Snake Diggity

Updated 183 report: on my drive from Austin to Port O’Connor there was a SHOCKING number of Harris/Walz signs/billboards in Victoria. There were, of course, a lot of Trump signs. But I would say in Victoria proper it was 4:1 Trump:Harris. In 2020 the number was easily 10x if not 100x; hell, I don’t remember seeing a Biden sign in that town 4 years ago. And the total number of Trump signs on that 150 mile stretch seems significantly lower than 4 years ago. Another encouraging sign was the number of clusters of signs in Lockhart, Luling, and Gonzales that had all local Republican candidates, but NO Trump signs. Only new cringe was a ranch outside Cuero that installed a flag pole near the highway with a 4’x6’ Trump flag.

Why is PA polling so close? Scary shit.

If you’re good with kids, Big Brothers Big Sisters is very rewarding. The kids in that program are awesome kids but have a life that will make you grateful. Being a CASA advocate is also very important, rewarding work (but I’ve heard it can be depressing). Any elementary school will have programs that will let you volunteer to help tutor kids, help teachers with administrative work, and any number of things, just call the school closest to your house. If you can cook, sign up to cook a meal at the Ronald McDonald House once a month. If you’re an animal person, call your local animal shelter. They could definitely use your help walking/training dogs and cleaning up after them, among other things. If you’re handy, Habitat for Humanity. If you’re into the outdoors, call your local Parks dept and I’m sure they’ll have something you can help with. I would also caution to temper expectations. If you’re depressed, volunteering can be a really good thing but it also might not help at all if the real problems are internal. But volunteering can definitely help you have a sense of purpose and gratitude, and those are really important for treating depression. My big 7 to pay attention to: sleep, diet, exercise, gratitude, purpose, companionship, joy, sunlight.

Are you the Aggy? If the margin was 215k votes, one voter switching from Cruz to Allred makes the margin 2 less (plus 1 for Allred, minus 1 for Cruz); a voter switching from Cruz to staying home reduces the margin by 1 (minus 1 for Cruz, no difference for Allred). So in my hypothetical, where there’s a remaining difference of 150k, 50k switching parties reduces the difference by 100k. I pulled all the numbers out of my ass, but the math works (I think…I’m fuckin elderly and make mistakes).

7 swing states. Harris, Walz, Swift, Barack, Michelle, Springsteen, and Joe Biden. One of each should be in each state at all times between now and Election Day.

No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released. It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.

King (2.39 era in Houston) and Ort (2.55 era in Houston) easily could have taken almost all of the 6th/7th innings that Espada used Abreu in that caused Abreu and Hader to go more than 1 inning and pitch so frequently. Neither of those guys is AAA trash.

He was a $40M player this season. He will get well over $150M. My guess is he gets something like $180M/6yrs with bonuses or vesting years that take it to $200M. Theres always the chance his elbow or back or hammy tank his medicals or teams just don’t have the money. But I will be really surprised if he takes a long term deal with no opt outs for less than $170M.

Take 2018 results. 215k difference. 65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid. 150k difference. 50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned. 50k difference. 25k new black voters turn out for Allred. 25k difference. 50k Beto latinos stay home. 75k difference. lol. 25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference. 25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred. 25k difference. Allred isn’t going to win. But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.

This is actually a key difference between long term and short term renters to consider. Long term renters shit and piss all over everything, short term renters jizz and vomit all over everything.

If Bregman were willing to take $150M or less then he’d already have signed. He’s looking for $200M+ and I don’t know if he’ll get it or not but I will be very very surprised if he signs with Houston.

I would bet money on any of these players being Houston’s 2025 opening day 3B before I’d bet on Bregman: Mauricio Dubon Jake Burger Shay Whitcomb Zach Dezenzo Donovan Solano Gio Urshela Jeimer Candelario Bregman had 7 years to work out a deal with Houston. He’s already posted a goodbye tweet and sold his house in Houston. He gone.

Good point, underrated benefit of a deep lineup is more big leads and more flexibility in pitcher usage.

Yeah the Astros riding Abreu and Hader so hard all year was odd. It might be only another 10 pitches, but going down and getting back up is a huge shift in routine, and 40 pitches is a lot more than 30 in terms of % especially including the additional warm up. A lot of that was dictated by the SP injuries and underperformance early in the season but I felt like they could have managed it better by being more active in shuffling in fresh arms from AAA. King, Ort, Mushinski, Whitley, Hernandez, Contreras, and Suero should have all gotten more time in Houston and eaten some of those innings to keep Hader/Abreu fresher and more in their standard routine. I bet we will see a lot fewer multi-inning efforts from Hader next year.

Your wealth is not significant lil fella.

Mayor Pete is the CDC of politicians. Whiny motherfuckers tweet out trashing him and all he does is professionally respond and resolve the problem.

There’s no argument that Pena is an adequate replacement for Correa in a vacuum. For 3 of his 7 seasons in Houston, Correa was one of the 4 best SS in the game; for the others, he was still more valuable than Pena has ever been. Pena has been fine and Houston has continued to win with him at SS, but that’s because of how incredible Yordan and Tucker (and to a lesser degree Altuve and Bregman) have been in making up the difference. Pena was actually the 87th most valuable position player in the league (fwar, all players), putting him in a group with such studs as…Miguel Rojas, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, and Jonathan India. He’s a good player; an exactly average hitter who fields the toughest position on the field at an above average level. But he’s not somebody keeping the window open, he’s a significant downgrade from Correa, and he’s at the age and experience where we can’t expect him to be more than that. You can say we haven’t missed Correa, but I think this teams fortunes sure would have been different this season if they’d had Correa instead of Pena. Last thought that is worth mentioning: Pena has been excellent against LHP. He is a star level player against lefties. But he’s a league average SS against RHP.

