dimyh

Yeah defense spending is going to be crazy. And we are not even factoring the need to up spending for some obvious gaps in our 21st C playbook. Clearly we have a tractor gap that we need to rectify pronto!

And on a lighter note...

Check out this YT channel with various interviews of random Russians. Most of the younger ones appear to be more aware of the propaganda (and plenty just being oblivious youth) while it is the few older ones that skew into that hardline narrative. While there is a bunch of complicit acceptance it helps to understand that they are not all brainwashed.

Appreciate all the updates that you and Worldwide provide. I don't pretend to understand EU politics but y'all help me get an idea on how the general mood is with the populace. We know the will of the Ukrainians is strong...the bigger doubt is if the EU can stay united on sanctions and match that resolve. Putin miscalculated on the severity of the initial EU response but he's not wrong in that the weakest link still lies in Germany not wanting to give up their cheap gas. Here is an article from the FAZ talking about the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and some of his troubles trying to get them on board with the cause:

Interesting article trying to confirm Russian KIA counts based on posthumous medals. It only follows the first week of action but aligns with some of the Ukrainian numbers. https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

@956 Worldwide @Shady Ray Any updates on the general public perception in Germany/EU at the moment? We are past the initial shock phase and was curious how strong their sanction sentiment was running. Would love to see a quick Russian capitulation but this could easily become a multi year economic struggle. Definitely need EU on board and committed if we are ever going to bury this neo-Soviet nonsense.

Here is a RT propaganda piece giving a nice view of port and this ship's capabilities before going kaboom. This is definitely going to fuck with RU's supplies around Mariupol.

I think this young lady approves

May be wishful thinking but if UA can defeat these pockets in detail do they have enough time to reinforce Mariupol? That is my biggest concern at this point is if Russia can link up Crimea and Donbass then just sit back trying to get favorable peace terms. Assuming that they can slowly consolidate some logistical supply lines on that eastern front and continue with punitive artillery fire on Kyiv, Odessa, etc. Which seems most consistent with what's in Putin's playbook.

Bring out yer dead! Actually a nice story about exchanging dead Russians for captured Ukrainians. Also surprising that the Russians don't have any ID'S or dog tags. Simply appears to be dehumanizing about it all. https://kyivindependent.com/national/how-ukraine-swaps-living-soldiers-for-dead-russians/

Expecting various non-NATO countries to 1-on-1 the few Russian merc allies is pure fantasy. But I wonder if some NATO military exercises in Poland on the Belarusian side might help tie up their forces. Lukashenko has been waffling since the start about committing his troops but they have been a lingering threat as another invasion front. While I don't think we would actually do anything in Belarus just being there could give Luka enough of a pucker factor to keep him on the sideline.

Reports that some tracks have been sabotaged in Belarus. Not sure if it's true or the extent of the damage but hopefully they have enough of a resistance force to start fucking up more of the Ruskies logistics.

Drone use capability was decisive in the recent Armenia vs Azerjimmyjohhnytommybahami war. Russia's inability to control the air and instead rely on a slow moving tank doctrine has been a gigantic mistake. Especially working in a large flat plains with very little coverage or concealment.

Amen. That's the crux of the issue for my view of Russian expansion vs American expansion: people want to join NATO and are not forced to join NATO. Putin is still married to that old Soviet mindset of might makes right. If they weren't such assholes for such a long time then maybe those ex-Warsaw pact countries wouldn't be running to the west for support.

Pretty gnarly clip of another Zed getting blown to hell. Literally bodies in trees if there were any trees nearby.

Really hope that there is an Andrei Dufresnevich working to escape Putin's bunker and leaving a special parting gift. Like his big red button no longer activates his nukes but permanetly seals his bunker shut and turns on a never ending broadcast loop of Zelensky playing piano with his dong.

Thought this was already disclosed in a previous post...

Article talking about some of the possible economic ramifications as part of the peace treaties. https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist

I'm picking Hasbulla to lead my small but elite gang of carnies to assassinate Putin.

I would guess a small tactical nuke would be used on a supply hub, logistics based target somewhere in western Ukraine. Not a major metro area as that may be considered a major escalation. Someplace smaller, with some type of military importance, as they will be testing the waters too. They don't want escalation; just compliance. They just want to demonstrate their willingness to be crazy enough to utilize nukes at a small scale. They are not going to lob anything into NATO. It would be directed in Ukraine but in a way to announce to NATO you're not welcome. Western Ukraine would be a way to target part of the territory that Putin is now writing off as unobtainable. Plus it's just a big fuck you to NATO about providing military supplies. Since it's in Ukraine it wouldn't classify as an article 5 attack but would be a strong message for anyone volunteering in that area. Either that or trying to target the remaining airfields. Again just another plausible military type of target that would not generate maximum outrage like a civilian metro area.

