Snake Diggity

Reality is that if Houston wants to contend after next season, they need at least one legit superstar prospect to emerge or 2-3 stars to emerge. As good as Pena and Diaz are, they are nowhere near as valuable as Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer and Alvarez were when they came up. Houston needs a guy in that tier to develop if they wanna withstand losing Framber and Tucker, unless Crane goes full Cohen.

I did a quick Pareto analysis of the surplus value of the organizational roster going into 2017 vs 2025. Here’s a summary: 1. The 2025 org has much less payroll flexibility, even if they have comparable total surplus value. 2. The 2017 org had significantly more surplus value in its MLB lineup, but the 2025 org makes up for almost all of that with more surplus value in its MLB pitching staff. In total, the difference at the big league level amounts to one really good player under cheap long term control. 3. The difference in the farm systems boils down to 2-3 elite prospects. The depth is very comparable (with the benefit of hindsight). 2017 had Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, and Javier in the system, but at that point only Tucker was thought of as an elite prospect. 2017 was a highly rated farm, but many of the top prospects like Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley, David Paulino, Derek Fisher, and others didn’t pan out.

It is incredibly difficult to begin an effective rebuild when a team has 2 hall of fame caliber players (like Altuve and Alvarez) under long term control. When you have 2 players that good, the overwhelming odds favor building around them immediately. You don’t trade players like Framber or Tucker in that situation. Pressly may very well be traded, but it would be mostly a salary dump; his return will likely not have a meaningful impact on the farm system. The Astros underwent a shitload of bad injury luck in 2024. Without that they likely win the division going away and are in the ALDS. Heck, even with all the injuries, if Jose Abreu hits like he did prior to 2023, they are probably in the ALDS and nobody is talking about rebuilding. You don’t tear things down when you’re that close. If they were going to do a pre-emptive rebuild, the time to do it was last offseason, when they could have gotten monster hauls for Framber, Tucker, and Bregman, and entered 2025 with the top farm system in baseball. That ship has sailed. Another thing to note is that their farm has been recovering from lost draft picks for 3-4 seasons now. After the next draft will be the first time the Astros will have had a full complement of prospects in their farm since 2020. And despite that the farm has continued to produce 2nd and 3rd tier major leaguers. The Astros have ~$40M to spend and need 2-3 good players in order to be legit contenders. Crane needs to stay out of roster construction decisions. But it’s doable. You can do a player by player comparison of the organization in 2005 vs today and it’s light years difference. There was no Yordan-level player with 4 years of control in 2005. The farm in 2005 had been utterly neglected by McLane for years and was completely barren; that’s not the case today. The Astros are surefire playoff contenders next season. The moves they make over the offseason will determine if they improve into championship contenders. Even if 2025 doesn’t work out, they can enter 2026 with a clear payroll and 2 extra picks in the upcoming draft, plus another year of Brown restocking the farm. One other opinion: Framber and Tucker don’t have much more value now than they will in July, so Houston may as well see if they can make one more run for a ring, because they can also start the rebuild at the deadline if things don’t go their way.

Willson Contreras is probably a better fit. An elite bat who could split 1B/C with Diaz to get them both in the lineup everyday. Contreras could probably play LF too if they made him. He’s got a palatable contract at $51M/3yrs plus a team option.

The summary of this season is Jose Abreu fucked them. His contract on its own is why they didn’t advance further. Had Houston saved that money (or had Abreu been the player they thought they were getting), Houston doesn’t have to press so hard to win the division and likely wins enough games to avoid the wild card round. Who knows what happens in the ALDS and beyond, but Abreu is the shortest line to draw to illustrate why Houston’s season is already over. The bummer is that it could totally bleed over to 2025.

Ok so 43% of voters minimum will be pulling the lever for Trump. Who the fuck are they and how can they possibly do that? Here’s my guess: 3% of voters are single issue sexists; they simply will not vote for a woman for president 5% of voters a truly reprehensible human beings. They’re racist, sexist, classist pieces of shit. 7% of voters are single issue anti-abortion voters. 9% of voters are completely ignorant of where either candidate stands on any given issue; they know absolutely nothing and really couldn’t give you a reason why they vote the way they do; this number may be shocking but I would bet it’s actually much higher 9% of voters are single issue personal income tax voters (many of them are misinformed on how each candidate will actually impact their own income tax bill) 10% of voters are single issue racist voters; they vote for the candidate they think will prioritize white interests over the interests of non-whites Those numbers I pulled out of my ass but I’d be interested in how the board thinks it breaks down or what data/research actually shows.

You’d think the GOP nominee’s wife coming out as full on pro choice would be a bigger deal. Welp, throw it on the pile.

