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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

    That takes the same chance Hillary took; assume you win the Midwest and go for the blowout.  Fuck that.

    He's already spent a ton of time there (Hillary famously never visited one of them - Michigan?) and has district-level polls that show his lead is secure. 

    I really want to know what the district-level polls say in Texas. Bloomberg found something which is why he's spending money here on Biden's behalf. 

  2. Nate admitting (to his credit, I might add) that shit may be borked in their Hispanic sample. Also, something I've wondered about this is that there really hasn't been much polling in Texas, so they are learning on the go. 

    Now that it appears that Texas is approaching "swing state" status the pollsters are going to have to make the time and investment here to be accurate. And that's going to be very expensive for them as well as the candidates who now need to actually campaign here. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
  3. So about that NYT poll:

    They had Trump pulling 34% of the Hispanic vote. The UT-Tyler survey had Trump receiving 21% of the Hispanic vote. 

    Someone can check the math but I applied the UT-Tyler percentage to the NYT sample and it flips the poll from Trump +4 to Biden +2. 

    UT-Tyler also had a smaller percentage of Hispanic respondents in their sample (NYT had 26% while UT-Tyler's was 22%).

    The point is we are seeing a large variation in Trump support among Hispanic respondents and nobody is getting a good handle on how to properly survey them. 

     

    • Like 2
  4. 1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

    Does anybody know how NYT/Siena do their likely-voter screen/weighting? 

    IIRC Cohn said they don't put any special weight on people who have already voted over those who say they will (or meet the criteria for being a likely voter). I don't agree with that personally but these guys know what they are doing so who am I to question it?

    • Haha 1
  5. 1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

    Watching the Sunday shows and Texas wasn't even on their radar until Matt Down said Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump does winning PA or MI.  They looked at him like he had two heads.  

    The media (news, political, and sports) all live in a complete geographic bubble.

    Agreed - I'm shocked how much this has flown under the radar. 

  6. 2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

    Dave Roberts was sucked back into trusting Jansen like your ex saying, “this time will be different baby”.  They should have left the guy throwing 100 miles per hour in.  Beats Jansen’s slop.

    Roberts doesn't realize that Marwin broke Jansen three years ago. He hasn't been the same since.

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