I’m of the opinion that Texas only gets left out if there are 4 undefeated teams. Undefeated Big Ten champ, UGA, Washington, and FSU is the only way we don’t make it in as Big 12 champs. The committee likes easy solutions. 4 undefeated champions is an easy solution.
If Bama or Oregon wins I don’t see us getting left out now that we have head to head and better win over common opponent. These CCG are defacto playoff play-in games, the losers will not be considered if there are enough 0-1 loss champs to seed.
If Bama and Oregon win I see the PAC12 getting the same treatment as the Big 12 did back when Ohio State jumped Baylor/TCU. You’d have undefeated Big Ten champ, FSU, Texas, Bama with Oregon out as #5 (what a dream draw).
Texas and Bama played OOC, if you leave out Texas you’re telling teams that winning a huge OOC game gets you no credit and if you leave out Bama you’re punishing them for losing a big OOC game. The easy answer is to include BOTH and leave out the team whose best OOC win was against tech.
The PAC12 was/is overrated. Their best P5 OOC wins all came against 6-6 tech or a 6-5 Wisconsin, and their 3rd best team Arizona lost to Mississippi State who isn’t even going bowling. Those early season PAC12 wins against Michigan St, TCU, Nebraska, Florida, and Baylor were fool’s gold. I think this is the easiest out for the committee, PLUS who the fuck is going to care about the PAC12 after this year anyways? A dead conference can’t really rock the boat going forward.
Plus as always I go back to brands value. Oregon is the lesser brands of the group (like Baylor/TCU were a decade ago) so backing into a playoff that has Texas in a playoff with the SEC champ and B1G champ is too tempting to TV.
They could screw FSU out of a spot, but I have a hard time seeing them get dropped if the survive the next 8 days unscathed. But again TV$ may win out over justice/ethics this case.