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Posts posted by The Dog
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1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:
That takes the same chance Hillary took; assume you win the Midwest and go for the blowout. Fuck that.
He's already spent a ton of time there (Hillary famously never visited one of them - Michigan?) and has district-level polls that show his lead is secure.
I really want to know what the district-level polls say in Texas. Bloomberg found something which is why he's spending money here on Biden's behalf.
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2 hours ago, horncyclist said:
This can't hurt:
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3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:
Pennsylvania can’t even start counting their votes until Election Day.
and the votes they will be counting during the day will be overwhelmingly for Biden, so Trump will be behind.
He's going to change his tune when that occurs.
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LOL Twitter has flagged the tweet as misleading.
And Trump is going to need those days if he's behind.
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Not sure if already posted. Great tool from the NYT tracking who donated to which candidate by zip code from the NYT:
The Two Americas Financing the Trump and Biden Campaigns
Instructive on which states and which areas will go to each candidate. Follow the money, as they say.
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Nate admitting (to his credit, I might add) that shit may be borked in their Hispanic sample. Also, something I've wondered about this is that there really hasn't been much polling in Texas, so they are learning on the go.
Now that it appears that Texas is approaching "swing state" status the pollsters are going to have to make the time and investment here to be accurate. And that's going to be very expensive for them as well as the candidates who now need to actually campaign here.
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So about that NYT poll:
They had Trump pulling 34% of the Hispanic vote. The UT-Tyler survey had Trump receiving 21% of the Hispanic vote.
Someone can check the math but I applied the UT-Tyler percentage to the NYT sample and it flips the poll from Trump +4 to Biden +2.
UT-Tyler also had a smaller percentage of Hispanic respondents in their sample (NYT had 26% while UT-Tyler's was 22%).
The point is we are seeing a large variation in Trump support among Hispanic respondents and nobody is getting a good handle on how to properly survey them.
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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:
Does anybody know how NYT/Siena do their likely-voter screen/weighting?
IIRC Cohn said they don't put any special weight on people who have already voted over those who say they will (or meet the criteria for being a likely voter). I don't agree with that personally but these guys know what they are doing so who am I to question it?
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Road map to a blue Texas in 2020
Some light reading before the release of the NYT poll.
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If that TX-3 poll is even remotely accurate then Trump is in serious trouble in Texas.
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17 minutes ago, horncyclist said:
Quality NYTimes/Sienna poll of Texas coming out at 1 PM ET. Had Trump up 3, 46-43 back in September. Will be interesting if it's tied with other recent polls. That Kamala's making a trip probably means their internals show it within reach too.
Just came here to post this. Follow Cohn's twitter for the release.
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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
How did they increase by 17%? Texas State can't exactly lower their standards any more, otherwise they'd turn into aggy.
Cheap housing - the draw of Hays County.
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f me
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6 minutes ago, LTbear said:
How do those idiotic emails work on anyone
I see these in my junk email folder from time to time. They're hilarious.
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New Jersey hates everyone.
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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:
Watching the Sunday shows and Texas wasn't even on their radar until Matt Down said Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump does winning PA or MI. They looked at him like he had two heads.
The media (news, political, and sports) all live in a complete geographic bubble.
Agreed - I'm shocked how much this has flown under the radar.
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11 hours ago, Sbbruin said:
That wasn’t Jansen’s fault at all.
Yeah it was - he didn't back up his catcher. If he does then Arozarena is dead to rights and the game is going to extras. It was a comedy of errors but Jansen is as responsible as anyone.
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2 hours ago, slorch said:
I'll just posit one point to ponder... Why is there virtually zero animosity from Astros fans towards Tampa... you know... the team that actually defeated our beloved heroes?
This is why:
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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:
2-2 with kershaw up next. Resting easy, right dodger fans?
NO PROBLEM NOTHING BAD HAPPENS TO KERSHAW IN GAME FIVES!
https://www.mlb.com/news/clayton-kershaw-struggles-in-game-5-vs-astros-c260048344
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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:
Dave Roberts was sucked back into trusting Jansen like your ex saying, “this time will be different baby”. They should have left the guy throwing 100 miles per hour in. Beats Jansen’s slop.
Roberts doesn't realize that Marwin broke Jansen three years ago. He hasn't been the same since.
2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted
Wasserman really going out on a limb there...