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dimyh

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Everything posted by dimyh

  1. Thanks, pretty fair view of the current struggle. Here is a link to an article by Pomorenko which gives some more details on the action in the Donbass. Hoping that UA can stand firm in Lysychansk and rely on some of the terrain advantages but the Russian push from the south is a concern. https://kyivindependent.com/national/as-ukraine-withdraws-from-sievierodonetsk-battle-of-donbas-enters-next-phase
  2. At least Napoleon got to burn Moscow to the ground before his entire army disintegrated. Putin could take his and lose to yours and then take yours and lose to his. Top notch coach right there.
  3. With that much aid, Ukraine is going to be giving Russia more than the tip.
  4. Putin's wallet is taking a major hit: https://www.ft.com/content/8cbfc961-cf57-4c71-96ca-bb144c6dd676 Gazprom shares plunge 25% after dividend blocked Gazprom lost a quarter of its market value on Thursday after the Russian state-backed group said investors had blocked plans to pay a large dividend. “The shareholders decided that in the current situation it is not advisable to pay dividends based on the 2021 results,” said deputy chief executive Famil Sadygov. The company’s biggest shareholder is the Russian state, which directly holds a 38 per cent stake with an additional 12 per cent owned by two other state companies. The stock plunge on Thursday prompted Moscow’s stock exchange to halt trading of the group’s shares. Gazprom’s board recommended a dividend of Rbs52.53 in May on the back of soaring gas prices, as its 2021 net profit hit an all-time high of Rbs2tn. The recommendation would have meant a record payout of Rbs1.2tn, or $22.8bn at the current exchange rate. Gazprom announced its new dividend policy in 2019, with the plan to pay out 50 per cent of profits by 2022 — a decision that quickly made it the biggest company by market capitalisation in Russia. The shareholder rejection of the payout marks the first time since 1998 the company has not paid a dividend. Stock in several other Russian energy groups also dropped on Thursday morning on expectations their boards may follow suit. Russia’s top oil producer Rosneft lost nearly 7 per cent in early trading hours on Thursday, Rosseti power distribution company shed 5 per cent in share value, third-largest producer Surgutneftegas dropped nearly 3 per cent, and Transneft pipeline operator lost 2 per cent. State-owned Sberbank, Russia’s top lender, also announced on Thursday it would not pay dividends for last year, prompting a 5 per cent fall in the company’s shares. Gazprom’s dividend news comes as the company reduces gas supplies to customers in Europe, including Germany’s Uniper, which issued a profit warning on Thursday. While Gazprom’s sales have been falling, dropping almost 30 per cent year on year in the first half of 2022, soaring gas prices have helped it offset the losses.
  5. I thought sanctions weren't working? How do you like them apples, Vlad?
  6. Millions/Billions whatever calculus you want to use, the point is that even in the most optimistic scenarios Russia has a hefty arsenal of glow in the dark scented candles to gift out to the west.
  7. The attack on the mall was with KH 22 missiles which were older Soviet tech that even Ukraine discontinued. They were originally designed as anti-ship missiles for use against aircraft carriers. So Russia is reaching really deep in their old warchest at this point. Still fucking dangerous but I'm curious how much they have got stockpiled before they have to start rolling out some trebuchets. https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/12/russia-increasingly-relying-on-heavy-soviet-era-missiles-western-defence-officials-claim Russia increasingly relying on heavy Soviet-era missiles, Western defence officials claim By Euronews with AP • Updated: 12/06/2022 Elena Holovko sits among debris outside her house damaged after a missile strike in Druzhkivka, eastern Ukraine, 5 June 2022 - Copyright AP Photo/Bernat Armangue Russian forces are increasingly relying on heavy Soviet-era weapons that can cause mass casualties and significant collateral damage in their bid to make headway in capturing eastern Ukraine. Fierce, prolonged fighting is depleting resources on both sides, according to British and US defence officials. Russian bombers are thought to have been launching hefty 1960s-era anti-ship missiles in Ukraine, the UK Defence Ministry said on Saturday. The Kh-22 missiles, with a reported range of 1,000 kilometres, were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers and can carry a nuclear warhead. When used in ground attacks with conventional warheads, they "are highly inaccurate and therefore can cause severe collateral damage and casualties," the ministry said. It is unclear how many Kh-22s Russia has in its arsenal. By 2006, Ukraine has scrapped 423 missiles it inherited from the Soviet Union after deciding to decommission the weapon. Both sides have expended large amounts of weaponry in what has become a grinding war of attrition for the eastern region of coal mines and factories known as the Donbas, placing huge strains on their resources and stockpiles. Russia is likely using the 5.5-tonne anti-ship missiles because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, the UK ministry said. It gave no details of where exactly such missiles are thought to have been deployed.
