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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    He doesn't have immunity due to running a campaign.

    I am planning to watch with anticipation how the GOP handles kicking Trump to the side without alienating MAGA. I can't imagine they will enthusiastically entertain a Trump run when he's 82. 

    They can't. They've given complete control of the party over to Trump and his family. They ARE the GOP now.

    They did that because when Trump's on the ballot the MAGA crazies show up at the polls and it helps them win - and if they cross him they get primaried by MAGA crazies. 

    13 minutes ago, 'stache said:

    I'm going to need help with this one. I know that he's doing everything he can to personally benefit as much as possible from campaign fundraising, but their reported funds are well into nine figures, and it seems his personal enrichment would be less from reported fundraising and more from Egypt, Russia, and other ways that aren't part of public records. If these bills were really a problem, it seems they could pay them pretty easily out of official campaign funds, or if other cities are using this to say no, prepay those cities for the rest of this cycle. The fact that Vance is on the trail confirms this in my mind, because wouldn't this be an issue for his appearances too?

    I think Trump's lack of campaigning is more about him being a fat unhealthy dementia riddled old fuck whose mental health is reeling after thinking he had a slam dunk and is now getting his ass spanked by a Black woman while his VP pick is being roasted nonstop and appears to be disliked even by many republicans. He also knows that his crowds have not been anywhere close to as big as Kamala's, and that appears to be some type of OCD topic for him and he'd rather rage tweet (truth whatever) from the shitter with bs about ai and actors to maintain the appearance of popularity. I don't think his ego can handle any more small crowds with the media constantly making comparisons to Harris/Walz's packed houses. 

    There are all kinds of theories but in the end, it's just about money and to a lesser extent his pride. 

    He's been spending tens of millions on legal fees through his PACs - that's money not available to the campaign now.

    The optics of Harris/Walz pulling bigger (and more enthusiastic) crowds makes him look bad and hurts his pride in a big way. That crazy suggestion that Kamala's crowds were "AI generated" was a pretty big tell IMHO.

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  2. 6 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

    Looking at their schedule, I would hammer the under:

    • vs. NDSU - should probably win but could very easily lose
    • @ Nebraska - I think Rhuel in year 2 handles them easily
    • @ Colorado State - should have lost to them at home last year. Very easily could lose
    • vs. Baylor - will Baylor have a bounce-back year? This looks like their best/easiest chance for a conference win on paper
    • @ UCF - they will get blasted
    • vs. K-State - loss
    • @ Arizona - loss
    • vs. Cincy - best chance outside of Baylor for a conference win
    • @ Texas Tech - probably a loss
    • vs. Utah - loss
    • @ KU - loss
    • vs. OSU - loss

    Honestly I think the absolute best case for them at this point is 4-8.  Wins vs. NDSU and CSU in non-conference and then 2 conference wins from Baylor, Cincy and maybe Texas Tech.

    The train wreck version is probably lose all three non-conference games and win maybe 1 Big 12 game.

    I think 3-9 is probably about the most likely outcome.

     

    CU was Charmin-soft last year. Those first three teams are physical and will push them around. Very good chance they start 0-3. 

  3. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces have taken more than 1,000 square kilometers in the Kursk Region. This is almost double of what I have tracked so far. Reminder, my maps are adjusted primarily by visual confirmation and reflect the lower/conservative end of estimated Ukrainian gains. General Syrskyi’s statements are also in range with Russian claims.

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  4. "Remember that the only unit that tried to chase Wagner as they broke off the front and moved through Rostov were the Chechens. There is no depth in the Russian reserves. The Chechens normally flee when attacked ( several examples, including in Kursk). The other forces on the Russian border are border police, conscripts and maybe some small groups of infantry. Russia assumed the border would not be attacked. This was illustrated by the earlier attacks in Belograd by the "Free Russia" small units that seemed to give the Russians problems. The entire border is only lightly defended (see current ISW report). Once loose beyond the border, AFU can go pretty where they want. So Russia is faced with looking in every direction from the Ukrainian salient and also facing possible border break-outs elsewhere on their front. This is combined arms maneuver warfare which requires tight command & control, mobility, and situational awareness. All qualities in limited supply in the Russian army in its best of times. The real test is when does the Russian army start "breaking" in large numbers. If we see major unit surrenders and failure of units to follow orders, you will know it has started."

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