dimyh

So not only did Russian fuckery end up causing 200+ merc assholes to get slagged by American firepower but resulted in a longtime rift in leadership that culminated in a giant mutiny? Thanks Muscovite assholes!

Russia continues to push forward its tech advantage.

That's good to know. Was counting on the Surl correspondent on the ground to fact check this. At least this helps to pinpoint some of the primary locations Wagner is working so we can monitor and see if they have any struggles.

Unfortunate timing of this video as it talks about Wagner and Priggy's interest to impress Putin right when the mutiny was underway. However it is a good overview of the different African nations that Wagner is currently working in. Always heard of them engaging in Africa but never visualized the full extent -- basically stretching from west to east.

And I guess the bigger question is what does Xi think about expanding his military presence in Africa? Since that friendship without limits is working out so great between him and Putin. If Xi sees Russian military projection falter then does he see it as part of a natural power vacuum that they need to fill? Russia has that history of ruthlessness but is China willing to, openly, take it to that level? They appear to be more of a systematic oppressor and not a boots 'n bullets taskforce eager to get in scraps. But it would be great to have another reason for friction between 🇨🇳 and 🇷🇺.

Putin offering Wagner mutineers the option to opt out of service is going to be toxic to the regular army. Too many stories of guys bitching about being put through the meat grinder with no leaves or minimal rotations. They are begging to get off the line and here the president is basically giving a full pardon to guys that were going to march on the capital? That would drive anybody insane.

Doubt that they are canceling contracts...it will be under new management like their McDonald's rebranding to TastyPeriod or whatever bullshit moldy burgers they were selling over there. I'm definitely curious on who will be heading it though. Only other big Wagner name I know is that evil Dave Campo look-alike, Mikhail Mizintsev who was reassigned a few months ago.

Been percolating some thoughts about what all transpired. Some of this is quite obvious but there are a few key things that I haven't seen mentioned. It is quite clear that Priggy values the power and money that comes with leading Wagner. He has seen firsthand the shit show that's happening on the frontlines. He knows the incompetence of the RAF with their leadership. The order to sign contracts with the RAF is a direct threat to his lone cash cow(*). Absolutely no way he can lose all of that power without some type of compensation. The push to Moscow is the classic Russian business negotiation tactic -- make maximal demands with as much threats as possible. He's not looking to overthrow Putin but to find the best cash out option for his military IPO. Maybe he lucks out and Putin actually sacks Shoigu and Gerasimov, possibly promoting Priggy or someone at least not a total asshole to the Wagner concept. Or in this case what actually transpired was a soft landing in Belarus. Why Belarus? Well there are not many exile options for Putin. Everything is under sanctions or under siege. Plus Belarus does provide some flexibility on Putin's terms to shut down Wagner. The decree from RAF was that any mercenaries operating in Russia or Ukraine needed to sign contracts. With Priggy operating out of Belarus there is technically no violation of running a skeleton crew of Wagner operations. He can still direct affairs in Africa, possibly provide training for the next round of Russian mobniks, and continue to consolidate his most loyal staff while the majority of Wagner crew can be sold off to the RAF. The enforcement of Russian laws can be very arbitrary but sometimes they can be quite pedantic and by setting up shop in Belarus, Priggy and Putin can sidestep some of those accusations. And if Priggy is not allowed to operate Wagner at all, then he's cashed in whatever he could into a spot adjacent to the political power structure. He now has some political clout, demonstrated by the random Russian's cheering him once he left Rostov-on-the-Don. His rants and ravings appeal to that basic Russian strongman fantasy. If he can outlast Putin from getting poisoned/ejected then he might have some wiggle room into the new administration. Especially if he can continue to have some low-level mercenary forces working from him then he may very well be the scapel that the final coup wields when they make a move against Putin. Though I have to wonder how thrilled Lukashenko is with volunteering to be the Airbnb for this guy. Never trust a scorpion. * Does anyone know if Priggy still has the food contracts with the RAF? That is where he made his big cash, moving up from the restaurant biz and finding a way to siphon that govt cheddar.

I've been saying this for months but I hope to live long enough to get a chance to hear all the posthumous stories of the infighting with Putin and his subordinates. The Priggy vs the army leadership has been squabbling for a good year. The inability of Putin to recognize any of that and to take decisive actions is telling. The deal made today is just another obscuration that does not provide any immediate clarity. Before drawing any strong conclusions I would wait to see on a couple of points: 1) What happens to the MoD or the CoS? If either Shoigu or Gerasimov are demoted then that at least shows the main thrust of Prigozhin's complaints were answered. Which still leaves the unanswered question why Putin took so long to finally purge ineptitude from his staff. 2) What happens to the overseas Wagner bases? Are they still operating as Wagner underneath Prighozin? Do they get rebranded and operate under new management but still separate from Russia's regular military? I think those are two areas that may give us some insight into what really transpired from today's deal. That or possibly a high velocity ejection from a Belarusian window for Priggy.

Yeah if there are any UA SOFs operating along M4 right now they need to do their best to stir up shit with the coup convoy. Anything to provoke Priggy.

It may just be a bunch of hopium but revolutionary zeal can light many fires. This might be the perfect time for Belarus to rise up and finally dump Lukashenko.