Star hitters (3): Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker Good hitters (1): Diaz Below average hitters (1): Caratini Pena is a star hitter against lefties but a below average hitter against righties Singleton is an above average hitter against righties but an unplayable hitter against lefties Meyers is an above average hitter against lefties but a poor hitter against righties Dubon is an average hitter against lefties but a poor hitter against righties Prior to this season, McCormick was a superstar hitter against lefties and an average hitter against righties; this season he was unplayable against both Dezenzo has a very high upside but also a very low ceiling, and he likely will be a below average defender if used at 3B. He would likely be an average defender at 1B, LF, or RF. Whitcomb could potentially be a plus player in LF or 1B. He would be average at 2B or RF and nearly-unplayable at 3B or SS. No other position player prospects should be expected to meaningfully contribute in early 2025, but there are several top prospects who could become key contributors in the 2nd half of next season (Brice Matthews, Pedro Leon, Jacob Melton, Kenedy Corona, Zach Cole, Jeron Williams, Luis Baez). Kessinger, Salazar, Cabbage, and Hummel are DFA candidates you hope to stash in AAA. In terms of lineup, the Astros actually project to have a really good lineup against lefties. But against righties they need 2 bats, 1 who can hit in the top 4 and one who can hit in the 5-7 range. Those bats need to be able to play OF or 3B. Tor SP (2): Framber, Brown MoR SP (2): Blanco, Garcia BoR SP (1): Arrighetti Closers (2): Hader, Abreu Setup (1): Pressly MR (6): Scott, Ort, King, Dubin, Martinez, Murfee Whitley and Sousa are out of options RP who have pretty high ceilings. Gusto, Ortega, Hernandez, France, and Contreras are guys you want stashed in AAA. No other young pitchers should be expected to meaningfully contribute early in 2025, but there’s over a dozen arms who could help in the 2nd half of next season (led by Blubaugh, Ullola, and Gordon). Javier is expected back in July. Lance McCullers passed away a few years ago. The pitching staff is really good as-is. But given the injury risk across the board, ideally there’d be another quality SP added to that mix, one whom you don’t mind starting a playoff game. I like the chatter around trading for Lowe from TB. The OF and SP markets seem deep enough that a team that spends wisely will get good value.

So it currently projects to 49-48-2?

Dude thinks $5M is a number to be calling out as a threshold for the super wealthy.

Vance clearly has a high IQ, he’s Pete Buttigieg with a beard (pun intended). It’s really too bad he’s a piece of shit with zero integrity. The net of this debate so far is bad for Harris but so far not bad enough to make a meaningful difference. Of the trio of bad shit for Harris today, this debate is way down the list from Iran attacking Israel and port workers striking.

This is me acting like a conspiracy nut, but I actually think Trump is the cause of both events. The head of the port workers union is a Trumper. And Netanyahu almost certainly prefers Trump to Harris, if for no other reason than he knows Trump is completely ineffectual and will do nothing to push back on his agenda.

Port strike and Iran attacking Israel are not good developments for Harris.

Precedent. Not trying to be a dick, just wanna make sure you aren’t going through your whole life making that mistake.

If you mean for today, no way. Singleton and Heyward are awful against lefties. But against a righty I think you’ll see Heyward for Dubon and Singleton for Caratini. If McCormick were fully healthy I’d rather he be in LF than Dubon but otherwise I like this lineup.

Yep. I am pro union but fuck that guy and fuck their unreasonable demands.

I assume that they will Taft Hartley and just waited because they wanted the 90 days to last thru the election and long enough after to make it a non issue at the polls.

Crazy record for 1 run games. Normalize that to .500 and this is a 90-95 win team. Normalize it to their record in other games and they’re a 97 win team. Thats amazing considering the number of SP innings lost to injury and the fact that their $20M/yr 1B died last year.

I will also say that it’s possible Walz’s confidence is shaken because he’s been taking prep against Pete Buttigieg.

This will not go like the Harris-Trump debate went. Walz might “win” but it will not be because he totally pantses Vance or because Vance comes off as a bumbling idiot. There is a lot of downside for Harris/Walz in this debate because they have the momentum and it’s very close to Election Day; Walz could very well cost them the election with a really bad performance, and there’s almost nothing he could do that would widen their lead to the point of making it a landslide. Walz needs to “keep it real” without coming off as elderly or a bumpkin or having an “oops” moment (although that kind of flub won’t bury him the way it did Perry because Walz is so likable). He does that, he will be fine. Do no harm.

That restaurant is a better politician than the GOP VP nominee.

Congrats, but don’t be dismissive of the work you’ve done. You’ve earned an independent child and you’ve earned the good relationship you have with her. My parents loved me, but they couldn’t wait to get me out of the house. I was the baby, so getting rid of me meant an empty nest. They didn’t help me plan for college, didn’t help me pay for anything, didn’t help me find somewhere to live, didn’t help me move. I remember both my roommates’ parents being there on move-in day, and one of them getting emotional. After they left, I remember telling my roommate, “be grateful your parents wanted to be here. My parents are probably having sex right now.”

Comal County is the worst. Buck Burnett country.

This is fucking enraging. Whatever disagreement Trump has with Zelensky, Zelensky is the head of state that has been invaded and had hundreds of thousands of its people (many civilians, many women and children) killed and severely wounded, and Trump is going to make a public spectacle of praising his relationship with Zelensky’s enemy, the head of state of the country that invaded him, WHILE HES STANDING NEXT TO ZELENSKY? Trump is a no class motherfucker. But he’s also a buffoon in every arena, especially foreign policy.

There’s a ton that could go wrong. Either Harris or Walz could have a major health problem or be assassinated. The Middle East could break out into full scale war (Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon, Iranian/Saudi attack on Israel). A terrorist attack on US soil. A black stock market event (e.g. Nvidia found fraudulent, hundreds of billions in value obliterated). A scandal on Harris or Walz (infidelity, corruption). Even though Harris appears to be leading across all the swing states, we’re still talking about just tens of thousands of votes in 3-4 states making the difference. A lot of bad shit can happen in 38 days.