Tuco

Andrew Le Grone. "Who?", you might ask. He is a Nebraska state senator from a small town/suburb outside of Omaha. He was appointed by our piece of shit governor, who was previously mentioned on this list. Last weekend, he sent out a flyer attacking his opponent, Jen Day. But he is such a fucking moron that he outsourced his campaign to other morons in Florida, and they used a picture of one her volunteers in the flyer. (This woman is also one of my wife's friends, and she doesn't need this shit.) Le Grone couldn't even muster an apology for attacking the wrong person, nor did he warn anyone that another set of flyers with Brooklynne's picture was coming out a couple of days later. He's an incompetent moron, appointed to a legislative position because of his political connections instead of any of his own merit. He can fuck off. link

Judaism has been reclassified as a nationality per Trump's executive order.

It's pretty funny that the "get mitch" donation gives money to 12 Dems, but doesn't include McGrath. I just matched your donation.

I think one of things it does is highlights wealth inequality in the country. A billionaire can come in and pay off the legal debts of 32,000 people, without putting dent in his wealth.

The rules have changed since 2018? FWIW, I think the SC appointment helps Lindsey. He's running behind Trump in the state, so I assume people would look at him more favorable if he was more like Trump. Being a duplicitous fuck is more like Trump. It should turn some of those split tickets into straight party votes.

I'm going of what the county attorney stated when he initially chose to not press charges, but haven't read the statute itself.

But this the truly fucked up thing: if I understand the self-defense statute correctly, it wouldn't matter. The criteria is whether he believed his life was in danger. It is not whether that perception was justified. In that scenario, mental illness and racism could be used to support the defense, rather than the prosecution. The law needs to be revised. The way it is currently written, there is considerable overlap between what the shooter perceives and what is justifiable, which allows for considerable space for innocent people getting killed without any legal repercussions.

I imagine it varies from state to state. In Nebraska, they are there to observe for irregularities. They are not allowed to "electioneer" (wear political gear, hold political signs, or talk politics), They are not allowed to get within 8 feet of the voter books (so they can't read who has voted). I think there are ways they could jam up the voting speed, by challenging if folks are allowed to vote. Anyone can make that challenge, but the voter still votes, the challenge is just reviewed before it is counted. But, according to my poll worker training, challenges are very rare. I'm guessing the biggest thing they are looking for is that the end of lines are established right at the poll close time.

The bar owner, Jake Gardner, killed himself rather than turning himself in. Not the resolution I was expecting, but a resolution none the less.

Today's assignment: work in "I think it's a smelt" into a casual conversation.

So far, Trump has been fairly competent on the Supreme Court nomination. But I keep waiting for him to Trump it up. Most likely way is that he will vocalize some obvious extortion to the religious right: support me, donate to me, or I will nominate a liberal. Most hysterical way would be that he nominates someone the right wingers like, and then, after losing the election and before the nominee can be confirmed, he pulls the nomination out of spite.

Did you think he was saying Ohio would remain undecided in the final tally?

Clarification: ME-2 OR NE-2 win in that scenario. You said it correctly in your first post, but just wanted to clarify for folks skimming. Biden will win NE-2.

CQR Research (B-rated by 538) July 5th: Eastman 50 to Bacon 49 Biden 51 to Trump 44. DCCC targeting (B/C) May 10, 12 Eastman 48 to Bacon 47 Biden 52 to Trump 41 Sure, the polling is not extensive, but even skewed polling should be sufficient to understand that Biden is running ahead of Eastman in the district. But, please, continue to impress with your in depth analysis of "well, the Democrat House candidate didn't win in 2018, so...."

There have been zero quality polls there and Ds couldn't flip the congressional seat in 2018. Biden being favored there is an unreliable shot in the dark. I wouldn't hold your breath. Biden is running 5-8 points ahead of the progressive Dem candidate (Eastman) in NE-2. Yes, there is scant polling to confirm that, but I think most people would agree that Biden should do better against Trump, than Eastman (female progressive with a background in non-profits) will do against Bacon (former air force general, who campaigns towards the middle, while voting in line with GOP). Bacon knows this as well, which is why he is going everything he can to avoid saying Trump's name. Don Jr. stopped by yesterday to stump for Trump, and Bacon didn't say shit on any of his social media platforms about it. The Eastman/Bacon race was within 2 points at the midterm, which was a surprise, and that was before a pandemic and unemployment spike. It's a coin flip now. Prior to the '18 midterm, CQR had Bacon at +4 and +7. Same pollsters currently have Eastman at +1. Both parties have had this race on their top 10 list for over a year. As far as I can tell, neither Biden nor Trump have any appreciable ground force in the district. Biden is basically running his campaign through the Nebraska Democratic Party, in coordination with the Eastman campaign. I assume Trump's approach is similar. For my relatively Democratic area, I would say that Eastman signs outnumber Bacon signs 2:1, and Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 10:1. I can think of only five Trump signs I've seen on my walks, which is probably about a 3 mile radius. I see that as more of a sign of lack of voter engagement from the Trump campaign, rather than lack of voter interest, but who knows. My neighborhood is not a suburb, but is mainly white, educated, upper middle class, so a similar stereotype. It's not just an "unreliable shot in the dark" that Biden is favored in NE-2. But obviously it's not a lock. Lean blue makes sense. And speaking of outside money pouring into the race, if anyone wants to help my girl Eastman, and Biden by extension, here's a link to throw money at.

