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bullzak

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Everything posted by bullzak

  1. Investment management. Year over year comps still decent. Latter half won't be great. All of this illustrates difference between haves and have nots. If you are working in an office you can social distance and possibly preserve your income. If you do real work for a living you suffer healthwise and financially. Man those people are really hurting.
  2. S&P down 1% YOY for this date. Crazy. I am long but not feeling super comfortable about it. The numbers will be horrific. But fighting the Fed has never been a winner either. I could see us bouncing around in a wide range the rest of the year. 2400-2800 something like that. Good opportunities if you are a trader and can stomach that.
  3. I rode the El daily in Chicago until Mid March. Think about being within 3 feet of at least 100 different people a day every day. Same for everyone else. Even more in New York. How about airplanes? Either way more people have this than anyone imagines, or its not nearly as contagious as we thought. Gotta be one of those two. Used to think the exposure was 10x what we knew. Might be 50x. Antibody testing is the first door out of here. Treatment is door number 2.
  4. As far as timing of the shutdown remember that the NBA, which probably has 250,000 points of contact on a given night, only shut down on March 11. If the country had tried to shut down in early Feb because 100 people died of a cough people would have lost their minds, and more importantly blown off the later more factually supported shutdown. And this isn't like Chernobyl. Those bastards knew after decades of research that radiation was deadly. They didn't give a shit. We didn't know enough about this and had to learn some really hard lessons.
  5. If the Remdesivir news of today holds up that's a game changer big time. Probably not a magic bullet but those results seem very promising. Medical science will have to save our ass. Again.
  6. For those who think things will never be the same, what if you knew that within 6 months there would be both widespread antibody testing and effective treatment for severe cases? I think antibody testing for sure, and feel that plasma or some offshoot has huge potential. An uneducated guess that we will be 75% there by October latest. Vaccine by summer 2021. If you consider that possibility your outlook gets brighter, yes? I think the worst has passed but the recovery will be much slower than anyone wants. That said, no sports or concerts in 2020 in any event. Beer and high fives at Wrigley next summer. No masks.
  7. At Rush in Chicago they are looking at having people lie on their stomachs for 16 hours with oxygen as an alternative to vents. Kinda interesting old school stuff. Hope it works. Certainly the vent hasn't been a magic bullet.
  8. Looking at IHME model for Illinois, in last week it has gone from 3800 deaths to 777 projected by Aug. Peak from 4/16 to 4/8. Amazingly low considering density and size of Chicago. Guess they shut things down here just in time.
  9. If there is a treatment where I won't die or have any real chance at lasting damage, I will be watching games at Wrigley Field in a month. Absent that, no large gatherings happening. Lots of promise out there, and it seems like antibody/plasma could work, but scaling that is going to take a while. Forget MLB and NBA. I think football on hold unless we have some major medical development by Fourth of July. Opening up and then going back to wide scale shutdowns is a disaster. Cant happen.
  10. Velocity of money was at a historic low as of February by orders of magnitude. Going to be even lower now. Inflation isn't the immediate problem. Fed/Treasury/Congress going to bridge the 20%+ GDP bite with debt. There will be significant strings attached re: stock buybacks. Dividends will be slashed. That caps values in at least intermediate term. We may indeed see a retest. The economy is a mess. But you have never ever seen this kind of stimulus this fast and it may signal this time is different, at least with respect to how close we get to the retest. I see a lot of waiting for the bottom talk. Good luck with market timing. Never known anyone who could do it. Now, if you get a medical solution where people aren't dying all bets are off. That is a non zero possibility.
  11. ChiTown thanks again for everything you do and for providing a sober voice from the front lines on this. It seems to be that antibodies/convalescent plasma treatment is a reasonable way forward here. Know JH and Mayo are all over that. Are you guys seeing anything on that re: results and timing? Oh, and you know, OU still sucks.
  12. Hey ChiTown hope you test positive. Not used to saying that.
  13. Chitown, what are you hearing about expectations here in Chicago over the next couple? Are you guys anticipating a NY type overrun? Seems like they expect a peak around mid-April, but so far reported numbers seem muted. Also what is time to really do big rollout of antibody tests? Figure you get a million people off the couch because of immunity we start mitigating economic damage. This is our best hope short term. And thanks a ton to you and everyone else in the front lines on this thing.
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