  8. Nukes require some maintenance but even if only a third of their nukes are functional then that is still enough to kill millions.
  9. That kraken artillery strike is a chef's kiss. Beautiful accuracy on the longball.
  10. How large do they gotta be? Ohhhh I thought you meant goats!
  11. I really really hope this story is true. Nothing more aggy than being foiled by a single goat. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/20/7353684/ Goat accidentally neutralises several invaders in Zaporizhzhia Oblast MONDAY, 20 JUNE 2022, 21:30 5226 0Додати у вибране Mykhailo Zagorodniy – Monday, 20 June 2022 A nanny goat has injured several Russian servicemen by triggering their tripwires with pinned grenades in the village of Kinski Rozdory in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukraine’s Chief Intelligence Directorate has shared a curious incident that happened at a local hospital. A total of 40 invaders have been stationed at the medical institution in Kinski Rozdory. The Russian military installed a "circular defence" and placed tripwires around the perimeter of the hospital. The aggressors regretted this decision after a goat from a neighbouring farm decided to pay a visit to the hospital. As the frightened animal moved chaotically around the area, she accidentally "disposed of" several grenades. The unexpected "guest’s" actions triggered a chain reaction, wounding several Russian soldiers to varying degrees. It is not currently known whether the goat survived the incident.
  12. A short video on Kalingrad/Crimea as exclaves containing key ports along with some of the back history. Also I believe some of Russia's support in Syria was to have a friendly port accessible outside of the Bosphorus. Would be a damn shame if they lost the ability to store those rustbuckets...
  13. Just in time for my Sunday walk - new Perun video doing a deep dive on the economies. Lots of tidbits in here but in summary both sides can keep this war running financially for quite a while. What's interesting is that the new Ladamobiles are coming out but with no automated seatbelts, airbags, other electronic features, etc. So we can look forward to more entertaining dashcam footage!
  14. Well I give them this much, the Ruskies believe in truth in advertising: we are going to kill your men and steal your children. They probably have a mural around back showing what they do with the women.
  15. I think Putin lost his strategic goals the moment he sent troops across the border. Even if they had mopped up in a couple of weeks his strategic goal to rebuild the USSR 2.0 was going to be a long time failure. The results would have been a regalvanized NATO, a pissed Ukrainian populace that would have to be policed for years, plus all the other sunk costs for the war. All to have the same inevitable economic collapse vs the west. What we are fighting for now is just trying to accelerate the decline of an aging empire and making a point that naked power grabs are not to be tolerated. The Russian casualties are definitely encouraging. This is going to boil down to the Battle of the Benches. Whoever can organize and train up the JV team is going to make the difference. My concern the past few weeks is just not hearing enough about the UA reinforcements. And that their most experienced front lines may have getting ground down hard too. If we can start to see consistent gains in Kherson then I could be more confident, it's just tough to be patient when people's lives are on the line.
  16. I'm basing my assumption that once Russia's offensive fizzles out that they are going to sue for peace with territorial claims for whatever clay that their orcs are currently looting. I think they are very desperate to come out of this with Luhansk, Donetsk, and bonus prize of Kherson oblasts. If Ukraine can't mount a successive counter offensive and this war becomes a stalemate through winter I could see Germany, France, and Italy start clamoring for a peace settlement which could include loosening of the sanctions.
  17. I'm not the financial whiz but here are some articles about the state of the Russian economy. While holding steady in the short term, the long term prospects look bleak. Unfortunately its not going to be an immediate deterioration and I'm still worried that EU/US doesn't have the appetite to keep up sanctions for a conclusive victory. CEO of Sberbank (Russia) already describing a decade long recovery to reach pre-sanctions levels. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GLOBAL-PORTS-HOLDING-PLC-34897151/news/Russian-economy-may-need-a-decade-to-return-to-pre-sanctions-levels-Sberbank-says-40752045/ (Reuters) - Russia's economy may need a decade to return to the pre-sanctions levels of 2021, the chief executive of the country's top bank Sberbank said on Friday, as economic curbs have cut the country off from half of its trade. Western nations imposed economic sanctions on Russia, the most severe a nation in a modern history has faced, after Moscow sent troops to Ukraine on Feb. 24 calling it "special military operation". Russian assets took an immediate hit and consumer prices have soared, prompting authorities to introduce capital controls, hike the key rate and curb foreign investors' ability to sell their assets in Russia. German Gref, whose bank is seen as a proxy for the Russian economy by holding the majority of the household deposits and corporate loans, estimated on Friday that countries that hit Russia with sanctions accounted for 56% of its exports and 51% of imports. "This is a threat to 15% of the country's gross domestic product, the bulk of the economy is under the fire," Gref, a former economy minister, told Russia's annual international economic forum in St Petersburg. "As a result - and if we do nothing - we may need around a decade to return economy to the 2021 levels," Gref said, calling for structural reforming of the Russian economy. Sanctions on Russian banks have largely curbed financial transactions with foreign counterparts while Russia is also blocked from receiving equipment and parts essential for its car, energy and air industries. According to Gref, cargo shipments have fallen by six times while transportation by the sea and by air was also obstructed as sanctions prevented Russian airlines from flying westbound and ships under Russian flag were banned entrance to EU ports. While admitting major setbacks, Russian officials have said that the economy is doing better than initially expected, with some flows already diversifying and higher energy prices - partially resulting from sanctions - helping the state revenues. As European Union prepares to ditch Russian fossil fuels by 2027, Russia has re-routed over a half of its oil supplies to Asia, Alexander Dyukov, head of the country's third biggest oil producer Gazprom Neft, told the same forum. Dmitry Pankov, chief executive with Delo Group which operates Russia's top railway cargo company Transcontainer and Global Ports firm with sea terminals in the country's north-west, far east and south, said that while the drop in cargo shipments continues, Asian clients started to emerge. "They are not global (cargo sea) lines - mostly local operators," he told the same forum on Friday. (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Alison Williams) © Reuters 2022
