Snake Diggity

Got a #csb from voting just now. 2 people in front of me in line was a white man, probably in his mid 60s. He had an empty open carry holster on his belt. Between me and him was a black man probably mid 40s. As we get to the line after having our IDs checked, the white guy turns to the black guy and says “be sure to check your printed ballot, because the voting machines are changing people’s ballots.” The black man didn’t say anything, but I was standing right behind him shaking my head, and I said quietly “no”. The white guys says to me “you don’t think that is true?” And I said “I know it’s not true.” It was our turn to vote so we all moved on. But I was boiling. I finished voting before the white guy. I waited for him in the parking lot. He came walking out with his wife and another woman. I walked up to him and said “Sir, your comment to that man in line was wildly inappropriate. Undermining people’s faith in our elections WHILE STANDING IN LINE TO VOTE is totally out of line and unacceptable. It’s also unpatriotic.” He just stared back at me with his mouth agape. I gave him 2-3 seconds to respond, and when he didn’t, I just turned and walked away. And that’s the end of my cool starry bra. Not sure why that pissed me off so much but goddam im still mad about it.

I guess I’m a dumbass because I just now realized that a lot of people choose the color of the clothing they wear to go vote based on who they are voting for. It dawned on me as I looked at this long ass line and was like “why are like 80% of the people in this line wearing blue?”

Down here at the voting location off Monterrey Oaks, line MUCH longer than 2020, although that could just be time/day. If Harris wins by a larger margin than Biden, it’s going to be hilarious when all the “MSM/fake news” fuckers start pointing to the NYT polls as evidence the election was rigged.

The most hook em of all hook ems. Enjoy it. Good luck.

I would be shocked by any kind of detailed or well-thought out response. For a host of reasons. But it is really, really hard to admit that some of the core shit you have been bought into your whole life is dead-ass wrong, or even debatable. I was raised ultra-religious, ultra-ultra-conservative, and very racist. Not even 5 years of UT-Austin made much difference in my worldview. It wasn’t until my mid 20s and I spent significant time traveling and reading that things started to shift. And even then it wasn’t until my mid 30s that I feel like I had any kind of grasp on what’s true. Luckily for me that all happened before 2016, so by the time Trump came along politically, I knew better. But it wasn’t but 15-20 years ago that I would have been a perfect mark for Trump. That’s part of what’s so frustrating and sad about engaging Trump voters; they are victims, both in how their ideology was formed and in how they will be impacted by the politicians they support.

Trump is universally unfit to be President. The tamest reason is policy: his tax and tariff plans will destroy the economy, his border policy will exacerbate the problem, his foreign policy will turn our allies into new enemies and empower our old enemies, his energy policy will tank the price of oil, further destroy the environment, and hinder innovation, and generally his policies will widen the wealth gap and cause increased social issues. But beyond that, his temperament, rhetoric, and character are so far out of line with what is required for an acceptable/effective leader that his policies shouldn’t even be a factor. One look at any meaningful sample of his public statements, interviews, and feedback from the people who know him best shows that he is entirely driven by ego and self-interest and will do literally anything to feed that drive. He talks shit incessantly, about his former friends, colleagues, world leaders, constituents, and political opponents. He lies incessantly, about his accomplishments, about what he knows, and generally will lie about anything if he thinks it will benefit him. He has lied about the integrity of our elections going back to even before 2016; for me personally, this is the most disqualifying thing he’s done. Undermining the people’s faith in democratic elections with lies is the type of shit a dictator does, and the exact opposite of patriotic. He intentionally sows discord. Thats the opposite of leadership. He’s the standard bearer for the party of “family values” who has cheated on all 3 of his wives and committed sexual assault. He’s the standard bearer for the party of “fiscal responsibility” who has a litany of bankruptcies. He’s the standard bearer for the party of “law and order” who is a felon. If you read all that shit and give a wave of the hand and stick to “that’s fake news, and nothing compared to Harris’ DEI and open border agenda”, your brain has been poisoned.

More posrep as I think you are actually engaging in good faith. I think it sucks that probably 25%+ (maybe a LOT more) of the football board are Trump supporters but <5 of yall have waded into the thread, getting inundated with replies from opposing views. How firm of a Trump supporter are you? From your prior posts, you’re an anti-DEI pro-choice voter focused on the economy and the border. If someone were able to convince you that Harris was better for both our economy and border, would that be enough to change your vote? Or is the anti-DEI piece the linchpin? Are the other factors (character, criminal history, rhetoric, etc.) meaningless to you?

I also think Ohio and Alaska will be within 5 points.

USA: Harris +6 WI Harris +3 MI Harris +4 PA Harris +3 NC Harris +2 GA Harris +1 AZ Harris +2 NV Harris +0 FL Trump +4 TX Trump +5 This is what I think is the single most likely set of outcomes. However I would not be at all shocked if it’s much closer.

