Everything posted by Snake Diggity
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Markets still falling like whoa
Why is stock concentration considered a leading indicator of economic doom? Why is decreasing money supply in correlation with that an indicator of economic doom? Some interesting graphs but seems kind of meaningless at face value.
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Houston Astros off-season thread
With Kessinger hurt, Julks is likely to make the roster. Very hard to see Joey Lopes making the roster. If an everyday guy gets hurt he might be first in line though.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Anecdotally I can confirm this. I have 3 homes in Austin. The 2 in the $350k-$500k range have recent comps that show their prices are continuing to go up or are at least stable. My other property is in the $600k-$900k range and the asking prices for similar homes has come down a bit, but not 20% down from peak. My guess is that 20-25% decrease is coming from the homes in the $900k-$2M range.
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Houston Astros off-season thread
A few more guys not on that list were also released. No major surprises although Dauri Lorenzo was an intl top 30 prospect when he signed so I figured he’d get another year of development. Gaston, Balogh, and Borden all showed potential at one point but it’s not shocking to see them cut loose. I am hoping to see some aggressive assignments in 2 weeks, especially in Fayetteville, as there’s a handful of teenage position players who have some of the highest ceilings in the Astros system (Jaworsky, Hernandez, Luciano, Gomez, Huezo, Ochoa).
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i entered a contest with an entry fee and then the contest never happened
I can’t stop thinking about how Derka says “boy” on that track. How would you spell that, phonetically? Bwuah? Bou-oy?
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Depression, OCD, and whatever else ails you between the ears
I struggle with this topic. On the one hand, of course we should all be more supportive of each other and people going through mental health problems should have people close to them that they always feel comfortable reaching out to in order to get thru their tough moments. But on the other hand, people with serious mental health issues can be exhausting. I have had friends going through problems that seem like they need neverending support. It has made me very skittish about reaching out to people I’m worried about, because I feel like I’m just asking to get used up. I have suffered from depression and suicidal ideation off and on (mostly on) for decades. When I was young I didn’t feel badly about reaching out to friends or my brothers or my mom for someone to talk to. But in middle age I realize how busy every one is and how burdened everyone is with their own problems, and so there’s a lot of guilt about using up other people’s time and energy.
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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)
Has another currency or a stock or a precious metal or really anything at all ever experienced this kind of price increase based solely on speculative inflows?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Fuck Jesse Ventura. If he’d followed through on his intention to run 3rd party in 2016, we would all have been spared the Trump presidency and all its associated bullshit over the last 8+ years.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
He’s already got the signatures to be on it in AZ and GA.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
There’s definitely question as to RFK’s specific impact. Registered democrats have a more unfavorable view of him but I don’t think those voters make up the double haters. My guess is that the double haters are mostly former Republicans who Trump has turned away.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true That article pegs it at 3-5%. You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump. Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate. In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.
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Houston Astros off-season thread
If they want to upgrade over Singleton they’d be better off signing Brandon Belt who is still a free agent. He’s a better complement to Abreu and a better defensive 1B and a better option to have on the bench to pinch hit. The only way Davis makes sense for Houston is on an extremely cheap multiyear deal where he can serve as a stopgap 3B between Bregman and whoever ends up being the long term solution (Dezenzo).
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
But Biden won all those states in 2020. Sure, we can hope the margins aren’t as close, but there’s no upside there in terms of EVs.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Relax, lil’ fella. My comment wasn’t in response to anything you said. I quoted your response to me. You didn’t show shit. But since you asked, here’s the margin in 2020 of the closest states: Blue states most at risk to flip red in 2024: AZ, GA, WI: <1% PA: <2% NV, MI: <3% Red states most at risk to flip blue in 2024: NC <2% FL <4% No other red states were within 5 points in 2020. Now you tell me how there’s more upside than downside for Biden vs 2020.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020? Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I am not too worried about PA and I figure if Michigan goes then it probably means GA, AZ, and WI are even further gone. Trump won in 2016 and was very fucking close to winning in 2020 despite all logic. We can point all we want to “why” Biden should easily win those swing states, but Trump has shown that obvious logic often does not apply to his outcomes.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
There seems to be more downside vs 2020 than upside. Which states can be reasonably expected that will turn blue in 2024 vs 2020? North Carolina, maybe? Ohio and Iowa and Florida and Texas are the next closest states and they don’t seem all that close. On the other side, Trump’s path is pretty clear: repeat 2020 but flip Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Michigan. That may not be likely, but a Trump victory seems an awful lot more possible than a Biden landslide.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I hope you are right but refuse to believe it until we have some proof. If what you said is true then Biden should waltz to 310+ EV in November.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I’m pretty despondent about November right now. It just doesn’t look like there’s nearly enough recognition by middle of the road and normally apathetic voters of what a grave threat Trump represents. I never expected to spend the 2nd third of my life as a revolutionary but if these dumb motherfuckers wanna fuck around I guess we’ll all find out together.
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Rough estimates: 40% of voters understand it and are actively fighting against it. 15% of voters understand it and are actively working to make it happen. 30% of voters are rubes getting duped into supporting it. 15% of voters are uninformed or apathetic or undecided. The voters in this section in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are going to decide the outcome.
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2024 State of the Union, 8p central, 3/7
I felt like Vice President Britt did a pretty good job. She “gets” it.
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You can time travel to any time/event in the past... where you going?
Gotta go back and see what Jesus of Nazareth was really about. I would go expecting to be disappointed. 2nd on the list (assuming I have unlimited time and don’t age while I’m time traveling) would be to go back and watch my parents as children and young adults; I think it would really help me with my life’s biggest problems. Same for going back and watching my own childhood, assuming that’s within the rules of the hypothetical. Other than that the list is really too long. I’d love to be an immortal fly-on-the-wall time traveler. I’d watch a lot of speeches, battles, sporting events, and concerts.
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2024 State of the Union, 8p central, 3/7
Yeah this woman ain’t it. Like something out of a telenovela.
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2024 State of the Union, 8p central, 3/7
How long do you think Johnson stood in front of the mirror pursing his lips like that trying to get that dissatisfied look just perfect for tonigh?