Yes, correct (understanding that I'm basing that assertion on betting lines). I would note, if you read the article I linked, that some folks had Durant slight higher and worth 4-4.5 points. Below is an explanation from the site. In any event, the overarching point is that Owens is significant but no way is he worth 10 points, particularly when the O/U is 118, which is well well below most NBA games.
I have Durant worth four to 4.5 points to the point spread and Dave Mason from BetOnline told me he has Durant valued at 3.5 to four points.
When our OddsShark numbers came back, we found those numbers made sense. Here are the average OKC point spreads with Durant in and out of the lineup over the past two seasons:
OUT: -1.54
IN: -5.88 (missed 65 games)
So we’re looking at around a tangible 4.5 points to the spread. Even with the bigger numbers OKC proved to be a better bet with KD on the court.
With Durant out of the lineup the last two seasons, the Thunder were 30-35 SU (straight up), 29-35-1 ATS (against the spread) and 33-29-3 OVER/UNDER (he missed 55 games in the 2014-15 season with injury). Just this past season he only missed 10 games and the Thunder were 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS and 5-5 OVER/UNDER.
With Durant in the lineup over the last two seasons, the Thunder were 81-36 SU, 56-57-4 ATS and 54-63 OVER/UNDER. That still didn’t make them a profitable bet but they were 49.5 percent against the spread with Durant in the lineup compared to 46.1 percent with him sidelined.
What’s intriguing is that the totals seem to be a little inflated with Durant in the lineup. The UNDER hit at 53.8 percent with Durant in the lineup compared to 46.7 percent with him out.
Might be something to watch next year along with inflated lines. I don’t think Durant can still be worth four or 4.5 points to the spread with all the talent running around for the Warriors.
I do think the recreational bettor is going to be uncomfortable betting against the Warriors though so there may be some value in the early going. We’ll see.