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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 9 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

    I wanna believe, brother. But there was no need for Rs to vote in March since Trump was the de facto candidate. I'd love to come back here on Nov 4th and say I underestimated the D turnout in Wilco.

    This was the results from two years ago: https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist331_county246.htm

    Wilco was already purple in 2018 and is only getting bluer the way things are going. Still think Carter holds on to his seat but there will be a "Biden effect" that will assist others.

    Adding 2016 for comparison: https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist319_county246.htm

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

    Even if it happens it's not the permanent change yet. Trump is a uniquely detestable person. The primary benefit for Democrats would be the State House if that flipped. 

    Regardless of the 2020 Texas Presidential outcome, the next decade or so will be political war in Texas. It shouldn't be taken for granted by either side for a while. 

    This is where I'm at too Huck. I think this is mostly due to Trump - similar to two years ago when Beto nearly beat Cruz but Abbott still won easily (for lack of a better analogy off the top of my head). 

  3. 15 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    Texas will not be called early on election night. We have a chance to make a statement that will resonate for decades/centuries. 

    It all depends on the numbers that come out of election day. Remember that Texas starts processing absentee ballots before election day, and jurisdictions with more than 100,000 voters can start counting at the end of the early election period. Unless it's just too close to call we'll know Texas on election night. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. 10 minutes ago, HillaryFan420 said:

    People talk a lot about Rays pitching, but Framber Valdez imo is the best pitcher that will take the mound in the ALCS and a healthy Greinke would be the second best.

    Framber has been a revelation. Hope he keeps it up.

  5. 7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx
     

    so- I’m on record as not trusting Gallup to tell me 90% of 7 year olds like ice cream. But... 56% of voters say better off than 4 year ago thats, interesting...

     

    Were it not for COVID I think this would be relevant, but Trump's response and his administration getting it is a game changer. Had COVID not occurred I think he gets re-elected fairly easily. 

  6. 4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    If both parties are paying attention to Texas, it’s within the MOE. Biden does not need Texas, but it would be quite a blow to Trump and the gop to win it, and to have that talking point for the next 2 years (4? Is there a senate race in ‘22?)

    I think Biden's ad buys here in Texas is telling that his campaign thinks he has at least a shot. And neither senator is up in 2022 - Cruz is up in 2024.

    Also, I think Pelosi threw Trump a lifeline today with the 25th amendment stuff. I don't think it's helpful to Biden.

  7. 10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    If those assumptions are wrong, then their results are wrong.

    Yup. And that's the only thing I think is possible here. There are two things I think could end up proving the polls wrong:

    1. That the vast majority of the 1.5 million newly registered voters vote for Biden (of those who actually show up)

    2. They are under-sampling suburban areas that are flipping Democratic (similar to under-sampling blue collar whites in 2016)

    But that's about it.

  8. 2 hours ago, immamac said:

    Donald trump isn't winning texas. 

    I know I posted an article saying this, but it's not showing up in the polls and Trump is polling at or near 50% even in the UT-Tyler polls. They're going to have to be way off on their sampling methodology for that to happen. 

    11 minutes ago, Bookman said:

    Not partisan gerrymandering.

    That's subjective and difficult to prove. Racial gerrymandering is much easier to argue. 

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