Update for those who paid attention to this story out of Omaha. The family's attorney was able to push for a grand jury. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that the grand jury would not recommend charges. Yesterday, we heard rumors that the GJ would announce yesterday. The cops told the business in downtown to close up early, and they set up barricades, in anticipation of a "riot" over a disappointing announcement. They ended up not announcing until today: manslaughter, terroristic threats, and use of a weapon to commit a felony. Apparently the shooter had shit on his phone that cast doubt on the self defense plea. But of course he did. Because it wasn't unanticipated, and he is the kind of guy to talk about how he is going to kill someone. (My speculation.) So along away from a verdict. But the backlash prompted a response, and that response led to a decision to convene a grand jury. And that grand jury found credible cause to recommend charges.

Who wants to bet that in the next 48 hours Rasmussen "corrects" their poll. There is a pattern: Rasmussen releases a wild point poll, Trump tweets about it, and within two days they correct it to be less rosy for Trump.

The idea that Congressmen "defend the second amendment" is flawed from the start, and is such a shitty deflection. Congressmen can't buttress the 2A from attacks, nor can they diminish it. The 2A is already law, and the Supreme Court has interpreted its extent. And that interpretation has allowed for reasonable gun control laws, including the limitations of what arms can be kept from the public. In the 1930s, we decided it made no sense that fully automatic weapons should be available for the public. Their sale was so strictly limited, that it is effectively a ban. The second amendment still stands. In the 90s, we decided that assault rifles could have their sale strictly limited. While we can argue about the appropriateness and adequacy of the definition of assault weapons, that limitation was not found to be in violation of the 2A. There is nothing a Congressman can do about that interpretation, or further interpretations on the subject. Since then, Congress has refused to work within the legislative space allowed by the 2A interpretation. It has nothing to do with Constitutional rights, and everything to do with lobbying. They could make society a safer place, without infringing on the 2A, but they have refused to do so. And every year that goes by, technology improves and the weapons get better at what they were designed to do: allow a single person to kill a large number of his fellow citizens. Is there anyone out there who would prefer to use a 1930s era "tommy gun" in a fight over a modern, legal, AR-15 with extended clip? The current legal weapons are more lethal than what America decided to effectively outlaw 90 years ago. Gun control is not a radical idea. Refusing to deal with the issue is.

To follow up on targeted ads, I just saw a Biden one on the side banner for RealClearPolitics. It talked about the effect of Covid in Omaha, juxtaposing Trump speeches minimizing it with negative headlines, including one for the closing of a popular diner. That's pretty solid.

I’ve seen quite a few of Trump ads on YouTube. I’m not the target audience, which makes it a little weird that I see so many of them. I looked at some left wing blogger talking about the Dem candidate I’m supporting, and got a Trump ad. Whatever targeting algorithm they use, it casts a huge fucking net. And the ad is this completely over the top, poorly produced, nonsense with Harris cackling as a city burns in the background. So I don’t think it is a good ad targeting even swing voters. Maybe Biden is under-utilizing the platform, but it doesn’t appear to me that Trump is using it efficiently at all.

What about their Supreme Courts? Wisconsin SC just put a hold on sending out absentee ballots, until they can decide on whether the Green candidate should be added. Decided right down partisan lines. CNN

One of Rudy's buddies in Ukraine is being sanctioned for trying to influence US elections. The fact the US intel accused him of this was reported in August. Mnuchin sounding surprising direct on the press release. From a different article:

My theory is that Rasmussen puts out the non-pro-Trump polls so they can use them as a baseline later, and indicate momentum. Four weeks from now, their story will be how much ground Trump has made up since early September.

1. Vote by mail will be starting soon in many states. 2. Funds raised after mid October are hard to deploy in any impactful way. 3. I'm guessing there is a lot more load to blow yet.

Regarding MN/WI vs. PA, OH, MI, it certainly could be noise, but, it's also worth noting that MN and WI have had significant police/BLM protests. So, there is that correlation, but who knows on causation.