So can Putin put up some kind of fight? This is like watching Aggies vs Sooners and rooting for a tornado to land. I'm much more concerned with Priggy's military capabilities than Putin's. We really need some damage dished out on both sides and also eat up some time so that UA can recover as much territory before whichever successor emerges.

Putin is a complete imbecile. To not see this coming, which has been brewing for months, is mind blowingly idiotic. To allow Wagner to withdraw and regroup after Bakhmut without some defensive contingencies is stupifying. To not even have reliable FSB agents within Wagner to help Putin monitor their overall movements is stunning considering his background. Even Mack Brown had enough common sense to shove Greg Davis out the door when he realized that the results were not there. I don't see how Putin can see Shoigu as capable during all of this and continue to support him while also being blissfully ignorant of Prigozhin's rants. If Putin knew that he would have been sticking with Shoigu through thick and thin, then he should have also been planning a way to retire Prigozhin. If not something drastic like an assassination or imprisonment then possibly something more subtle such as reassinging to Africa or Syria to provide "security". Anything to get him away from the front lines in Ukraine and away from the bulk of Wagner troops. Without him functioning as the cult of personality then Wagner is not going to be the same security threat...no one else has demonstrated the crazy cajones to stand up to Russian leadership like this.

Voronezh is about 7 hours away from Rostov-on-the-don using the M4 road (assuming they move as fast as cars and have enough dimes for all the tolls). I'm guessing that Shoigu/Gerasimov will try to pull together a blocking unit to hinder any rapid advancement. Voronezh is about 6 hours from Moscow so it is almost directly the midpoint to Moscow. Putin absolutely has to avoid any type of rebel force accumulating in the Moscow outskirts otherwise any last shred of credibility with the populace will be stripped away on the Kremlin's doorsteps. Are there any other type of logistic hubs/airfields/etc that may be useful to Mr. Priggy? I'm also assuming that he has preparing at least for some of these once he got the orders to leave Bakhmut. They have had a little bit of time to regroup and refit, especially once MoD made the announcement about the July deadline. Not sure how long they can hold out with current supplies but I'm also sure they can manage to liberate a few supplies, toilets and toiletries to keep them in the lifestyle that they are used to.

"Without a Tsar, Russia is a widow and the Russian people are orphans." - Old Russian proverb We will see if this mirrors any of the Time of Troubles which had an abrupt absence in leadership. The son of Ivan the Terrible, Tsar Fyodor, died before producing an heir and the next in line would have been his half-brother, Prince Dmitri, but who was mysteriously slain years earlier as a young child. Dmitri was found dead, throat slit, at the tender age of nine. Dmitri's mother accused Boris Godunov of the dastardly murder but Boris simply claimed that the young boy must have been epileptic and fell tragically on his own knife. The Russian habit of mysterious deaths has apparently been a cherished tradition, passed on generation-to-generation... Anyways, Boris had the fortune, or possibly the incredible foresight, to be elected next Tsar. However he managed to make his own fate, he could not also strong-arm Fortune. Russia succumbed to many famines and plagues. As unrest grew so did the rise of the False Dmitris, all claiming to be the long lost half-brother and the legitimate owner of the throne. These pretenders would rise up along the borderlands, supported by Poles or Cossacks or any manner of disenfranchised that they would encounter along the way towards to Moscow. Frequently local garrisons that were nominally obligated to halt the long revolutionary marches would instead join the pretenders. Needless to say there were many years of turmoil and many changes in leadership. Now the present situation is not in any way based upon royal bloodlines or distant claims to hereditary rule. However the underlying dilemma of legitimacy is very similar. Plus Mr. Priggy faces the same general strategy, march to Moscow to make a change. Who is going to let him pass? Who will join his side? It is all quite incredible and I know one thing --- I will certainly be grabbing Ye Olde Bucket of Popcorn for the next few days.

Oh boy, I actually go to the office for once and then all hell breaks loose. If that's all it takes then I'll be RTO all next week.

So marriage counseling could have prevented all of this?

I'd punch everyone of you dipshits right now for a cheeseburger. Procedure is tomorrow so I've been fasting all day, slamming these pills and reliving Harry's finest moments:

Was everyone in a shart free zone with their first post-procedure meal? Or did you need to be within 20 steps of a toilet? What was your first meal of choice after getting probed?

So I finally reached that pinnacle in life where I need that backdoor plumbing checked out. Obviously I've never gone through this nor experimented with the NowThis lifestyle. So asking the rest of you old timers what to expect and any tips to not become the monthly centerfold for the shart thread.

Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. -- General Bueller

A nice video with some satellite images of various Russian trench lines. Gives you a better idea of all the little ratholes that the Ukes will have to clear out.

Amen brother. I know I'm smoking a big fat bowl of hopium waiting for some bg updates. But I understand my biases and try to be patient with getting reports from credible sources before getting too high or low. At least my work has been crazy this week so I haven't been refreshing tabs quite as much. Hopefully Ukrainian biolabs are working OT to create more killer sharks. Sharks with frickin lasers!!

Estimates of the Russian defensive positions in the south. Should give a good perspective on the number of defensive lines to cross just to get to Tokmak. We will see how committed the Ruskies are if the counter offensive starts making breakthroughs and gains some momentum.