Posrep not because I agree with you but for clearly laying out why you’re voting Republican. I think this captures what most rubes actually think. This. Trump is going to destroy the economy with tax cuts and tariffs. He’s not going to do shit about the border or immigration because he’d he lose his best “I alone can fix it” issue. If education is left entirely to the states, there would be wildly different standards and every state south of the Mason Dixon line would move to Christian nationalist education (but only for middle class and above; poor people get nada); this would be far more destructive than any DEI policy. As for abortion, it sounds like you’re pro-Choice, so that’s a reason to vote against Trump.

That’s actually the bottom line in this race; Trump is campaigning in a place he can’t win without, Harris is campaigning in a place that if she takes it she can’t lose. Harris just has more realistic paths to victory here. I was shocked enough in 2016 to never be shocked again, so if Trump wins I won’t be shocked. But I will be surprised.

I know you are but what am I?

Yep, Unions and rural farmers seem like who they should focus on. Secondary to that they’ve got to figure out to properly message their stance on gender equality and gun control.

15 days away. My estimated odds of various outcomes: Harris >319 (I breathe a sigh of relief and unclench my butthole for the first time since 2015): 3% Harris 319 (Harris sweeps swing states, I beat off 3 times): 10% Harris 276-319 (Close but not terrifying victory, life goes on): 33% Harris 270-276 (nail biter likely marred by violence, life goes on, probably): 20% Trump 281 (Trump wins PA, AZ, NC, GA, we’re pretty fucked): 25% Trump 281-312 (Trump wins more swing states, we’re definitely fucked): 8% Trump >312 (I abandon my family to become a revolutionary soldier): 1%

I fucked up. I meant to post that on the college thread.

Who projects as our weekend starters? Looking over the roster the lineup should be stacked and pitching depth looks really good, but I can’t tell who we can count on to start the most important games.

The money move would be to get one of Trumps kids to bail on him after November and endorse Haley as the new leader. I can’t imagine any other support making a dent in MAGA. But getting Ivanka or Don Jr. to publicly say “It’s over, dad” might matter to the Trumpers. Otherwise it’ll be more of the same until Trump is dead.

Harris continues to hold the momentum with 18 days to go. There’s very little chance any economic news will come out that will reverse the momentum. The odds of a Trump health issue are far greater than the odds of a Harris health issue. The only things I can think of that will fuck this up are major geopolitical violence (Russia or Iran firing off a nuke, a terrorist attack in the US, anything that requires a large number of US boots on the ground) or some kind of crime/scandal (Harris infidelity, a sex tape, insider trading, etc.). It’s fucked up that the things we already know Trump has done (grifting, lying, defrauding, raping, cheating on his spouse) that didn’t impact his candidacy at all would totally sink Harris. But barring something catastrophic, to me there’s higher odds of a Harris landslide than a Trump victory of any kind.

Who projects as our weekend starters? Looking over the roster the lineup should be stacked and pitching depth looks really good, but I can’t tell who we can count on to start the most important games.

Dems best realistic hope other than a Tester miracle is Osborn winning NE; I don’t think he’ll caucus with the Dems but he will vote patriotically when it counts; he’d certainly vote to raise minimum wage and any other pro-union issue.

Trump out there lookin like he might not even have the energy to incite another violent attempt to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.

Yes, I know. There’s a shitload of reasons beyond my control that my kids are achieving at different levels; genetics, birth order, luck of other forms (it seems like my older one has gotten much better teachers than my younger one). But I am just terrified that if my kid gets a bad outcome that I will be left feeling like I didn’t do everything I could to prevent it. Im determined to leave it all on the court so to speak. Even though I know what I can actually control is very limited.

I gotta brag on my oldest (9). Had parent teacher conferences this afternoon. Her teacher said “Your child is not only the brightest child I have ever taught, she is also the most well rounded. She is kind to others, funny, and the other children all look to her for how to behave. She is always the first to reach out to include a child who is being left out or comfort a child who is upset. And her standardized tests show she is a full 2 grade levels ahead.” It felt extremely good to hear something that validating. I feel a shitload of pressure to keep her on track to reach her potential and not fuck her up. Thats juxtaposed against my youngest (6), whose teacher said “your child is enormously cute and kind to others, but she is the most stubborn child I’ve ever taught (teacher only has taught 2 years). She almost never obeys instructions on the first try and despite testing well above average in both reading and math, acts as if she knows nothing about either when it’s time to do work in class. She seems impossible to motivate.” Which felt terrible because none of it was surprising to hear and I feel at least some of it can be traced back to my own parenting failures, mostly that we just haven’t given the younger one the amount of 1:1 attention and consistent discipline that we gave her older sister. I’m determine to do the work to course correct but it is going to be hard. This shit is hard and always such a mixed bag.

I really have no strong predictions about the outcome of the election. But I KNOW 2 things: 1. Enthusiasm for Harris is higher than it was for Biden in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. 2. Enthusiasm for Trump is lower than it was in 2016 or 2020.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d be fuckin HYPE if I had 120k fall into my lap. But the main thing that strikes me is that a 6 figure windfall wouldn’t materially change my life. Wouldn’t add any major luxury or experience and wouldn’t change my retirement timeline/budget much if at all. Inflation and lifestyle creep are motherfuckers.