  18. I mean they did slaughter a bunch of traffic lights but should we really count them in the Russian totals?
  19. DAMN THOSE RUDE AMERICANS!
  20. More on the Ukes counter offensive towards Kherson. The one consistent tactical advantage has been the flexibility and mobility of the Ukrainian infantry. Since they have an inverse composition problem than the Russians, with more foot soldiers and not enough heavy firepower, maybe they can leverage broad counter attacks to negate losses vs the main Russian attack force. Russia has adapted from their initial mistake of trying to attack everywhere all at once. By amassing artillery they can achieve local domination to slowly grind out territory. The big question is if Ukrainian defensive lines around Severodonetsk/Lyshansk area can hold long enough for the counter offensives to score wins in the south. Especially unsure if the Ukrainian forces have enough to quickly regain Kherson. They might get bogged down in urban fighting. Overall it is still a major attritional war but if they keep a fluid counter attack strategy going they might be able to out maneuver the Russians who can only push when they have artillery dominance.
  21. Unfortunately France and HRE are different culture groups so even after annexing Crimea and starting another no CB war its not going to generate enough AE to trigger a coalition.
  22. Quality video from Perun that covers a lot of the manpower issues on the Russian side that atom has been talking about since the start of the war. I'm not quite as optimistic in the overall outcome as you are due to concerns about western longterm support (money and heavy hardware) and stomach for a prolonged conflict if this turns into an attritional stalemate. But definitely agree that the Russian manpower/machinery ratios are out of whack and a severe limitation on an extended offensive push.
  23. Tl;dr - I wish there was a game where I could stab Putin in the face. And express the duality of man.
  24. As bullshit it may be, I can understand some of the sentiment. Personally I feel entirely weak and ineffectual watching this shit rage on in Ukraine. Aside from donating a little cash, I feel like I'm pacing the sidelines, unable to do anything but keep up with news reports. So I daydream about making my own story, fighting the good fight, or better yet, a game that allows me to live in that fantasy. In that regards I do have a game pitch to sell to a developer like Naughty Dog. A game like the Last of Us: a linear storyline with survival gameplay mechanics. It would be inspired by Man on Fire, Apocalypse Now, and Going After Cacciato. Basically a revenge story but mixed with alt-history fantasy of trying to survive in a major warzone as an average citizen. Prologue: You start out as a normal Ukrainian dad, with wife and a couple of kids, living in Odesa. You have a normal office type job, possibly a software engineer, someone moderately well off but not an exceptional individual. A typical Ukrainian everyman. There are rumors of the Russian invasion but you are blowing it off as just a political scare and not a real threat. Which is shattered on Feb 24th and you quickly have to scramble on a plan to evacuate your family and figure out what you are going to be doing. A tearful goodbye to your family as you ship them off on a bus ride to Lviv and eventually over the border to Poland (with an Easter egg of @Brisketexan's kid handing out breakfast burritos and chatting up the ladies in the background). The local militia doesn't have any concrete plans for you so you take the opportunity to go check on the rest of your family: your parents and your brother living in Kherson. Act 1: As you journey east, you keep checking on news updates as you struggle to figure out what is going on and what best to do. Tidbits of news are dropped at different checkpoints. Finally making it into Kherson you find your parent but your brother has already moved east to report to duty in Mariupol. After a long discussion you can't convince them to evacuate, they think they are safe as long as they don't do anything wrong. You decide to push on to Mariupol to find your brother. Now you are starting to see more of war first hand, Russian troops are setting up checkpoints, you are seeing protestors stymy the invaders, some light shelling of cars and residents, and you are having to be more careful moving east. Eventually you make your way to Mariupol only to find it surrounded and under siege. You manage to find your way in, making connections with resistance groups and running various missions to help civilians in need while you still are trying to figure out what happened to your brother. You get to witness first hand some of brutality as you are still not enlisted to fight but simply someone trying to help people where needed. You are running around, bedding down in various places each night, meeting new people and hearing their stories when you get captured by a couple of Russians. They are marching you back when you get rescued by a couple of Azov guys and your...brother. Act 2: Reunited with your sibling you find he's been learning from a few of the Azov guys and fighting throughout the city but everything is clamping down. Morale is down and while many are still steadfast