Tuco

They get the same number of votes as Nobel Prize winners. Should any campaign ignore idiots?

Do you want a transcript of his statement? Cuz all I’m finding is FoxNews sources. And context of a sentence like that would be pretty important.

For me we have two major data points for Trump presidential elections: 2016 and 2020. In those events, we have three main variables: Trump, Dem Candidate, and the public. I think 2024 is the worst version of Trump. Not only is he personally deteriorated, his campaign is garbage. In the past two elections, the GOP attachment brought some competent logistics. That seems lacking today. He had women advising him. Ivanka is sitting this one out. Kelly Anne Conway is a minor character in this chapter. And I think that has made a difference in how he talks about women. Just techbro incel nonsense now. I think the Harris campaign is the best version of a Dem campaign I have seen. It’s not just Harris, although she is good. KamalaHQ, the dynamic DNC, etc. My big concern is America. If Trump wins, it will demonstrate a real rapid decline over the last 8 years.

Right now, I am thinking there is a 30% chance Trump wins a close one, 30% chance Harris wins a close one, and 40% chance Harris wins in a blowout. I have decided to follow this election closely, despite knowing how crushed I will be if Trump wins. I figure I was already crushed a few months ago after watching the Biden debate. Worst case scenario is I got an extra 4 months of hope before 4 years of distraction and despair. Best case scenario is I get to watch America turn the page on this stupid, ugly chapter. This is Midway, and I can’t stop watching now.

That means 50R/49D/1I - assuming Allred or Tester doesn't pull it out, correct?

So he tells Californian Republicans that he is going to withhold money for fighting forest fires, and they cheer?

I was going to put up some other contenders. Then I watched the 45 minute speech. Yeah, he's the best speaker of our generation.

Spit it out.

And frankly, there aren’t a lot of up and coming Dems that are itching to get hammered in a statewide race. In 2020, none of the three primary candidates had previously held elected office. This year, there are actually two Senate races and the Dems put up Preston Love against billionaire asshole Pete Ricketts. Preston is a local civil rights activist; good guy, he takes high schoolers to the Deep South on civil rights history tours. But he knows he has no shot. It’s not a race worth even mentioning. It’s hard to even find information on it. At best, it’s a race that helps with Gotv in North Omaha. At worst, it drives Republicans to the polls. So, it’s pretty easy for Dems in Nebraska to concede the race and hope an Independent fills the void. I think in Texas, the right candidate has a shot against Cruz. So recruiting a Dem isn’t as hard.

Do you have an alternate title for the package of economic policies? (I think, by nature, a package of campaign policies is going to sound artificial. Because they are campaign promises.)

Don't care. Had environmental protections gutted.

Could you imagine the level of inflation in the construction industry if we tried to double our electrical capacity in 12 months? They'd be knocking down skyscrapers for the steel and copper. Pipe fitters would be making more than heart surgeons. He is just so profoundly stupid.

And if states were incentivized to have their citizens votes.

Or

He was trying to distract from his speech. 4-D chess.

Looking at 538, there doesn't appear to be any Dem pollsters on swing states. It's almost like Dems don't want to push optimistic polling.

Yeah, I don't want Harris to be parsing out how much she supports human rights for trans people or prisoners. 1) she is (hopefully) more progressive than the average voter 2) it's not really something I want to see her negotiate on, 3)the average voter will eventually change, 4) for anyone for which it is a deal breaker, they will have dozens of other excuses to not vote for her. Nobody is looking at their ballot saying "hm, economy, abortion, and prisoner sex changes - those are my issues."

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin. There has to be a paper trail on it. Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA. But Biden has access to it and can release it. If it is exists. It's possible the story is wrong. It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. I don't think we are reading the polling the same way. Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9) So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it. I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners." Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows. We are a stupid people.

Agreed on Harris 19 vs. now. Different kind of race. Also, her "failure" was that she ran out of money. Not an issue here. And that failure netted her a vp slot on the ticket, leading to being a vp to an elderly president, and presidential nomination four years later. I wish all my failures were so productive. Regarding Walz, I think people underestimate his value in NE-2 (he is a native Nebraska and his trip electrified the district) and Wisconsin (shares a border with Minnesota and parts of the state get Minneapolis media). Even Michigan is probably helped with the upper Midwest vibe. Harris being from California might make those states a bigger reach.

Maybe Putin likes "The Manchurian Candidate"

Which is why I brought up FARA.

Could also be interesting from a FARA perspective, which has been enforced several times in recent years. But I assume it would need to be shown that Trump got payment for it. Recent notable cases

On the "Trump sending Covid tests to Russia" thing, just to be clear, these were not the little litmus test strips. These were the testing machines. To the dictator of a country who was under heavy sanctions.

Elder care is such a mess. Ignoring all the stress and challenges in health care, and just focused on money: It amazes me how many folks are strongly opposed to the estate tax, but have no idea what affect elder care has on middle class generational wealth.

The story on how he wasn't taking calls from Biden/Harris was starting to pick up steam. If this next Hurricane is as bad as it looks, I think he realized it would damage his career more than Harris's. Three things about the betting markets: 1. As with any binary prediction on the election, it can't be wrong. If Trump has a 1% chance of winning, and he does, then that 1% paid off. 2. It's basically the median opinion of the public. If I trusted the public's median opinion, then I wouldn't have to worry about this election. Roughly half the voting public thinks Donald Trump was a competent President. It boggles the fucking mind how stupid we are. The gambling sites are pulling from the same absurd think tank. What kind of odds can I get that in the next year, it will be announced that we have diplomatic relations with several alien species? 3. Even the people that bet on those markets believe they are wrongs on the odds. There would be no reason to bet otherwise.