dimyh

I'm guessing we are still 2 to 3 weeks from the full fledged counter offensive. Weather in Zaporizhia is expected to be wet and/or overcast for next week or so. Until then this is going to be the longest halftime show ever. It's been painfully obvious that UA wasn't going to make any big moves until spring. As for the counter offensive targets...I'm still guessing that the push south has the highest probability. Crimea is the crown jewel for Putin and any threat to that part of his legacy will have major ramifications. Not sure of the exact path but alot of speculation is that UA would target Tokmak since it's the end part of the rail line from mainland Russia into the region. Take Tokmak, surround Melitopol, push hard along the eastern part of the Dniepro, rebuild some bridging to shorten UA's logistic tail from Kherson, and push down to the Crimean peninsula. At that point you have Melitopol and Crimea almost on complete lock down (1 Kerch bridge kaboom away from a total siege). At that point not sure how hard it wants to engage in urban combat in Melitopol and/or make that jump into Crimea proper. Getting stuck in the Perekop isthmus could be a real bottleneck if RU dedicates artillery and aerial assets to the area and making it a killzone. So I'm guessing that UA may try to siege out those areas, wear down material and morale before going full bore in those areas. If Putin is seeing the rest of his land grab slipping away thru Q3 then I think he's in a maximum shit sandwich. Economic numbers will start looming large and has to be aware of the consequences if that runs into 2024. It's estimated that they have already blown thru 80% of their budgeted 2023 expenditures just thru Q1. One of Putin's purported strategic advantages has been counting on the miserability of his people being able to keep eating this shit sandwich than the West. If they are on their heels going into Q3 then I think there will be a lot more cracks showing. Here's to hoping that UA takes the ball and goes on a 9-play 80-yard TD drive with a methodical dissection of the Russian defense to start this 2nd half.

More reports about the Wagner butchers. Not exactly sure why they would admit to this but ex mercs explaining orders to terminate everyone...civilians, women, teenagers, and even 5 year old girls. Just fucking brutal.

What's the payout if I wear a hot dog suit and mack on the ladies at the same time?

Adding to the media/business hijinks out there. Guy is reporting that Patreon is shutting down pro Ukraine accounts but leaving up pro Russian accounts. I can follow arguments for running a business with an apolitical viewpoint but not when they are clearly being biased with their enforcement.

Looking ahead to a separate thread for @Brisketexan plan to invade Finland, I mean Marin, for all the lulz. We will see if he can outdo Putin's offensive and conquer more territory. My guess is that both will become two of the most sanctioned men on the planet.

Sometimes in these complicated geopolitical energy export cases you have to use Occam's Razor to sift through all the details to get to the truth.... It's because they are a bunch of dipshits.

I am 100% in support of Ukraine and I have no qualms in describing this as a proxy war. Whether it is described as a war or proxy war is immaterial. Russian propaganda is going to spout out whatever bullshit it can but that does not change the fact they are the aggressors in this matter. Morally, politically, economically...whichever way you look at they are in the wrong for invading an independent nation. Kremlin has even come out stating that they are at war with the west, that we are gay satanic witches which are corrupting their pure and innocent Russian values. Putin is the one trying to reconstitute Tsarist/Soviet glory by directly annexing neighbors. So the sooner people realize that we are in fact in a proxy war then that might help us realize how serious this entire conflict is. Because some people are still behaving that all we have to do is agree to a peace/cease fire and everything will return back to normal. No more sanctions. No more animosity. Bullshit. Win, lose or draw the Russian leadership is going to continue to spew anti-West propaganda to deflect blame. It is going to be a new Cold War 2.0. What matters is how serious of a threat Russia will be going forward. Supporting Ukraine now puts us in a better position once this chapter of the "war" ends.

Shocked. Shocked I say! Looks like the only sure fire way to instigate a revolt is to HIMARS all of their booze.

"Paid? Well let me see...I have no idea of what that means. I know what you think it means sonny. To me its just a made up word. A politician's word, so young Surlies like yourself can wear a t-shirt and flipflops and have a job. What do you really want to know? Am I sorry for what I did? There is not a day goes by that I don't feel regret. Not because I'm in here but because you think I should. I look back at the ways I was back then...a young stupid kid who submitted that terrible bracket. I want to talk to him. Try to talk some sense into him. Tell him the way things are...but I can't. That kid is long gone and this old man is all that is left. I have to live with that. Paid is just a bullshit word. So you go ahead and stamp your forms sonny and stop wasting my time."

New Texas driving motto: You miss 100% of the shots that you don't take. Guys know what it takes to be #1!

More dissent from the mobniks, ready to take a taxi home.

A neo-nazi POS. Part of Russian Volunteer Corp which is comprised of Russian nationalists who want to overthrew Putin because of his imperialism. Why against imperialism? Because holding foreign territories is just another way for "multi-nationalist cuckoldry". These assholes want an ethnically pure Russia which does not mix with the other non-white cultures. So great if they can kill Putin...not so great if they actually take over.

Attacking thru the Alps?? I think Solovyov is a bit salty about losing his Italian villas.

On another board there was an ex US artilleryman who would give breakdowns at the beginning of the war about usage. I did not know either about the different arming fuzes used. https://dbpedia.org/page/Artillery_fuze Or the that the wear on barrel would lead to gradual inaccuracy and eventually to complete failure. He pointed out how sloppy the Russians were based upon videos of their artillery. They would have munitions prefuzed and scattered about which explains why they having so many smoking accidents. Thank goodness they are so stupid.

Everytime I see that pic I think it's a publicity poster for another Hollywood remake: Throw Karen From The Train.

And this highlights another very important reason for why Russia can't "win" this war. 1) It legitimizes bigger countries attacking weaker neighbors just because it is part of their "sphere of influence" or "national security threat" or whatever fabricated claim they can cobble together. 2) It normalizes the use of nuclear force for offensive capabilities. Instead of strictly being a defensive deterrence, nukes would now be threatened to deter all types of resistance. 3) Which leads to the inevitable conclusion that normal defensive pacts with conventional forces will never be sufficient. Nuclear proliferation is the only means to maintain national sovereignty. I already have enough anxiety with one N Korea in the world. I really dread what it would be like with about a dozen more springing up across the globe.

In case anyone bitches about the amount aid going to Ukraine. Excellent breakdown in comparison to other wars. WW2 comparisons are not very apt but comparisons with Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, and Korea are very telling.

Oh, I've only seen pics of that chili but I'm assuming her enchiladas would be any different. Both would inflict intense intestinal distress. Jade's cooking = Putin's war planning.

For a second there I thought those were snapshots of Jade's enchiladas.

Medusa article about Navalny clarifying his position about this SMO. Changes some of his previous statements that Crimea is Russian. Now, it very clearly belongs to Ukraine. Also talks about paying reparations to them. Overall an excellent strongly worded letter to management. https://meduza.io/feature/2023/02/20/aleksey-navalnyy-opublikoval-15-printsipov-svoey-politicheskoy-platformy-o-voyne-i-poslevoennom-ustroystve-rossii

So with the anniversary coming up and Putin planning a big speech it is going to be interesting what the stated strategy is for 2023. Russia's advantages are 1) holding current territory 2) ruthlessness 3) bodies and 4) ability to withstand a ton of shit. On that last point, Putin is calculating (or more accurately hoping) that the average Russian is more willing to suffer thru sanctions than the West is able to stick to them. However the rumors that he wants some decisive victories in next month or so, talks about getting the RU airforce more involved indicates the desire to see an early win. Which undercuts one of his supposed advantages. So it will be interesting to see if he commits to an all-out offensive or continues with the long term meat grinder approach.