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dimyh

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Everything posted by dimyh

  1. I don't trust the aircraft losses reported by Ukraine. Those numbers have always looked grossly inflated. There were some artillery attacks on airfields (Crimea and the one in Chornobaivka which liked to get pounded in the ass more than a NowThis wet dream) which can account for some of those losses but having +500 losses for all air assets seems extremely optimistic. Not that RU airforce hasn't been MIA for quite some time and has been probably the biggest surprise in those whole war. I've just chalked it up to Russia finally realizing that the risk/reward was not worth it once Ukraine started beefing up anti-air capabilities.
  2. Is Lavrov the worst ambassador since this guy?
  3. What you said but more concise and much hotter. I would click your avatar button if it showed her naked.
  4. I hear people concerned that Putin's replacement could be much worse. A more competent hardliner. I don't see it though. Whomever steps in is going to be dealing with the exact same problems: crumbling military, cratering economy, an ugly war that hard liners may want to continue but that no one wants to fight. Whatever happens they will have to take an operational pause to reform the military, realign their production before they can even commit to another war. During that time is when the economic free fall takes place. Actually I'd rather have a hardliner follow up Putin than someone pro-west since whomever follows up is going to get blamed for a lot of the results of Putin's actions.
  5. gotdamn this thread has been blazing fast the past few days. Just adding on to Brisket's poker analogy about escalation. USA is not escalating; we are just cold calling. It's like a NL tourney with Ukraine on the BB with a short stack, USA UTG limps in, a few other callers and Russia OTB sees the opportunity to squeeze the little guy and steal the pot. Ukraine has some cards and reraises. USA is just slick cold-calling 3bets the whole way. USA flops the nuts and checks down. Russia is still fixated on Ukraine and trying to get them all-in based on a weak draw and not noticing that USA is straight calling down the whole way even though they've got 10x the chips. Next thing he knows he's pot committed on the turn and the desperate realization that even if he hits his miracle card he's probably toast. All the while Ukraine knows its probably beating Russia and even if it does lose out, USA has already told them they are bankrolling them for the rest of their Vegas trip.
  6. Also in case any vatnik trollbot starts standing on their moral high ground and proclaims USA is a complete monster for using nukes then consider this: Nagasaki - pop size 195k. Est casualties 40k-75k Mariupol - pop size 450k. Est casualties 20k-100k. Also includes estimates that around 90% of all buildings have been destroyed or damaged. The entire city has been practically razed from the earth. While still too early to get any reliable numbers this has the potential to match or even exceed a nuclear bomb. And this was not just one attack from over 77 years ago but a sustained attack just a few months ago. So who really is the monster?
  7. Appreciate the posts even though we do not draw the same conclusions. I believe you are presenting your own concerns in a reasonable manner and not merely spouting vatnik propaganda points. It is perfectly understandable to be concerned about being vaporized over a war half the globe over but not taking a stand right now has its own repercussions. From the start I always believed Putin had committed strategic suicide the moment he sent troops across the border. The fact that he could secure a short-term victory still meant a long-time loss as we would resurrect the ghost of USSR only to have it slowly die away due to economic strangulation. Ending the war now with a few territorial concessions still has the West winning long-term, maybe 40 years out, with a neo glasnost undoing everything Putin is ranting about. However by not taking the additional risk and trying to end it right now has some significant consequences: Normalizes nuclear threats for offensive gains - if that becomes the norm then any nuclear nation can just wave around their arsenal to meet their demands. Nuclear proliferation - since nukes can be used with offensive threats then the only defense is having your own. Which means many smaller/less stable nation states will be loading up. I'm not looking forward to international nuclear Mexican standoffs between all the regional crazies. No longer deters land grabs - if Putin can get away with annexing clay with brute force then that opens up that opportunity for others sharing the same mindset. Continues propaganda machine - the most brainwashed in Russia are the older generation, still watching TV and still sipping that old Soviet nostalgia juice. The younger generation has lived without that legacy and is not as averse to Western culture. Adding another younger generation, immersed in more anti-West propaganda over their formative years is going to dilute the ones needed to make a long-term cultural change. Because it needs to be understood: the West is not trying to destroy Russian culture...we just want to stop the imperialistic ultra-nationalist ideals that says that they can bludgeon their neighbors anytime they want. While my initial idea was that by waiting it out and not joining the conflict directly we could achieve the same end goal by re-enacting a mini cold war. However we could strive for a more decisive win. We may not have a better opportunity of poor military performance, pathetic leadership vs a unified multi-national response featuring a defensive target valiantly fighting for their survival. The actions from this conflict are going to redefine the world order in ways we have not seen since the end of WWII.
