Snake Diggity

Unfortunately if Harris outperforms the polls across the board that will be concrete evidence that the election was rigged. “Hurr durr how is it that Harris was tied or within 2 pts of Trump in ALL the polls yet she won by 5-6 points?! Explain that, libtard!”

With 39 days to go, WI and MI polling show that without some kind of course reversal, they will go to Harris without much chance of dispute. That puts the map at 251-219 in favor of Harris with NV, AZ, GA, PA, and NC in play. The sum of polls for them have all very slightly favored Harris. Harris needs to avoid anything that can change the trajectory while busting ass to stretch PA to get the margin wide enough to prevent Trump from viably contesting the result. Trump’s ceiling is 287 with another 26 being close enough to contest. Harris’s ceiling is 318 with another 47 being close enough to contest. My current prediction is Harris winning 302-236, with Trump, with no proof, crying foul and trying to overturn results in NC, PA, AZ, and WI, while actual fraud (in Trump’s favor) is found in OH and FL.

40 days until the election.

It’s like “Run, Spot. Run.”

~10% of American adults didn’t graduate high school. ~52% of American adults did not graduate college. ~70% of Americans fail a basic civic literacy quiz on topics like the three branches of government, the number of Supreme Court justices, and other basic functions of our democracy. We have woefully unqualified electorate.

The overall odds may not have shifted that dramatically, but Harris’ ceiling sure has been raised. Biden’s best case scenario was winning the blue wall by enough to have the election called on election night and not having to wait on AZ or GA. Harris’ best case includes winning every Atlantic coast state outside of SC, and potentially having this thing put to bed before the sun sets in Austin.

His real answer there was “who knows about anything”. Thats really the only part that he said that he actually believes. He’s pretty much revealed that he doesn’t understand in the slightest what cryptocurrency actually is and thinks it’s a scam. Luckily for him the idiots who are passionate about it will give support to literally anyone who just says the word “crypto” over and over, even if that person has no fucking clue what they’re talking about.

My personal experience (and what little science I’ve read), there is no ranking. You’ve got to have all 3 (diet, exercise, sleep). If I have ever stopped prioritizing any one of them, they all 3 fall apart. You can lose track of other very important things (gratitude, sunlight, human interaction, a sense of purpose) and still potentially be ok, but if you’re not eating right, exercising enough, or sleeping enough, you’re fucked no matter what.

Caveat: Purely anecdotal. I’ve tried just about every prescription and supplement known to man, mostly in an effort to tame depression and sleep issues. These are the only things I’ve tried that have consistently worked for me: Tart cherry juice has helped me sleep. Ambien fucked me up. If I’m desperate for sleep I take one children’s Benadryl, but it’s only good very infrequently. Fish oil has helped my overall health (take in the AM with food, it can cause regurgitation). You’ve probably heard all this already, but just general advice for folks experiencing sleep loss and/or depression: Above all, diet, outdoor exercise, and sleep routine have been the most influential things I’ve changed to help myself. Exercise outside every single day (weather permitting), at least 30 minutes, early in the day if possible. Avoid sugar and alcohol. Eat more leafy greens, fish, and whole fruit. Superfoods that I feel have improved my mental health: spinach, blueberries, flax seeds, salmon Block out 10 (yes, 10) hours of time for sleep each night. Spend those 10 hours in a cool, quiet, dark room in a comfortable bed with a comfortable pillow. Don’t drink anything starting 2 hours before bedtime. No caffeine after 3pm. Spend time (even if it’s just a few seconds) every day mentally listing good things in your life. Good luck.

Right. The takeaway was that the “absolute nuttiest of the nutty” makes up like 35% of the country, and another 15% are either evil or too lazy to vote under even the most dire circumstances.

Funny you mention 9/11, because I have thought since it happened that if we were anything other than fucked that Jan 6 would have been a 9/11 style moment in terms of galvanization of the country, and everybody but the absolute nuttiest of the nutty would have been like “ok, that’s enough, fuck Trump and his followers”.