Pena is 1800 pa into his career and is an exactly league average hitter. His defense regressed for the 2nd consecutive season. He is a good, valuable player, but he is not a star; he was the 20th most valuable SS in the league this season (fwar). True contenders have a guy like Pena as their 7th or 8th best hitter and 5th or 6th most valuable position player. Guys like that supplement an open competitive window, they don’t keep it open.

Reality is that if Houston wants to contend after next season, they need at least one legit superstar prospect to emerge or 2-3 stars to emerge. As good as Pena and Diaz are, they are nowhere near as valuable as Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer and Alvarez were when they came up. Houston needs a guy in that tier to develop if they wanna withstand losing Framber and Tucker, unless Crane goes full Cohen.

I did a quick Pareto analysis of the surplus value of the organizational roster going into 2017 vs 2025. Here’s a summary: 1. The 2025 org has much less payroll flexibility, even if they have comparable total surplus value. 2. The 2017 org had significantly more surplus value in its MLB lineup, but the 2025 org makes up for almost all of that with more surplus value in its MLB pitching staff. In total, the difference at the big league level amounts to one really good player under cheap long term control. 3. The difference in the farm systems boils down to 2-3 elite prospects. The depth is very comparable (with the benefit of hindsight). 2017 had Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, and Javier in the system, but at that point only Tucker was thought of as an elite prospect. 2017 was a highly rated farm, but many of the top prospects like Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley, David Paulino, Derek Fisher, and others didn’t pan out.

It is incredibly difficult to begin an effective rebuild when a team has 2 hall of fame caliber players (like Altuve and Alvarez) under long term control. When you have 2 players that good, the overwhelming odds favor building around them immediately. You don’t trade players like Framber or Tucker in that situation. Pressly may very well be traded, but it would be mostly a salary dump; his return will likely not have a meaningful impact on the farm system. The Astros underwent a shitload of bad injury luck in 2024. Without that they likely win the division going away and are in the ALDS. Heck, even with all the injuries, if Jose Abreu hits like he did prior to 2023, they are probably in the ALDS and nobody is talking about rebuilding. You don’t tear things down when you’re that close. If they were going to do a pre-emptive rebuild, the time to do it was last offseason, when they could have gotten monster hauls for Framber, Tucker, and Bregman, and entered 2025 with the top farm system in baseball. That ship has sailed. Another thing to note is that their farm has been recovering from lost draft picks for 3-4 seasons now. After the next draft will be the first time the Astros will have had a full complement of prospects in their farm since 2020. And despite that the farm has continued to produce 2nd and 3rd tier major leaguers. The Astros have ~$40M to spend and need 2-3 good players in order to be legit contenders. Crane needs to stay out of roster construction decisions. But it’s doable. You can do a player by player comparison of the organization in 2005 vs today and it’s light years difference. There was no Yordan-level player with 4 years of control in 2005. The farm in 2005 had been utterly neglected by McLane for years and was completely barren; that’s not the case today. The Astros are surefire playoff contenders next season. The moves they make over the offseason will determine if they improve into championship contenders. Even if 2025 doesn’t work out, they can enter 2026 with a clear payroll and 2 extra picks in the upcoming draft, plus another year of Brown restocking the farm. One other opinion: Framber and Tucker don’t have much more value now than they will in July, so Houston may as well see if they can make one more run for a ring, because they can also start the rebuild at the deadline if things don’t go their way.

Willson Contreras is probably a better fit. An elite bat who could split 1B/C with Diaz to get them both in the lineup everyday. Contreras could probably play LF too if they made him. He’s got a palatable contract at $51M/3yrs plus a team option.

The summary of this season is Jose Abreu fucked them. His contract on its own is why they didn’t advance further. Had Houston saved that money (or had Abreu been the player they thought they were getting), Houston doesn’t have to press so hard to win the division and likely wins enough games to avoid the wild card round. Who knows what happens in the ALDS and beyond, but Abreu is the shortest line to draw to illustrate why Houston’s season is already over. The bummer is that it could totally bleed over to 2025.

Ok so 43% of voters minimum will be pulling the lever for Trump. Who the fuck are they and how can they possibly do that? Here’s my guess: 3% of voters are single issue sexists; they simply will not vote for a woman for president 5% of voters a truly reprehensible human beings. They’re racist, sexist, classist pieces of shit. 7% of voters are single issue anti-abortion voters. 9% of voters are completely ignorant of where either candidate stands on any given issue; they know absolutely nothing and really couldn’t give you a reason why they vote the way they do; this number may be shocking but I would bet it’s actually much higher 9% of voters are single issue personal income tax voters (many of them are misinformed on how each candidate will actually impact their own income tax bill) 10% of voters are single issue racist voters; they vote for the candidate they think will prioritize white interests over the interests of non-whites Those numbers I pulled out of my ass but I’d be interested in how the board thinks it breaks down or what data/research actually shows.

You’d think the GOP nominee’s wife coming out as full on pro choice would be a bigger deal. Welp, throw it on the pile.