Snake Diggity

This tweet tastes delicious. Nom nom nom nom nom

Bitch out there sounding like Miss teen South Carolina “I personally believe that witch hunt such as the Saudi Arabia and Russia…and the demise of our country like the politically motivated…”

I was taking all that from ballotpedia. Looks like their SC data is wonky.

State govt GOP control of swing states: PA: Senate WI: House, Senate, Supreme Court MI: Supreme Court GA: House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court AZ: House, Senate, Supreme Court NV: Governor Georgia is the only swing state where the GOP controls all 4, and Kemp hates Trump, so it’s unlikely shenanigans go easy for them even there.

It’s an easy/quick read, which I assume was partially Trump’s influence. That’s about its only non-negative trait. There’s not a single insightful point about business nor a single humanizing anecdote about Trump’s life. If you come away from that book thinking anything positive about Trump, you’re a rube.

I read The Art of the Deal in 2007 during a binge of biographies I was going through. I was moderately interested in Trump, mostly because I knew nothing about him and figured there had to be more to him than the person I’d seen on Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous in the 80s or on his reality shows in the aughts. I got thru that book and blew a raspberry, thinking “that dude is nothing but an attention-starved trust fund baby who was born into enough capital to buy fame and purchase an unearned reputation. A bankrupt business genius.” It’s why I never ever considered him a serious threat to the presidency and figured if he did win he’d be totally uninterested in actually doing anything. I totally underestimated how dangerous he was. But this entire last 9 years I have been very confident that his flaws will undo him, as they have multiple times throughout his life; it’s just a matter of time. I don’t know if that’s actually happening now, with apparent dwindling enthusiasm for his style, money and legal problems, and age-related decline. I’m scared to bank on it. But it will happen, eventually. And it will be very satisfying for me to watch.

There are a few things working in Trump’s favor: Foreign influence: Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and Iran all stand to benefit from a Trump presidency. Thought: why aren’t NATO countries meddling in our election the opposite direction to cancel them out? Passion: Trump has fewer supporters than Biden but they are far more passionate about him. His base is more solid, and they are willing to do more (including breaking the law) to help him win. Electoral college: Regardless of the overall numbers, there are only 6-7 states that matter. Expanding the margins in safe blue states is meaningless. Biden could lead the popular vote by 10 million votes but still lose if GA, AZ, and MI/WI don’t go his way. Supreme Court: this is less certain but a conservative court probably works in Trump’s favor if they end up deciding the election.

The last 9 years have proven that rational thinking and obvious outcomes are not dependable when it comes to American politics. Trump is a terrible candidate, a loser, a criminal, and one of the worst/most unlikable human beings on the planet. He’s broke, his party is broke, and his path to victory is extremely narrow. His opponent has more money, a better track record of success, is infinitely more likable, and possesses a starkly superior moral character. The Democrats control the governorship and/or state leg and state courts in almost every swing state. There is no rational thinking that would lead to predicting a Trump victory in November. But it was the same way in 2016 and 2020.

Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom? Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom? Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.

With Kessinger hurt, Julks is likely to make the roster. Very hard to see Joey Lopes making the roster. If an everyday guy gets hurt he might be first in line though.

Anecdotally I can confirm this. I have 3 homes in Austin. The 2 in the $350k-$500k range have recent comps that show their prices are continuing to go up or are at least stable. My other property is in the $600k-$900k range and the asking prices for similar homes has come down a bit, but not 20% down from peak. My guess is that 20-25% decrease is coming from the homes in the $900k-$2M range.

A few more guys not on that list were also released. No major surprises although Dauri Lorenzo was an intl top 30 prospect when he signed so I figured he’d get another year of development. Gaston, Balogh, and Borden all showed potential at one point but it’s not shocking to see them cut loose. I am hoping to see some aggressive assignments in 2 weeks, especially in Fayetteville, as there’s a handful of teenage position players who have some of the highest ceilings in the Astros system (Jaworsky, Hernandez, Luciano, Gomez, Huezo, Ochoa).

I can’t stop thinking about how Derka says “boy” on that track. How would you spell that, phonetically? Bwuah? Bou-oy?

I struggle with this topic. On the one hand, of course we should all be more supportive of each other and people going through mental health problems should have people close to them that they always feel comfortable reaching out to in order to get thru their tough moments. But on the other hand, people with serious mental health issues can be exhausting. I have had friends going through problems that seem like they need neverending support. It has made me very skittish about reaching out to people I’m worried about, because I feel like I’m just asking to get used up. I have suffered from depression and suicidal ideation off and on (mostly on) for decades. When I was young I didn’t feel badly about reaching out to friends or my brothers or my mom for someone to talk to. But in middle age I realize how busy every one is and how burdened everyone is with their own problems, and so there’s a lot of guilt about using up other people’s time and energy.

Has another currency or a stock or a precious metal or really anything at all ever experienced this kind of price increase based solely on speculative inflows?

Fuck Jesse Ventura. If he’d followed through on his intention to run 3rd party in 2016, we would all have been spared the Trump presidency and all its associated bullshit over the last 8+ years.

He’s already got the signatures to be on it in AZ and GA.

There’s definitely question as to RFK’s specific impact. Registered democrats have a more unfavorable view of him but I don’t think those voters make up the double haters. My guess is that the double haters are mostly former Republicans who Trump has turned away.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true That article pegs it at 3-5%. You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.

Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump. Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate. In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

If they want to upgrade over Singleton they’d be better off signing Brandon Belt who is still a free agent. He’s a better complement to Abreu and a better defensive 1B and a better option to have on the bench to pinch hit. The only way Davis makes sense for Houston is on an extremely cheap multiyear deal where he can serve as a stopgap 3B between Bregman and whoever ends up being the long term solution (Dezenzo).

But Biden won all those states in 2020. Sure, we can hope the margins aren’t as close, but there’s no upside there in terms of EVs.

Relax, lil’ fella. My comment wasn’t in response to anything you said. I quoted your response to me. You didn’t show shit. But since you asked, here’s the margin in 2020 of the closest states: Blue states most at risk to flip red in 2024: AZ, GA, WI: <1% PA: <2% NV, MI: <3% Red states most at risk to flip blue in 2024: NC <2% FL <4% No other red states were within 5 points in 2020. Now you tell me how there’s more upside than downside for Biden vs 2020.

Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020? Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?

I am not too worried about PA and I figure if Michigan goes then it probably means GA, AZ, and WI are even further gone. Trump won in 2016 and was very fucking close to winning in 2020 despite all logic. We can point all we want to “why” Biden should easily win those swing states, but Trump has shown that obvious logic often does not apply to his outcomes.