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akhornfan

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Everything posted by akhornfan

  1. Why not use S Korea’s numbers. 1% hospitalization? They’re the ones doing the most testing. The cult has nothing to do with number of cases and hospitalization
  2. @Somnio I agree. I just think that right now it’s pretty clear it isn’t 2% and 20% so there’s no point in stating those calculations over and over again. The entire point of the Medium article was based on 10% - 20% hospitalization, but doesn’t say ‘if it’s only xx% then we have capacity’. I believe both sides should be presented until there’s way more data or else it’s just sensationalism.
  3. That’s not true. I’ve been crying foul on 2% CFR and 20% hospitalization all day yesterday. Even the WHO China report is still working off of their ridiculously low case totals. None of their data matches any other country we’ve seen (excluding Iran)
  4. For those predicting that the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed, where are they getting the percentage of cases that require hospitalization? The Medium article randomly predicted 20%. Again, I think this is a case of using what looks like a relatively low figure to extrapolate catastrophe, but failing to point out that if it’s just 1%, or even some lower number, that it’s relatively inconsequential. Realistically we have no idea how often as case requires hospitalization.
  5. I’m taking odds against this one too. It looks like the CDC is keeping this shit on lockdown until they’re ready to release.
  6. Is there a good source of into on the situation in S Korea? They’ve been doing so much testing and seem to be putting out reliable data
  7. They’re saying they have way more cases then the confirmed tests.
  8. Good question. @Junior Miller what’s up with that dude? He just said he heard it from someone else?
  9. Regurgitating math pointing to 15 million deaths 🙄 but meanwhile on the CA front, about the 2nd patient: The Santa Clara County Public Health Laboratory received the specimens Thursday and performed the testing. Since receiving the results last night, the department has been working to identify contacts and understand the extent of exposures. They’re holding back a ton of information. They said on the CDC call this morning that there were not any new cases. Pretty much a lie. https://apple.news/ArEwp_43PQs6j1dBE9DbolQ
  10. I don’t think you can just say that 10% is a ‘low end’ number just because. Change it to 1% and all of a sudden it’s not nearly as big of a deal. I don’t think there’s currently anything to indicate 10% versus any other number so I don’t disagree with the analysis, but the ‘low-end’ part makes it sound like it’s somehow more realistic than it is.
  11. I think we’re probably at the point where we’re not going to accurately know how many people actually become infected. Even if we trust the numbers from the Chinese, they’re obviously not testing everyone, even with Wuhan, let alone Hubei. So there are going to be untested cases that end in recovery that will never be included in the numbers. We’ll only know some number of serious cases and maybe an accurate count of deaths. The same things appears that it’s going to be true for the infections in developed countries as well. The US isn’t showing any competency in testing at all. So attempts to multiply populations x infection rate x mortality are all just wild guesses and I’d take the under on every one that I’ve seen so far.
  12. @CleverNickname what assumptions are you making to get to the .85% CFR?
  13. I find it odd that so many countries are announcing their first confirmed case, but then going silent for days. It’s like the get on the list and then just turtle.
  14. I’m starting to migrate over to the idea that everyone has it, but that it’s nowhere even near 2% deadly. Rather that’s the figure associated with the most serious cases. I wonder if S Korea is really testing as many people as they stated or that their ‘testing’ is more synonymous with the 8,400 people that California is monitoring. It appears really obvious at this point that true testing capabilities are beyond overwhelmed.
  15. CDC is still only talking about the single case at UC Davis, but said that it’s likely that this person infected others
  16. Hotels have every different type of HVAC system. Just depends on the style, size, age, etc. It’s not like there’s a uniform application.
  17. And the CDC is about to hold a press conference. Will be interesting to see if they’re holding back new US cases to release the info in a ‘controlled’ manner. Maybe @Junior Miller’s buddies mystery Arlington cases are incoming. I expect some number of new CA cases.
  18. You believe him? Would be pretty big news if true. I’m not sure that the current reports support the idea that Arlington even has testing capability.
  19. And also, did you buy all the supplies he recommended?
  20. @Junior Miller what’s going on with your goofball friend doctor and his new cases?
  21. And they said that they screwed up a test and accidentally released someone from Travis that then came back later infected.
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