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Snake Diggity

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Everything posted by Snake Diggity

  1. Yeah if Harris wins NC but loses PA…that seems implausible to me.
  2. Harris winning Michigan and Pennsylvania means Trump has to win all 4 of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to get to 270. Interesting to me that there aren’t too many plausible scenarios where Nevada is the difference maker.
  3. Our country’s biggest problem is that most people think our issues are rooted around race, gender, or ideology, when it’s really about rich vs poor and urban vs rural. I am sensitive to issues of gender and race inequality but I truly believe a lot of the bandwidth those topics get is really just a ploy by rich people to get poor people to focus on something other than how much they’re getting fucked over by rich people. The rural vs urban thing is more logical. Rural people don’t engage in society in the same way urban people, so it’s reasonable that they’d have very different views on how government should be run. Liberals/Dems do a very poor job marketing their ideas to rural people; this is one area where I think Walz’s VP selection was great.
  4. In the analogy, the scoreboard is blurry as fuck. Some people think the Dems are up 10, some think they’re up 3, others think it’s tied.
  5. Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball. Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game. But the game is far from over.
  6. Is “assassination attempt on man who attempted to overturn a free and fair election and continually attempts to undermine democracy” a surprising or even negative headline? The bigger surprise is that there weren’t more publicly known attempts from 2016-2023. Trump made a comment that Harris’s and Biden’s rhetoric are causing people to try to kill him. But if their rhetoric is the truth, how can you blame them?
  7. If a candidate wins the popular vote by more than 5 points and loses the electoral college, there should be a full scale revolt.
  8. 7 weeks to go, key dates for things that could change the outcome: 9/17: Fed meets on Sep 17-18; their announcement about rate changes could have dramatic impact on the stock market and sentiment toward Harris. 9/20: Early voting begins; exit polling and other insights might start showing up. 10/1: VP debate; for now it looks quite likely that Walz/Harris will receive another bump, but a major snafu could erode their momentum. 10/4: Sept jobs report released 10/10: Sept inflation report released 11/5: Election Day Unscheduled or unknown events that could change things: Assassinations and assassination attempts Health problems for either candidate or their running mates Scandals (affairs, etc.) Developments in Ukraine/Israel wars Significant stories involving illegal immigrants I think there’s more downside for Trump in the unknowns than for Harris. I think Trump is more likely to get killed, have healthy problems, or have a scandal. Harris is more vulnerable to negative outcomes related to stories on the economy, Ukraine/Israel, and immigration, but I think it’s limited. I don’t think the majority of Americans actually would prefer Trump to handle something like the aftermath of Putin firing off a nuke, or Iran escalating with the Israelies. Interestingly, it doesn’t look like the actual crimes that Trump has been indicted for are going to have any material impact on the election; that’s insane to me.
  9. Gotta admit, Donald Trump is all class.
  10. DaSentence Bosworth Absolut Verdict Maxamoose Richards Tactical Booty-Jones Buh-bye Terrence Abdullahad
  11. Our system was not meant to withstand the pressures of Trumpism.
  12. I do have to say that when Trump said “It’s like ‘Run, Spot. Run.’” I laughed my ass off. It’s the first time that piece of egomaniacal shit has ever made me legitimately laugh.
  13. 8 more weeks of him in the spotlight and us having to worry about him, followed by 12 weeks of him trying to overturn the election (assuming he loses). So we have at minimum another 20 weeks of having that piece of shit at the center of American politics.
  14. Did Biden or his social media address Trump’s claim that Biden hates Kamala Harris?
  15. Nah. None of the people she will mobilize to vote were watching the debate or paying any attention to the news of the day. They were watching The Eras Tour on Disney+. And right this minute they’re registering to vote.
  16. God bless Taylor Swift. Quite possibly an American Hero.
  17. Well we didn’t get him saying the N word and he didn’t go catatonic, but otherwise that could not possibly have gone better for Harris. Her closing speech was excellent. She’s up to the task.
  18. Yeah but that’s like millions of people.
  19. She’s clearly been trained not to call attention to Trump interrupting and getting additional time. As frustrating as it is to see Trump bully his way to the last word, I think Harris is making the right move there.
  20. Sadly, the election is close enough that tonight’s debate could be a determining factor. Trump’s winning strategy: his advantage is that the bar for his performance is extremely low. Winning for him means clearing that low bar (I.e. don’t pull a McConnell freeze moment and don’t say the n word) while hoping Kamala doesn’t clear her much high bar (or goading her into doing something that turns off moderates/never-Trumpers/swing voters, or quells her base’s energy). Harris’ winning strategy: her advantage is that she is clearly the more qualified candidate and has all of the momentum. She needs to use the opportunity to highlight that disparity between her and Trump while destroying any notion that she is an extremist. Her message needs to be one of stability, moderation, and hope. Any progressive ideas need to be presented as complete common sense and highlight that any objection to them is evil/wierd. She must avoid misspeaking or losing her train of thought at any point. A Rick Perry “oops” moment would be fucked.
  21. I’ve wondered about this. For one thing, if a rural/suburban wife in a swing/red state wants to vote Kamala, you know she’s “silent” otherwise her hubbie will beat that ass.
  22. I’m not sure how my wife is juggling 2 families but I’m certain we married the same person.
  23. Problem is there aren’t any good options to spend that $25M/yr on. $125M/5yrs is gonna buy somebody like Anthony Santander or Tyler O’Neill. Theres probably a way to use $25M to patch together upgrades at both 1B and LF but it’s risky (it likely means signing older guys like Canha or Santana or JD Martinez or guys with warts like Joc Pederson). It’s mostly just a bummer that they don’t have a better sample from Whitcomb or Dezenzo to see how good they might actually be. That combined with McCormick’s fall off has exacerbated the issue of losing Bregman.
  24. In a “great” America, Trump is not on the ballot. In a “sane again” America, Harris wins 350+ EV. In a “recovering” America, Harris wins 319+ EV. In a “surviving” America, Harris wins 270+ EV. In a “failing” America, Trump wins 270+ EV. In a “failed” America, Trump wins 300+ EV. It really sucks that our country is stuck somewhere between surviving and failing.
  25. Bregman is a moderately better hitter but most importantly he is a year younger. He will get a 7 year deal in free agency if he ends the year healthy (big question as I’ve read his elbow might require surgery after the season). I’m guessing $220M/7yrs is his ceiling with $190M/7yrs my estimate assuming he has a clean physical. Houston isn’t paying that. Best case for Houston is if teams get scared by his elbow and he has to take a pillow deal in which case the Astros have a shot to sign him.
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