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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by The Dog

  1. The Dog
    More on that Ohio poll:
  2. The Dog
    Sulu:
  3. The Dog
    Kinzinger piling on:
  4. The Dog
    How many own goals these doofuses gonna give us? Pete boosting the quote:
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    My interpretation: "We can't afford to be wrong about Trump for a third time but can afford to be wrong about Harris."
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    Because of this: Speaking of Georgia: My sister is Chairperson of Forsyth County Georgia Republicans for Harris Organization. In order to join, you must have voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. She currently has 1,345 members. Since the Liz Cheney comment last night, over 700 more women joined. They're all voting on Tuesday
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    At least they’re not herding:
  14. The Dog
    PA is also one of the very few states where Trump has a ground game. IIRC he has about the same number of offices there as Harris - but that may not be the case anymore.
  15. The Dog
    The first number also likely includes new arrivals from other states with many GOP/MAGA transplants. Like you said, the second number is more significant. As far as the Cheney story - it's at the top of my Google News feed, so it's getting coverage.
  16. The Dog
    Counterpoint: Narrator: Towns population: 12,500 Clayton population: 300,000
  17. The Dog
    That’s like using the 247 composite to drive recruiting decisions. They may actually be using the RCP average to decide where to go.
  18. The Dog
    "It's so weird because on the one hand, state/national polls are telling us it's a tied race and it's a literal coin flip But on the other hand, local/house polls are telling us Harris is running at or ahead of Biden's 2020 result - On top of doing better with groups like white-college voters than Biden, which would suggest she's winning pretty easily"
  19. The Dog
    I don't think Soto gets more than Ohtani did. He might get close due to his age.
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    More relevant than the polling IMHO if they are able to get the hard data. SoS offices don't know who you voted for but they know if you voted. The gap will close on election day but now we know why Charlie Kirk was freaking out.
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    As long as the methodology is sound then there's nothing wrong with it. It's just a really small sample and we know the early vote in PA is heavily Democratic. So not sure how many GOP people were surveyed - hence the large MOE. her lead could be even larger or Trump could be ahead (very unlikely on the latter due to VBM splits.) At any rate, I just don't trust it right now. Like I said earlier - PA is the only state where Trump has any ground game (that wasn't outsourced to Elon) so a larger-than-expected margin for Harris would be a surprise.

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