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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 2 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

    According to this Florida can start verifying/counting Absentee and Mail ballots 22 days before the election.  I thought Florida was one of the states that expected to count quick and be called the night of the election.

    https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

     

    Yup - they changed the law so they could have the results on election night. Florida and Texas will have their results election night or the next day at the latest.

    Michigan and Pennsylvania decided to keep fucking that goat and could take longer. Idiots. 

  2. 2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

    Here, I'll try to help

    The Trump campaign cancelled all tv ads that had been bought in those three states for the period of 10/20 through 10/26.  They did this in spite of coordinating with the RNC previously on what commericals to run, etc.

    It's kind of a big deal.

    thanks - wish they'd worded the tweet that way it would make more sense. 

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  3. @BradInATX regarding Wisconsin: 

    Hillary was actually ahead by "more" than Biden is at this time (6.7 to 6.3) but her raw share in the RCP average was only 44.7% while Biden is at 49.9%. Hillary's final RCP average was 46.8% and she got 46.5% of the vote, so the pollsters nailed it when it came to her support. Where they were wrong was Trump - late decides and third party switchers brought him from 40.3% to 47.2%. 

    There's no question Biden will end up out-performing Hillary. The question I have is can Trump out-perform his 2016 vote share? If not then he's likely to lose Wisconsin.

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  4. 3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    They played it perfectly with the confirmation hearing. Picking the fight with Kavanaugh worked against them in a half dozen senate seats (didn't flip them all but didn't help anywhere) and it would have been uglier with Barrett for them if it went ugly.  GOP used to be able to count on Dems to be really stupid.  Looks like Dems figured out how not to be stupid.  

    They're waiting until after the election to be stupid. There's plenty of stupid in the Democratic party. 

  5. SurveyMonkey is trash and not very scientific. Whenever I see them pop up on 538 I use the slider to filter out the D or lower polls. 

    From 538 in 2018:

    Quote

    SurveyMonkey, which sometimes partners with FiveThirtyEight on non-election-related polling projects, conducted polling in all 50 states in 2016, asking about both the presidential election and races for governor and the U.S. Senate. Unlike some other attempts to poll all 50 states,1 SurveyMonkey took steps to ensure that each state was weighed individually and that respondents to the poll were located within the correct state. Thus, FiveThirtyEight treated these polls as we did any other state poll. Unfortunately, the results just weren’t good, with an average error2 of 7.3 percentage points and an Advanced Plus-Minus score of +2.3.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

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  6. 19 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    Can someone summarize why MJ is a great candidate to replace Cornyn?

    She's not, and that's the problem. We literally have no idea how she is going to vote on any issue, no matter what her campaign may say (and they have been deliberately vague). 

    Beto at least had a voting record - it was fairly moderate but still a bit too left for Texas 2 years ago. I think today he would crush Cornyn. 

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  7. Just now, UTHornFan014 said:

    This may seem like a noob questions, but I sent my registration in Travis county a couple weeks ago. I checked the status today and it says it is Valid from 10/31/2020 with an effective date of registration of 10/31/2020. Does that mean I can't won't until 10/31 or later?

    Sent from my HD1925 using Tapatalk
     

    If the lines aren't long you can go try to vote and see if you are already on the voter rolls - the poll workers should be able to tell you. You can definitely vote on election day. 

  8. 2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    I disagree with this. I don't think the democratic base has moved nearly as far as the republican base in the opposite direction. I do agree that this coalition can't last, because there's a lot of people who just aren't where the far progressive democrats want to go that are stuck in the middle with no viable option. 

    My point is the Rs haven't moved at all - the country as a whole has. 

    Take a look at what is now normal that didn't have broad support 20 years ago - abortion rights, gay marriage, environmental policies, etc. These have far more broad acceptance than they did 20-30 years ago and are now settled law. Republicans are still fighting these battles - battles that have already been won. They aren't winnable positions in current America, so they have to adjust.

  9. 10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    I mean, America is a fundamentally right of center nation.  It’s just that the traditional right of center party has become a hard right party. 

    I think America has shifted to the left and the Republicans are still stuck in the '80s-90s mentality more than anything else. It's masking how far the Democratic party base has moved. 

    We're going to see some realignment after the election. Neither the current Biden coalition or Trumpism are sustainable, so something has to break.

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