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Tuco

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Everything posted by Tuco

  1. Looking at 538, there doesn't appear to be any Dem pollsters on swing states. It's almost like Dems don't want to push optimistic polling.
  2. Yeah, I don't want Harris to be parsing out how much she supports human rights for trans people or prisoners. 1) she is (hopefully) more progressive than the average voter 2) it's not really something I want to see her negotiate on, 3)the average voter will eventually change, 4) for anyone for which it is a deal breaker, they will have dozens of other excuses to not vote for her. Nobody is looking at their ballot saying "hm, economy, abortion, and prisoner sex changes - those are my issues."
  3. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin. There has to be a paper trail on it. Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA. But Biden has access to it and can release it. If it is exists. It's possible the story is wrong. It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. I don't think we are reading the polling the same way. Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9) So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it. I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners." Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows. We are a stupid people.
  4. Agreed on Harris 19 vs. now. Different kind of race. Also, her "failure" was that she ran out of money. Not an issue here. And that failure netted her a vp slot on the ticket, leading to being a vp to an elderly president, and presidential nomination four years later. I wish all my failures were so productive. Regarding Walz, I think people underestimate his value in NE-2 (he is a native Nebraska and his trip electrified the district) and Wisconsin (shares a border with Minnesota and parts of the state get Minneapolis media). Even Michigan is probably helped with the upper Midwest vibe. Harris being from California might make those states a bigger reach.
  5. Maybe Putin likes "The Manchurian Candidate"
  6. Which is why I brought up FARA.
  7. Could also be interesting from a FARA perspective, which has been enforced several times in recent years. But I assume it would need to be shown that Trump got payment for it. Recent notable cases
  8. On the "Trump sending Covid tests to Russia" thing, just to be clear, these were not the little litmus test strips. These were the testing machines. To the dictator of a country who was under heavy sanctions.
  9. Elder care is such a mess. Ignoring all the stress and challenges in health care, and just focused on money: It amazes me how many folks are strongly opposed to the estate tax, but have no idea what affect elder care has on middle class generational wealth.
  10. The story on how he wasn't taking calls from Biden/Harris was starting to pick up steam. If this next Hurricane is as bad as it looks, I think he realized it would damage his career more than Harris's. Three things about the betting markets: 1. As with any binary prediction on the election, it can't be wrong. If Trump has a 1% chance of winning, and he does, then that 1% paid off. 2. It's basically the median opinion of the public. If I trusted the public's median opinion, then I wouldn't have to worry about this election. Roughly half the voting public thinks Donald Trump was a competent President. It boggles the fucking mind how stupid we are. The gambling sites are pulling from the same absurd think tank. What kind of odds can I get that in the next year, it will be announced that we have diplomatic relations with several alien species? 3. Even the people that bet on those markets believe they are wrongs on the odds. There would be no reason to bet otherwise.
  11. I assume there must a big donor private fundraiser after.
  12. ….and he should lose votes for it being a shitty costume. It’s a red jacket and blackface. Fucking lazy. If it wasn’t for the pose, he could have claimed it was Eddie Murphy. At least have a white glove or a young boy.
  13. You can accurately describe it as blackface. That is not editorializing. Wearing dark makeup to look like a black person is wearing blackface. I agree there are various levels associated with blackface that affect how bad it is, as is the timing. I agree that this doesn’t seem egregious, particularly since any parody of Michael Jackson has little overlap with black stereotypes. But, considering the historical association with blackface, it’s pretty much assumed offensive today, unless there is a very good reason.
  14. She doesn't like Italian food.
  15. A rather long article on Walz's trip to China. For a bonus, you get a front page picture of him trying to tear down the goalposts when Nebraska beat OU.
  16. What's cool about that is I doubt they suddenly realized that Democratic policies are better for the economy than Republican policies. That would take considerable reprogramming. Instead this is an indictment of his competence.
  17. I can't say I actually like James Carville. It's been 30 years and I am still figuring it out. But he has to be one of my top five people I'd like to get drunk with. "We've had engineers weigh in; the man is incapable of wiping his ass."
  18. Right, they could avoid the handling fees by just tweeting the Red Cross link and a plea to donate. That would make sense, unless you really like handling fees.
  19. So, they are hoping he will utilize his position as president in a way that benefits him (and them) personally. Awesome.
  20. Yeah, let's talk math here. If she is not primaried by 2026, that means at least 25% of the voting citizens in a congressional district believes she is the best they could do. Because, this isn't just about voting party lines. In a safe district, the real election is at the primary, and half of those voters picked her. That is how shitty the Republican Party is.
  21. Dude, I cannot handle this kind of stress every four years. We are one Wall Street crash away from that semi-sentient turd having the keys to the White House, again. I long for the days that having someone like John McCain in the office is my biggest fear.
  22. At which pointed JD Vance pointed out the government overreach and stifling regulations inflicted on the poor, white citizens of Springfield.
  23. If that's the case, it would make sense to nationalize the the company. Private companies either make money or cut head count.
  24. I think a lot of it will depend on how the election goes. If they pick up the Senate and stay close in the House, they may continue with the nonsense. But if they don't win the Senate and lose a bunch of seats in the House, there will need to be a change. Losing is the biggest sin in politics.
  25. I think she is just trying to sell a book. She does not give a shit about the election.
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