Not trying to derail OP’s thread, but his post is part of a lot of anecdotal and statistical evidence I’ve seen over the last couple of years that right now is a pretty bad time to be a 45-65 year old worker. I think elements of that are true at all times but if you look at current demographic data it makes even more sense these days. The Boomers are hanging around and have a lot of the good jobs and there are a shitload of Millenials who now have good experience and are finally motivated to move up the ladder, so Gen X’ers (people aged 45-60) are getting squeezed. I think that will change in 5-10 years as most Boomers are forced to retire and their jobs open up and the generations coming behind the Millenials are smaller and smaller. (AI/automation could fuck that up and take away a lot of jobs.) I don’t have good advice for OP since he’s older and in a different situation to any I’ve ever been in, but if I were giving advice, I’d agree with almost everyone else here: figure out your marriage first, then figure out your career. In terms of career, I’d say if your heart isn’t in continuing on your business, I bet you’ll be able to find a job in construction management of some kind, but you’ll have to have pretty low expectations; it always takes longer to find something and it’s never as good a job as you hoped for when you started looking.

“Trump is going to flee to a non-extradition country” is the Dem nut bar equivalent of MAGA’s “Kamala performed a coup on Biden to circumvent the electoral process”. Trump ain’t going nowhere. The most significant consequence of his behavior that he will actually possibly experience is losing the election(s). He will not go to prison. He will not flee the country. He will keep whining and grifting like he has for 5 decades. He just won’t be the (only) face of the GOP.

I don’t think this will help Allred. It wouldn’t surprise me if Cruz saw his lead eroding and asked to debate. Cruz is a soulless scumbag but he’s not stupid or senile so debating against someone like Allred is unlikely to hurt him.

Yeah if Harris wins NC but loses PA…that seems implausible to me.

Harris winning Michigan and Pennsylvania means Trump has to win all 4 of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to get to 270. Interesting to me that there aren’t too many plausible scenarios where Nevada is the difference maker.

Our country’s biggest problem is that most people think our issues are rooted around race, gender, or ideology, when it’s really about rich vs poor and urban vs rural. I am sensitive to issues of gender and race inequality but I truly believe a lot of the bandwidth those topics get is really just a ploy by rich people to get poor people to focus on something other than how much they’re getting fucked over by rich people. The rural vs urban thing is more logical. Rural people don’t engage in society in the same way urban people, so it’s reasonable that they’d have very different views on how government should be run. Liberals/Dems do a very poor job marketing their ideas to rural people; this is one area where I think Walz’s VP selection was great.

In the analogy, the scoreboard is blurry as fuck. Some people think the Dems are up 10, some think they’re up 3, others think it’s tied.

Using a football analogy, the Dems are up by 10 pts midway through the 3rd quarter, and they have the ball. Barring key injuries or a defensive collapse, they will win the game. But the game is far from over.

Is “assassination attempt on man who attempted to overturn a free and fair election and continually attempts to undermine democracy” a surprising or even negative headline? The bigger surprise is that there weren’t more publicly known attempts from 2016-2023. Trump made a comment that Harris’s and Biden’s rhetoric are causing people to try to kill him. But if their rhetoric is the truth, how can you blame them?

If a candidate wins the popular vote by more than 5 points and loses the electoral college, there should be a full scale revolt.

7 weeks to go, key dates for things that could change the outcome: 9/17: Fed meets on Sep 17-18; their announcement about rate changes could have dramatic impact on the stock market and sentiment toward Harris. 9/20: Early voting begins; exit polling and other insights might start showing up. 10/1: VP debate; for now it looks quite likely that Walz/Harris will receive another bump, but a major snafu could erode their momentum. 10/4: Sept jobs report released 10/10: Sept inflation report released 11/5: Election Day Unscheduled or unknown events that could change things: Assassinations and assassination attempts Health problems for either candidate or their running mates Scandals (affairs, etc.) Developments in Ukraine/Israel wars Significant stories involving illegal immigrants I think there’s more downside for Trump in the unknowns than for Harris. I think Trump is more likely to get killed, have healthy problems, or have a scandal. Harris is more vulnerable to negative outcomes related to stories on the economy, Ukraine/Israel, and immigration, but I think it’s limited. I don’t think the majority of Americans actually would prefer Trump to handle something like the aftermath of Putin firing off a nuke, or Iran escalating with the Israelies. Interestingly, it doesn’t look like the actual crimes that Trump has been indicted for are going to have any material impact on the election; that’s insane to me.

Gotta admit, Donald Trump is all class.

DaSentence Bosworth Absolut Verdict Maxamoose Richards Tactical Booty-Jones Buh-bye Terrence Abdullahad

Our system was not meant to withstand the pressures of Trumpism.