I still hold out a sliver of hope that this can still turn into a massive win. Maybe it’s the Ghost of Vince Young topping off my burnt orange Koolaid year after year but there is chance to make this a program defining change. It is a bit silly comparing this Ukrainian struggle to some vague sports reference because the stakes are very real. This is not some gridiron glory. People are dying and there are many more to come which just breaks my heart. But there is one thing very relevant to this whole discussion: Putin has made a tremendous blunder. Which also means there is a tremendous opportunity in front of us. It has become very clear after 3 weeks: Russian military is decimated. Not just in equipment and manpower but in overall reputation. No one is fearing their sitzkrieg invasion prowess. They can barely waddle down the end of their driveway, put down a lawn chair, and then lob explosive lawn darts at their next-door neighbor. Plus they didn’t even plan to bring enough beer and brats to last longer than a weekend cookout! Even if they escape this war without further major losses, they will be spending years trying to reform their army and replenishing lost equipment. Russian economy is decimated. Whatever territorial and mineral rights gains it may win from Ukraine is not going to offset the current economic damage. Even if the sanctions soften over time, the decoupling from Western markets is going to be too huge of a hole to recover from. The old Soviet Union was in a better economic situation and still could not afford to match Western defense spending. The new Putin empire is far from that capability and in the best situation is going to have a historical redux moment. NATO unification. Clearly the unprovoked attacks have galvanized the EU like nothing else in recent memory. For such a skillful propagandist, Putin doesn’t seem to understand that building “us vs them” narratives just strengthens both sides. While it may be important to build for his domestic support, the fact that his aggression is only going to strengthen the resolve of his number one enemy. Worldwide condemnation. While not as strong as the EU response, nonetheless the fact that a record majority of nations disapproved of his invasion is a strong indicator of what a pariah Putin’s state has become. Ukrainian identity. The entire world underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people. While a national identity has always been building this invasion simply accelerates that growth. Not only for the fine Ukrainian citizens but this is clear to the rest of the world that this is clearly a sovereign nation. Ukrainian bloodlines. Finally, maybe the greatest blunder of all is the targeting of Slavic brothers and sisters in this attack. While the Putin propaganda machine is spinning the demilitarization and denazification angles to his home audience. The longer this rolls along the more real news is going to trickle back. Once the Russian citizens start learning about the level of atrocities then that is what ties into the greatest opportunity for a successful resolution. I’m not delusional in that we will ever get Russia to give up nukes or reverse course and become a joyful member in NATO. The opportunity to recalibrate that perception of a Russian strong man needed in their leadership. If (and that’s the big IF) Putin can be ousted and made the scapegoat then there is a good chance that it may become the wakeup call needed. While not as dramatic as the Germans firsthand experience of cleaning up the concentration camps, once average Russian citizens start learning of the flagrant destruction in civilian areas then that may drive that level of outcry needed to change that overall mentality. Who knew that the goosestepping Germans of the 1940’s would turn into the shame-ridden pacifists of today? While I don’t believe that wild of a swing is possible but the fact that public perception can be pushed back to a healthier level is definitely feasible. The under 30 set is not tied into that old Soviet empire mentality. Getting another decade or two, another generation away from that expectation can eventually drive home that the West is not their enemy. Its like the reunion scene between John Cusack and Beamer Bob in Gross Pointe Blank, “Do you really believe that there is some stored up conflict between us that exists?” Long term goal should always be to convince the general Russian populace that the West is not an adversary but a partner. Of course the challenge is getting Putin to “step down”. Which is why if this continues to escalate then the potential play is to engage in the next in command. Find someone from their nuclear chain of command that can be more rational and eager to see that their future no longer aligns with Putin. Putin has to be made the scapegoat. Putin has to be portrayed as the madman. That would be part of the post-war narrative which could absolve some of the next in command. Give them that out along with some assurances that we will work with them to build that narrative that this was an unhinged wargoal. Point that propaganda machinegun on Putin and denounce his actions. Give that general Russian populace the same shock that we have been seeing for weeks now. This is definitely the riskier stance, possibly only coming into play once nuclear escalation threats are ratcheted up, and not something we seek to initiate but may be necessary depending on the circumstances. It may take that level of escalation to gain a commitment on the Russian side to initiate a coup. No one wants to see their country devasted and time turned back 1000 years just because their boss is an asshole. So it needs to be made clear that regime change equals dropping certain level of sanctions. Ceasefire and withdrawal of troops equals further elimination of sanctions (reinstatement of SWIFT, etc). Opening up Russian media to allow some Western sources to provide a wider viewpoint equals further return of funds and assets. That public backlash should help propel some fundamental changes such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of media, etc which should help illustrate the inherent problems with dictatorships. Pushing for reforms such as hard term limits, limiting executive powers, etc help diminish that autocratic drive would be major win and a not so subtle jab at China. Sure it is all a very wishful scenario but it is not completely implausible. The safe play to avoid escalations should also be eventually successful but it does not have that potential payoff with the current scenario. Because right now has to be one of the weakest moments for Russia. Military in disarray. Leadership disorganized. Economic uncertainty. Worldwide condemnation. It may be quite a while for an idiot to make a mistake this overwhelming to line up all of these negative factors at one time on the world stage. So if this continues to escalate it may become more of a question, “if not now, then when”? tldr - Scapegoat Putin, give new regime the path out and for Russian outcry vs autocracy. ??? -> profit