dimyh

I'm thrilled by the resistance to date and the ineptitude shown by the Ruskies has really exceeded my expectations of the general discontent by his citizens. I was under the assumption that a long drawn out occupation would sap their enthusiasm and their economy as long as we had concerted economic sanction plan in place. But I was thinking along a more half decade if not more timeframe when this could very easily be a very quick days/weeks/months desire for a coupe. Agreed and that's why it was critical to not be drawn offsides and make it absolutely clear that Putin was the initiator. That was critical to solidify the support from the EU states. And really made it obvious to many other nation states Putin's ambitions.

Really what kind of bullshit story can Putin craft that he could sell to his peeps to make a war palpable? Saving Russians in the Donbas might have been it but going for a full regime change by sacking full cities was just going to be ugly, even with the filtered state propaganda. Even that would take some time to pitch and build up. It's pretty obvious now that Putin seriously miscalculated so many things and really boils down to his hubris. So many sloppy steps in the buildup and execution so far.

So while all eyes are on Ukraine is there any type of move on Belarus? Earlier Macron was talking about the Russians deploying nukes on their territory. Is that a violation of any type of agreement? Lukashenko hates Putin but becoming the staging ground for an invasion and nukes is making them a straightup vassal. With Tsikhanouskaya still trying to make claims as the legitimate president any thoughts of a coupe? Which may or may not be assisted by NATO assets (allegedly...got to keep the plausible deniability). If staged as public supported uprising then it might give Putin a taste of his own underhanded medicine. That would throw another wrench in the Russian's logistics. Fun to think about but I'm guessing that Putin would take that as a direct attack and put us directly at war. Which I'm still hesitant to pursue when you have someone desperately backed into a corner with that red button threat.

Oh the irony if Russia loses because they started a land war in Russia.

Man I hope you're right. I didn't have high expectations going into this but was thinking the Ukes could make it costly before the numbers just overwhelmed them. Russians have just really floundered. The use of conscripts has been atrocious. Plus the timing of this whole operation has still been a mystery to me. It has to be hubris. Putin has been stocking up the warchest, all the gear, but they can't plan ahead and provide some actual training for these frontliners? How many reserves does he have? And if he has to call up more does that get more protesters out on the streets? This is not a popular war to begin with and every day that sentiment gets uglier. Finally, do you think if this open war lasts past a week is it better for Ukraines to hunker down in a defensive urban war? Or attempt to become more mobile, keep bleeding the Ruskies tanks and APCs and turn this into a classic hit and run? If Ruskies had full air support then that would be off the table but they have haven't wrapped that up yet... If they stay in the city then I'm concerned that the full artillery barage will just eventually decimate them. The optics will be poor for Putin if he goes down that path but he appears to be in the fully "I don't give a shit" mode at this point.

Russian mothers worried about their conscript sons Covers some of the recruiting bullshit involved to get some these kids involved. Despicable for how Putin has handled this whole operation. Hopefully more of this news spreads over there so they can see how maniacal this asshole is.

Link here to a longcat article which pulls in some Russian perspective for the sudden change in diplomatically. No idea of the validity of it all as the references read like some unholy version of Russian Qanon and an aggie manifesto. But I'm wondering if this might be representative of the mindset of some Putin's advisors. Combined with his love of smelling his own ideological farts may explain the dramatic shift in aggression. The main point from all the different articles are based on the hawkish premise that America is now weak. Might makes right and now Russia has the power to stare down USA and become the premier power in Europe. It is all fucking daft but I'm still grasping at straws to make sense of this whole mess. "If the West is firm, the Kremlin concludes that it wants to destroy Russia; if the West offers concessions, the Kremlin concludes that it is weak and pressure should be increased."

Strategically this is similar to Napoleon's subjugation of Spain. Really a poison pill to swallow as he spent a lot of manpower and resources chasing rebels. All under the false assumption that the locals would ever support a foreign occupier. Some would argue that the attrition of quality troops hurt him in later campaigns until he squandered everything with his push to Moscow. Hoping Putin has nowhere the same lifespan but even if he takes over Ukraine I believe it's just another stepping stone to a Russian collapse.

Ukrainian soldier gives the Ruskies a little pep talk. I like the cut of his jib.

He never said he was flying back from Hawaii either. #SurlyOligarch

Voted hell no but wish there was another option for financial/weapon support but no boots on the ground. As much as I'm loving the Ukrainians right now they were not part of NATO. We need to make the current conflict as painful to Putin right now and work to discredit him for every atrocity committed. If he drops one round on any NATO country then it's lit and time to skullfuck that asshole.

Putin getting more popular every day

Did not expect Putin to kick off his day 1 presser by describing it as "desperate measures". I'm guessing that he is trying to imply that he was forced into this but still not a good look for his billionaire buddies. Anyone with good Russian skills that can confirm that translation is accurate?

Don't fuck with my cossack brethren!

Then Dimitri, Boris and I wait until nightfall then we leap out of the KamAz taking them completely by surprise! Ummm...who leaps out? We could build a large wooden BM30 Smerch...

Hmmm....good be an important step for getting our hypersonic missiles functional.

Exactly. I know he's an excellent manipulator that has been able to pick easy battles. While this one should be "easy" (it sickens me to say that) but appears to be strategically suicidal. Just worried that the combination of age and years of absolute power is clouding his judgement.

As much as I wish I could have a personal meeting with me, Putin, a baseball bat, and 2 minutes to channel my inner BearJew I'm trying to calm down and think objectively about Putin's strategic objective. I somewhat understand his dinosaur view of reclaiming the former Soviet republics and the imagined slights of being a fading empire. My big question is why now? Why the rush? Why the shift from their proxy attacks to an actual physical engagement? Ukrainian leadership was floundering and the drift to democracy was no where close to being a successful demonstration of Western values. There was no big swing in dissatisfaction for the general Russian populace. His approval ratings were still fairly high and any immediate threats like Navalny appeared to have been neutered. Financially they may have had some struggles but they had succeeded in stockpiling reserves for exactly this type of dramatic full scale war. Why not wait for the NS2 to finish and get the Germans even more comfortable suckling on that Russian teat? He's turning 70 so I don't know if he is hitting that stage in live where he is thinking about that legacy bucket list. Where he sees himself as a savior for restoring some of that Soviet glory before he figures out a final succession plan. It does not make any sense to be so bold at this point. All it does is make them a pariah and unifies the EU (and most of the world) against them. They will be stuck with a lengthy and costly occupation for a piece of territory that does not have significant economic or strategic value. It seems that they had better chance of following their subterfuge tactics to discredit Zelensky, getting someone more pro-Russian elected and then continuing to work on splintering the EU/NATO support. For someone who has been very savvy it seems a bit irrational and some clear miscalculation of the political blowback. Just concerned what his actions will be as he continues to paint himself into this corner.

Yeah we are going to see the true extent of Putin's ambition. How much clay is he going to claim once the dust settles is the big question.

We should be offering memberships like Columbia House music memberships. Sign up now and the first 13 missles are 1 cent each!

It's not really that. Putin is trying to paint the Ukrainians as genocidal maniacs against the Russians in the separatist. Anything to play up to the Russian general public.

Is Finland and Sweden on the hotline for NATO membership? I'm assuming that can be fast tracked as soon as the Ruskies make the invasion official. There needs to be an immediate message that Putins claim about NATO aggression is directly related his aggressive action.

Russian sympathizer getting slapped around on Ukrainian TV. https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-russian-ukrainian-lawmaker-nestor-shufrych-socked-in-the-face-on-savik-shusters-freedom-of-speech