Tuco

Even if both of you are right, medically speaking, it would only take one bad news story - some picture of a half of dozen Biden volunteers piling into a van, someone who gets seriously sick that is linked to canvassing, whatever - to completely torpedo Biden's message on Coronavirus.

I don't think Biden can let states fall by the wayside, but it would be running against brand for Biden to start up door to door canvassing, while campaigning on a policy of taking the outbreak seriously. Trump could go out, knock door to door, kiss people on the lips, and grab them by their pussies, and no one would say shit, because it is completely in line with what we know about him. Biden cannot. It would mean one of two things: 1) he is only pretending to be concerned about the virus, or 2) he is willing to risk the lives of his volunteers and voters to win. It's a disadvantage, and phone banking is an inadequate replacement, but I don't see what alternative he has.

I guess we’ve confirmed that GR and JR have similar critical thinking skills.

As loathsome as Trump is, there are legitimate reasons why lower income workers would favor him. While I disagree with protectionist trade policies I can see why it would be appealing to a guy working in a slowly shrinking factory. While I disagree with stricter immigration policies, particularly the cruelty which Trump endorses, I can see why a roofer might find it appealing. But, while that may demonstrate a political advantage of courting these voters with these policies, I don't think it is a viable platform, long term, for the Republican Party. It's one thing push a steel tariff. It's another thing to deal with the consequences - higher construction costs, retaliation by other countries against our ag products, etc.. Long term, I don't see the GOP sticking with a protectionist trade policy. I think they are also going to get pushed by big business on immigration. If the low-income workers dream comes true - if wages really increased because of stricter immigration - it means that corporations are paying more. The Republicans have not been very successful in maintaining a big tent, and it would be really difficult for the GOP to cater to both the low income workers and the wealthy who would be paying them more. And we know who funds the Party. Assuming Trump loses, and I believe he will, and assuming the GOP loses ground in the House, the Senate, and state governments, and I think they will, the Trump model will proven to be a failure. Certainly both parties will work to court the Trump voter. But these are not well thought out policies and they do not benefit a majority of people in the country. It's not just bad policies; it's bad politics.

To put it a little differently, we are currently averaging two to three 911s a week. Iraq should be very nervous.

Per Open Secrets, she had 90k on hand versus Williams' 1.25M, as of June 30th (end of quarter). So, she has some ground to make up. Fortunately, it isn't all about the money, but money certainly helps. Next quarter reporting should be interesting to see how much candidates raised, and from who. My impression is that there is just money flowing on both sides. The system fucking sucks.

Let's be clear what language Silver uses: 31 of the 100 models show Trump winning. I didn't read his thread, but unless he said all of those models are equally probable, he is not saying Trump has a 31% chance of winning. He likely runs a model that has Trump getting x,y,z percentages of demographics X,Y,Z, and then that equates to state results. While those x,y,z percentages may be reasonable, I assume he is testing the models at the book ends of likelihood - out to some standard deviation - for xyz. If he was only running models at what he expects to happen, at standard deviation equals zero, there would only be one model to run. - Correction: he runs 40,000 simulation which creates 100 maps. Doesn't mean each simulation is equally probable, and sure as shit doesn't mean each unique result is equally probable.

It's been said many times, but let me repeat : Fucking Florida.

At least with the primaries, vote by mail ballots that were received prior to election day were counted prior to election day, or maybe just prior to the close of polls. The results were announced much quicker than other elections. I'm not sure why it would be different for the general. And I doubt most Democrats will hold onto their ballots until election day.

I love it when Congressmen reference Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. So....you're an unqualified stooge who was installed by the political machine to rubber stamp corrupt legislation? Sounds about right. (Yes, Smith does redeem himself, and America, by the end.)

How do we split between the urban and rural communities? Because that's where the split is. There isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the voting public in a mid-size city in Nebraska compared to a mid-sized city in Illinois. I've lived in both. The difference between Nebraska and Illinois is the percentage of the population that lives in urban communities. California could split from the Union, and you'd still have the divide between the urbanized coast and the rural valley.

A thin layer of mayo applied to the bun can help protect the bun from soaking in juices from the burger and other condiments. But, it's enough to really taste, jesus, work in a salad now and again. Nobody needs a gob of fat applied to a burger.

Pro-tip: if your apartment smells like sewage, you should definitely have that addressed, regardless if we are in a pandemic. The gases in a waste system are isolated from interior spaces by water traps. For your toilet, that's the water in the bowl itself. For your sink, that's your J-trap. If those dry out from disuse, there is no longer a trap and gases can leak into the interior spaces. That's why it's good to pour a glass of water in your floor drain in your basement every once in a while. Also, the sewage gases are vented through the roof. If those roof vents are too close to an intake on HVAC equipment, that can be bad as well.

Yeah, it's good to have a burner email for that.

Regardless of the reality, it's important to the Republicans to depict this race as a very close that could easily go either way. Not only does that motivate potential voters to vote for down ballot candidates, it also increases donations - the life blood of the party. Regardless of the reality, it's important to the Democrats to depict this race as a very close that could easily go either way. Not only does that motivate potential voters to vote for down ballot candidates, it also increases donations - the life blood of the party. I have my opinion of what the reality is, but I don't have a ton of confidence in that opinion. I do know that if you are looking at political parties or politicians for signs on whether this will be a close race, you are mainlining marketing strategies.

Kenosha is basically a suburb. It was a town with its own identity, but its growth over the last 30 years has been surburban sprawl. As of 2010, 100k residents, 77% white. I had a buddy who lived in Kenosha, so I've been there many times. Boring as hell. Which makes the idea that the cops need a fucking tank so much more absurd.

Four years ago the debate was about whether a player kneeling during the anthem should be suspended.

Let's don't forget the cops who gave armed, untrained, unregulated civilians water and told them they appreciated them coming out to help in an extremely volatile situation.

Fucking Illinois Bastard.

Donald Trump shakes the hand of the man who won him the evangelical vote in the primary.

Again. It happened four years ago, in Milwaukee, in August.

Who do I hate? Bernie? I saw him speak in Omaha in 2017 and was very impressed. I think his push on economic progressive ideas could be competitive in 50 states. Warren? Do you how many fucking Warren coffee mugs I have in my house? I don’t. Don’t confuse the acknowledgement of the current reality as a preference for it. Biden was not my first, second, or third pick, but I understand that he was not chosen in some back room. People like him, and many of them are scared about the political viability of many of the progressive proposals.

Can someone explain to me how the Obama "cracked skulls" and how the party "rigged" the primary for Joe? The DNC couldn't get laid at a whore house. Neither could the state or county organizations. The campaigns are better run and frequently better financed than the party organizations. There is a reason that Hillary's campaign had to loan money to the DNC. And it's not like Biden conquered a field of progressive. Primary after primary, state after state, moderate candidates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klob) got more votes than progressive candidates (Sanders, Warren). The reality is that the Democratic Party (the voters) is the most progressives it's every been, has become considerably more progressive in the last four years, and it is still fairly moderate.

About Biden’s “underwhelming” primary, let’s remember that he won, in a crowded field, and had pretty much secured the nomination after Super Tuesday. While a lot of people, myself included, were thinking he was toast after Iowa, his team demonstrated they understood electoral strategy better than the pundits.

The Dems have a great advantage over the Republicans: they aren't pretending that everything is normal. Because of this, the Dems were able to create something different. The Republicans will likely just shoot for imitation of normalcy, which will come across as cheap and forced.