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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by The Dog

  1. what's normal turnout for those districts (for a pres election year)
  2. I'd make MN dark blue and AZ/GA light blue. Otherwise this seems supported by what we're seeing:
  3. That Siena poll also found that low-propensity voters favor Trump slightly (not a surprise - these are the "Trump Only" voters IMHO). But late deciders are breaking for Harris - not a surprise, as Trump is flailing (and saying stupid shit that hurts his campaign) and Harris is working overtime to reach out to these voters.
  4. The surprise to me is how blue Wilco is north of Round Rock. There are great opportunities for the TDP to flip some more offices here but the incumbents from the GOP keep getting re-elected due to the power of incumbency. That and people here are still pretty conservative - they just don't like crazy.
  5. Here's how Collin County voted since 2000 in presidential elections: and Denton:
  6. She's winning them by even more if you are referring to what I posted - those numbers are for all early voters in those states. but your point remains valid. the more surveys of people who have actually voted the clearer the picture will be - one way or another.
  7. Got to wonder how many are Haley voters who crossed over as well. Haley's performance in the various primaries: NC: 23% GA: 13% (withdrawn) AZ: 18% (withdrawn) Most Haley voters will "hold their nose" and vote for Trump, but a number will sit it out and another group will cross over. Also specific to NC - Robinson is a massive drag on the ballot for the GOP. GOP should have an election day edge so keep that in mind. Still, looks like Harris might be building a decent sized firewall in these states if this Marist poll is accurate.
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