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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by The Dog

  1. The Dog
    double doink!
  2. The Dog
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  6. The Dog
    exactly. There are also a lot of "double haters' who will be willing to give her a chance. I cannot stress how important the Democratic National Convention will be - they need to knock it out of the park because everyone will be watching.
  7. The Dog
    This is worth a watch - good breakdown of her stump speech today:
  8. The Dog
    I finally looked up those crosstabs and all of the age demographic results were backwards. It has Harris beating Trump in the 60+ group. IMHO all of the polls before Biden withdrew likely treated Kamala like she was "Joe 2.0." She had no identity and wasn't an alternative since her boss was the presumptive nominee. They were joined at the hip. As Kamala defines herself (and Trump attempts to counter with his definition of her) we'll see where we land. The new poll that shows her up against Trump since then is also not very informative to me other than there appears to be a LOT of persuadable voters who were sick of Joe and are likely reconsidering their (very weak) support of Trump. 44-42 is basically the hard core D and R bases who will vote for whomever their party nominates. There's likely 15-20% up for grabs.
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  10. The Dog
    Tim Miller - former Republican opposition research - says this exact same thing:
  11. The Dog
    Longwell publishes The Bulwark - a group of never Trumpers who have bailed on the GOP.
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  13. The Dog
    Nah I think it's mislabeled. The overall in that poll is Trump +2 and then the crosstabs have him also winning Independents by 14. There's no way he's winning women and independents by those margins and only up by 2 in the overall. MAGA is running with it though.
  14. The Dog
    Nope. It was 8%. The 12% was black men, but dropped back down to 6% for the 2022 midterms. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/
  15. The Dog
    Christ, even this one is a doozy. Trump pulled 6% of the black vote in his WIN in 2016. He's not going to more than triple that number against a black woman.
  16. The Dog
    If this is in any way accurate then Trump wins in a landslide of historic proportions. Here's how that group (listed as 18-29; don't know why Quinnipac used 18-34) voted in the recent elections: 2012: Obama +23 2016: Hillabeast +30 (that demo only represented 13% of the electorate; the 50+ age groups represented 56% of the electorate and Trump won that demo handily). 2020: Biden +26 2022 midterms: Democrats +37 So this is either a typo, the worst sampling error of all time, or the greatest demographic shift of all time..
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  18. The Dog
    Cropped out the dude
  19. The Dog
    This goes here too:
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  22. The Dog
    And they kept that shit locked down and fell in line. How…Republican… 😎
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  24. The Dog
    I think people need to realize that Trump is the glue holding the GOP together because otherwise, it's a mess. The "civil war" within the party is only being held back by Trump. It's purely a cult of his personality. I didn't want Biden to drop out, but now I'm glad he did because so far the Democrats have handled the aftermath perfectly. Moreover, they have moved to a new generation with Kamala leading the charge. They are moving on, while the GOP is stuck in the mud.
  25. The Dog

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