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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by The Dog

  1. More relevant than the polling IMHO if they are able to get the hard data. SoS offices don't know who you voted for but they know if you voted. The gap will close on election day but now we know why Charlie Kirk was freaking out.
  2. As long as the methodology is sound then there's nothing wrong with it. It's just a really small sample and we know the early vote in PA is heavily Democratic. So not sure how many GOP people were surveyed - hence the large MOE. her lead could be even larger or Trump could be ahead (very unlikely on the latter due to VBM splits.) At any rate, I just don't trust it right now. Like I said earlier - PA is the only state where Trump has any ground game (that wasn't outsourced to Elon) so a larger-than-expected margin for Harris would be a surprise.
  3. That stupid EV poll has a 9.1% MOE. It's trash.
  4. One note about that Gallup poll is that it's a survey of adults rather than registered voters. So take with a grain of salt.
  5. That NBC story raises an interesting question: Why is he campaigning in states that are considered uncompetitive? As the article says, they either have quality polling that says that the Rust Belt states are wrapped up, or he's calling the shots and ignoring everything else. I'd tend to favor the latter as that's historically been his MO and that he has no ground game in the Rust Belt other than Pennsylvania. There's nobody on the ground in the other states to tell them that all is going great. Looking back at 2016, Hillary's campaign had a decent ground game in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania who all were trying to send the message that she wasn't in great shape in those states in spite of the polls. The problem was the message didn't get through due to serious incompetence and arrogance in her national campaign. Trump threads the needle and here we are.
  6. Ohio gave us Jim Jordan and Vance. That state is full MAGA. It ain’t going blue. Florida is full of MAGA transplants from other states and DeSantis is harassing anyone with a Harris sign. Both states are locks for Trump unless something extraordinary happens.
  7. The Dog

    USMNT 2024

    MOTM too.
  8. Hi there we're Fox News and we're herding like everyone else:
  9. This has the potential for being a massive own-goal by the Trump campaign. Trump himself has said he "doesn't need" their votes, but they could cost him the election. The Harris campaign has an entire operation around recruiting Haley voters to cross over - working with groups like the Lincoln Project, Republicans Against Trump, and The Bulwark. It's not the focus of their canvassing efforts, but there's more of an effort here than people realize.
  10. Take with a large grain of salt:
  11. there are still late undecideds out there (believe it or not). while it shouldn't hurt Harris, it doesn't help.
  12. Biden's comment was an own goal that is overshadowing Harris' speech. Don't try to whitewash it.
  13. idiots who are voting in their last election if Trump wins.
  14. Trump must leave the stage. He's the glue holding it together. When that happens, who takes over? Does Laura stick around and continue to siphon off money to the family, or do they leave and find their next grift? Until we know either of these things the GOP is stuck with MAGA.
  15. Anecdotal but we know a wife of a GOP voter who isn't telling her husband her intention to vote for Harris. We know another couple who are getting divorced over this. Anyone who thinks this isn't a thing is in denial and needs an education.
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