Agreed that taking Tokmak is going to be tough. Russia knew it was going to be a key focal point and built up their defensive lines in the area.
My hopes in the spring was that UA would be able to get a breakthrough east of Tokmak, then push west flanking most of the defensive obstacles before completely securing the town. Then as UA would push south to Melitopol they would also clear the left bank of the Dniepro (this was before the dam was blown) and get pontoon bridges setup to shorten their logistic tail. They wouldn't attack Melitopol just yet, merely surround it for a long term siege. The rest of the push wasn't to necessarily get to the Azov sea but push close enough south to get the highway north out of Crimea under fire control and get the Kerch bridge in missle range. That would effectively cut them off from any supplies.
All of this to force a long winter for Putin. To make him and the rest of his leadership sweat the budgeting period heading into 2024. To keep the political momentum hitting on both sides. Threatening Crimea would be a huge blow to the Russian psyche. Plus the positive gains would keep that pro-Ukrainian support still pumping. Then in 2024 would be the big campaign to liberate the entire south.
Alas that's not to be...too much hopium on my side. Not to say that Ukraine is now losing, just that the timeline is not the same. 2023 could just be a large shaping operation with a focus on attrition. Hopefully we can get into Tokmak before year end.