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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by The Dog

  1. Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway. Phbt here’s the rest:
  2. Regarding Quinnipac: Here is a long answer. So if you look at the spread of each pollster's results from survey to survey, in the same geography, Quinnipiac tends to be very high. Eg take the 9 point swing in 3 weeks compared to their last MI poll. It's fine if you get percentages moving by 4.5 points (margins by 9) between surveys on occasion, but it was 8 points before that in MI and 7 points poll-to-poll in their most recent national survey. This is high compared to other pollsters. Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics. None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases.
  3. Or they leave the top line blank or stay home. So at worst you get the same as convincing one D. At best you get double the benefit as you said.
  4. IMHO, what pollsters are struggling with is what you posted plus the "Trump only" voters who only show up when he's on the ballot. What's worse is many of this crowd will only vote for Trump and leave the rest of the ballot blank.
  5. I still think PA will be close but just to add this district has a Cook rating of R+5 and went for Dr Oz 49-48 in 2022. Also heavily for shapiro in 2022 so there's also that.
  6. a guess this is now the conspiracy theory thread? 3yearletterman found another kook to troll: INCOMING INTEL: FEMA is waving "ungodly" amounts of money at private security firms right now, begging for security contractors to station at Florida to PREVENT Floridians returning to their homes and businesses after the storm hits. The evacuation orders are to push people out of Florida and KEEP THEM OUT. Reportedly Delta Force personnel advising FEMA at the top, devising denial-of-area enforcement plans which will be enforced at gunpoint if required. I'm told FEMA is practically panicked to get enough armed personnel on site, anticipating a tremendous amount of resistance from displaced people who want to return home to salvage whatever they can. This is the next step up the escalation ladder as the federal government wages WAR against the American people, as we saw FEMA carrying out in NC, actively hindering rescue efforts to maximize starvation and death. To the people, do NOT escalate. Hold your ground peacefully and firmly. This looks a lot like a J6-style trap to provoke an insurrection and declare martial law to cancel the election. Don't play into their hands.
  7. Rumor was that Johnson didn't want to lose the game in London in front of the people he became friends with while he was ambassador to the UK. So this was likely the final straw for Saleh. Not that it matters - the Jets have bigger problems than their HC.
  8. stop bitching and move to the MAC. or use your B1G money to extend the runway. (I know it's more complicated than that.)
  9. oh gawd if that's the move then the Jets and Rodgers deserve all that is about to happen to them. and it's all bad.
  10. at least they aren't guilty of herding.
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