  8. So I'm still intrigued about the pipeline sabotage. Here is a clip that goes into some more detail, including some reasons for Russia to scuttle their own stuff. Avoid contract penalties due to a force majeur reasoning. Not sure how much they would save if that stood up in court. Not sure what else we could do even if we were able to positively identify RF/Gazprom as the saboteurs. We're running out of sanctions that we can throw at these assholes. Lifting technology sanctions so that RF/Gazprom could make the repairs. Which sounds absolutely fucking bonkers that anyone from the West would trust them with any repairs. Not sure how it works with a multi-national like this one but I'm guessing someone is telling Russia to back the fuck off, we got this. Possibly just to cause general instability or incite concern about the gas supply for the winter. Which is also ridiculous...nothing screams more little dick energy then threatening to take away the one thing everyone likes about you. Not because you have direct control of it but because of some "accident". It actually would make Putin look very weak. Or just your basic run-of-the-mill false flag operation. Where you are trying to point the finger at Ukraine, USA, or whatever western culprit you can imagine, in a supposed attempt to shut down any possibility of rapprochement. In any event all of those possible reasons sounds bat shit crazy if true. Not sure if Putin is showing his Chekist background and going to the only playbook he has left since his nuke brinkmanship button is worn out and broken at this point. If he is behind this then he is truly grasping at straws to figure out any type of angle he can gain. Curious to see ultimately what the investigators find out. They mentioned that the explosion could have been outside or possibly generated inside the pipe. Either way it sounds like a significant operation to pull off and something straight from a Bond movie or a Clancy novel.
  9. Russia not the only one in the referendum game. Netherlands putting together their own version declaring Russia belongs to them. Glory to King Willem-Alexander!
  10. This guy provides a nice summary of sanctions and the impact upon the Russian economy to date. His delivery is a bit dry but he does slip in a few sly jokes such as oligarchs concerned about the changes in the building codes. (Why do the windows always have to be open?)
  11. Yeah I understand being nervous but I think about the movie The Sting and the scene between Hooker and Gondorff the night before the big sting. Hooker is on edge and obviously nervous and Gondorff says: "Take it easy, you won't lose him now. We had him 10 years ago when he decided to be somebody." Putin lost this 10 years ago when he wanted to be the Soviet Union again. USSR in its prime could not outlast the economic powerhouse of the west. RF is starting in a worse economic and demographic hole and all this war did is accelerate the decline.
  12. And if you need an uplifting message watch this cheerful interview of a Russian murderer who was pardoned so he can fight as part of Wagner. The lighting and depressing tone makes it look like an Ilya Repin oil painting from the 19th century. Except it moves and has subtitles. If you didn't know any better he could of been a prisoner from the first Crimean war.
  13. Oh now she needs to tell the truth? Bitch, please. Hoping all of these propagandists get called out for their BS and get front row seats for whatever carbomb takes out Putin.
  14. Motherfuckers...
  15. Battle of the Stan's just kicked off. I don't know their backstory but looks like we have a new conflict to fire up in the old Soviet backyard.
  16. Russia still making a late push to get the #1 recruiting class in the Eastern Europe conference. Look at all of those 2* star recruits still out there! Wonder if he is showing his depth chart and selling everyone on the benefit of guaranteed playing time?
  17. I'm doubting it ever happened until Russia comes out and denies it. Then it 100% fact.
  18. Also to note: the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan last year was also seen as a sign of weakness. Either as simply militarily weakness or, at a minimum, a sign that USA's foreign policy was shifting away from overseas adventures. Just as we don't understand their willingness to go to war to annex territory, the Russians don't understand why anyone would willingly give up force in an occupied nation.
  19. Things that put up more defense than the Russian army:
  20. I suspect that if UF continues to demonstrate a high level of professionalism and keeps current operations on military only targets then those concerns are loosened. I bet the initial concern was that Ukraine would get petty and start targeting civilians, any type of soft target.
  21. Which is why I'm 1000% behind Ukraine in this conflict. As long as they are willing to fight then I'm pushing for the best terms because you never know when an adversary will be this weak or stupid again. There might not be a better opportunity to recover their territorial integrity. Plus a victory demonstrates demonstrates precisely why authoritarian regimes are so toxic. If RF was content with being a major petro state working as an European peer that would be perfectly fine. Even if there was major corruption and significant kleptokracy but kept their stink within their borders then we could stomach that arrangement. But as soon as Putin started pushing some revanchist fantasy and supported by some ethno-natonalist ideology then that is a clear threat to other nation's self-determination.
  22. Also need to add this guy to my Twitter list. I haven't gone through all of it but it looks impressive. With giant pictures that helps my little Surly brain follow along. Tons of good stuff in his feed. Just needs to add some NAFO fellas to take it to eleven.
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