they understand if people can get out then they won't hold it against them. So y'all hear about some of the humanitarian corridors and plan to sneak out that way but witness first hand the Russians reneging on the deal. It becomes one clusterfuck after another, sneaking through lines, but finally escaping from the city only to find y'all bouncing from town to town, trying to stay clear of the heavy action. You get picked up by a couple of Ukrainian soldiers making a resupply run to Sievierodonetsk where you connect with the other defensive forces in the area. Again caught in the action, you are running small missions supporting the regular ops teams, and learning to handle rifles and seeing NLAWS in action. Everything seems to be holding fine when a Russian artillery barrage catches everyone by surprise. Y'all are both knocked unconscious and wake up to find yourself firmly behind Russian lines as POWs. Also with you is a Russian deserter who is being held for refusing to fight. Between torture sessions that you and your brother are going through, you find out more of the perspective of the Russian soldier - originally a conscript deceived into signing a contact and never quite understood the full magnitude of the "special operation". Things are looking bleak when a counterattack levels part of the base and all 3 of y'all manage to escape. Deep in enemy territory y'all continue to evade forces until a Ukrainian drone strike ends up killing your brother. Now its just you and the deserter in a full panic fire drill. Act 3: Y'all manage to escape to a calm zone. You are crushed, seeing your brother fragged right in front of your eyes. You are sick of all the bullshit witnessed first hand and you see the only way to make it stop is to cut the head off the snake --- kill Putin. The Russian is sick of the war too and he just wants to go home. So y'all concoct a new plan: help each other get through Russia until y'all reach his hometown of Kursk. Once there you will be on your own to infiltrate Moscow and perform the impossible. Y'all do make it to Kursk and you get to meet his parents with you disguised as a fellow soldier that was "released" from duty. However his parents are full propaganda swallowers and don't believe their own son's description of the war. Sick of his refusal to fight they kick y'all out. Now he is crushed too and decides to join you on the crazy assassination mission. Working into Moscow you do find out that there is a growing resistance movement upset about all of the crackdowns ("Once you have taken away our voices all we have left are our fists"). Y'all manage to hook up with this group and take on some sabotage missions and getting some precious intel on Putin's estate. With the resistance growing into a full bloom near civil war, you and the Russian deserter manage to make it into the compound. Putin's security forces are lighter than normal due to either busy dealing with protesters/resistance attacks or simply being paid off/jumping ship due to Putin's treatment, you have a slim chance of success. Artfully working your way through the compound, hiding under dramatically long tables, you manage to take out the guards and corner Putin where you proceed to: Bash. His. Disgusting. Goblin. Face. In. Epilogue: Once the climatic thrill of the kill subsides, you and your new Russian buddy realize it is not going fix everything but it is a big step to ending this nonsensical war. You invite him back to your home, to start up a new life in Ukraine, and rebuild from this misery. Y'all leave Moscow with Z symbols crashing down or being burned away to make it back to Kyiv where you wife and kids are returned. After a nice tearful reunion, the whole gang loads up in a car for a road trip back to Odesa, with new uncle Yuri laughing it up with your kids. So yeah a full-fledged happy ending but hopefully a sobering journey through the helplessness of war. Gameplay is not going to be a Call of Duty run-n-gun type of action game but more focused on stealth and survival against the backdrop of a near total war. There should be enough time to meet the other common citizens caught in the crossfires and to hear their personal stories. The first half of the game could be very factual, including real events from the conflict so that those stories are not forgotten. Plus interspersed nuggets such as the Bucha massacres to highlight that this is the first major war to fully include social media. Towards the midpoint it will veer into alt-history territory, where we can imagine your little journey becoming this epic assassination mission. At a meta level the story would have an underlying theme of how media/propaganda can be manipulated. Gamers should check out the events in the game and try to figure out which events were based on real moments and which ones were just pure fiction. Because one thing is very clear about this entire war: manipulating the propaganda to entice the population is dangerous enough, but for Putin to buy-in so deeply as well is catastrophic. Not all Russians buy-in to this nonsense but enough do to make this war possible. Getting people to (rationally) think for themselves is an important first defense against willful misinformation.
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