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akhornfan
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Everything posted by akhornfan
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What do statements like this accomplish. Is there a number that is ‘good’ in your mind?
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Unsubstantiated
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There’s no point. He’s gone completely overboard.
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It’s not a question of if it goes down but by how much and can we test enough or do we have to estimate it to get accurate.
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Which is sort of the whole point. Screaming about inaccurate figures makes more people think that the risk doesn’t exist. It’s not helping the situation. Reasonable discussion, critical thought, actual risk assessment and prevention will be what works. Not his brand of insanity.
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You know it’s not 7% and you know the number will decrease not increase. You’re so full of shit. Just stop. You’re intentionally lying.
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One of the biggest take aways from this is going to be the logic error that so many people have been making from the beginning. We knew that testing was far behind the actual spread of infection in almost every country, with Korea being the only exception. Yet we kept talking about fatality rates while KNOWING that the number was horribly wrong. But then ignoring that and making future projections based on numbers that were obviously wrong to anyone willing to actually think about it. And now we’re acting like we’re preventing the spread of something that’s already spread. Responses are happening so far behind the real time situation.
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You can’t have this both ways. If there are anywhere near that few deaths this has been completely overblown
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Oh get the fuck out. Total bullshit. You know it’s not going to be 3.5% or anything even near that.
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get out of here with facts. Did you you read that his friend told him?
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No fucking way?!
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Why aren’t we actually seeing more real reports from people on the ground? This ‘from a colleague’ shit is helping nothing.
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Can we seriously stop posting this shit?
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My bet is that the numbers you used at the time had almost no validity. Which was the opinion I was trying to hold while being shouted down. I think the post mortem infection estimates are going to be astronomical - making the CFRs we were discussing just seem silly.
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I do everything from my phone not a computer, so no. I linked it. Are you really saying you thought a million Americans would die and we wouldn’t take some drastic measures or just starting to walk it back?
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CDC Estimates @Brisketexan CDC has numbers similar to yours as a ‘worst case’. Sticking with it?
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Haha - what?
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Mac - very common for those types of businesses to have a blended lease. A base/fixed amount + a variable % of revenue component. That could create high payments in peak periods, but obviously the % component wouldn’t kick in it the revenue doesn’t happen. Still can be catastrophic though, as I’m sure plenty of businesses were banking on that cash flow.
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Sorta I guess. Lockdown is a pretty broad term for what they’ve actually done. It does sound good though - makes it seem like a big deal.
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They usually have 5 or six what? 16% is insane, if it were something you could extrapolate. I have no idea what you’re trying to say here.
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A mortality rate similar to what?
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That twitter thread is horseshit. It’s never a verifiable first person account, instead a ‘trusted friend’. Might as well be @Junior Miller’s doctor buddy.
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@Brisketexan we’re starting to see some larger scale, but predictable, reactions. Specifically, event cancellations and public recognition. Are you sticking with your projections?
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I don’t think anyone is claiming the recovered stat is at all reliable
