TKthunder2

After looking this over, the Thanksgiving rivalry weekend games for the Western SEC schools would have to be: Texas/Arkansas, LSU/aggy, Oklahoma/Mizzou

First line: “Nick Saban has never been accused of backing down from a challenge.” Then follows an entire article about why Nick Saban is backing down from a challenge.

I agree, the soccer super league will happen, a breakaway elite college football league will happen. Listening to Baylor fans cry about the loss of regional cfb when they left the very regional SWC is gold. Most people would not care if Purdue, Mississippi State, Northwestern, or Vanderbilt got left out they care that their “region” is represented which means you just can’t also cut out Indiana/Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Tennessee (which is why you could see some wonky things like how Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, and Kansas could make it in while other more athletically deserving Big 12 schools don’t). I agree with all his points except basketball. We have DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO leagues separated out for a reason. Basketball will split at some point too as we don’t need 400 teams in DI. Even if you just took the FBS conferences, you could kick that number down to 130 plus the top 5 nonFB conferences Big East/A10/WCC and go back to a 64 team bracket. If the elite college football league can run its own basketball tournament and make more money it will (I think the obvious answer here is yes). The only question is do you include anyone else, and if so how many and who.

Nothing major, but the way I’ve heard it is that Texas politicians lobbied hard under the guise of we had to protect Texas Tech since it was a public university. Once that point was agreed to and Tech was #11 everyone knew they’d need to add #12. The Big 8 schools threw out BYU as an option to help curb the influence of the State of Texas but Baylor was always the one being pushed by the politicians and they weren’t going to be left out. BYU never really had a chance.

Will cigarettes, alcohol, porn exist in 50 years? The answer is clearly yes. The NFL is the most watched content in the US that will take significant time to diminish. We have 100k+ seat stadiums In college and major high school stadiums that are bigger than some colleges. This is a cash cow for the NFL/P5 programs and they won’t let it go quietly into the night. The rules will change. The game might look a bit different but CTE isn’t going to kill the game. The lack of kids participating is the real threat and in high school football that doesn’t seem to be a problem currently. If you start seeing a bunch of highly populated high schools canceling their football program and associated programs like marching band/drill team and switching homecoming to basketball games then I’d be worried. For now they’ve just started 2 additional professional football leagues again so I don’t think it’s at risk currently.

Agree on diminishing brands which is why I think there will be a big fight over UNC. They bring basically every the SEC/Big Ten could ask for in a program except they are NOT a blueblood or even near blueblood in football (UVA too but not to the same level as UNC). You need your powerhouse football teams to play each other enough to keep TV schedules and home football schedules interesting, but not SO much where (to use your example) Ohio State is over exposed to every major power in the conference every year. As much fun as it would be to see Ohio State’s schedule fill up with Michigan, MSU, Pedo, USC, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Miami each year, it would be bad for the conference overall and long term. That’s why, I see more realignment coming. Schools will take a hit on the money to invite Stanford or UVA because you need those opponents that can fill up your wins column in football but also contribute with their markets/fan base size, basketball, non fb/bb athletic programs, and yes even academics (presidents would rather give up some money to be in a club with UVA than they would with Louisville or Boise St). That being said, the demographics of the South are booming and the Midwest not so much. Getting the Big Ten into Virginia, North Carolina, and major Big Ten alumni cities like Atlanta and Miami would be a giant win for a Rust Belt conference. This is the next big realignment fight. The SEC made it clear that they have no real interest in the PAC12 or any Big 12 leftovers as a standalone addition (I could see a school like Kansas or West Virginia get added to round out the numbers like they did with South Carolina and Mizzou in the previous rounds) so they will be focused on the ACC almost exclusively. The Big Ten knows it can take any PAC12 school now and basically any time. If they lose out on UVA/UNC then they grab Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and maybe even some 4 corner schools to build up their numbers, but their is no reason to do it now. Wait and see how the ACC schools shake out then make a move.

ACC (along with USF) when FSU and Miami leave for the Big Ten or SEC.

You’re correct. No school outside of Notre Dame will drive higher payouts under the current system. But I think you are missing a key point of expansion. It’s one part market protection. FSU/Miami/GT/Clemson mean far more to the Big Ten and their long term vision (especially when you review population demographic projections over the next few decades), than they do for the SEC. In 50 years having a long term investment in the Southern states will pay dividends, but it may not pay out immediately. The SEC might expand simply to prevent the Big Ten from gaining a foothold. Even if it slightly lowered the payout. Also, the long term vision for college sports will not stay as is. The more brands you can consolidate into the SEC/B1G the easier the transition to that long term plan will be. Leaving out major states like Washington/North Carolina or major brands like Oregon/Clemson also would go over well nationally. The top basketball brands like Kansas and UNC will make it (maybe not Duke but that’s a discussion for another day), but secondary brands like UConn/Louisville might not. But knowing that the conference will eventually get bigger makes this almost like a game of chicken. The SEC and Big Ten both have an invested stake in the Southeast Atlantic states and that will play out before 2040 it’s just a matter of timing at this point because if you think that the CFP and NCAA tournament will still resemble their current setup after the SEC/B1G have 48 or so members in them then I don’t know what to tell you.

Ha, that works too, but I was going for…

The big difference is that the ACC has numbers (14/15 w/ ND) and a bunch of options that are or have been in the Big6/P5 club. That’s something the PAC12 didn’t have which is why they are having to reach into Texas. Say worse case scenario they lose FSU, Clemson, NCSU, VT to the SEC and Miami, GT, UNC, UVA and NDnonfb to the Big Ten they could still have the below teams that would be more respectable in the view of college administrators/fans WVU, Cincy, UConn, Memphis, UCF, USF, Temple, Tulane and maybe even Army/Navy to go along with WF, Duke, Lville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC. That’s basically the old Big East sans Miami/VT plus Duke/WF and a few call ups and it would be enough to keep them afloat and likely keeps them in line with (or slightly behind) the Big 12 but well ahead of the PAC12.

I noticed you forgot about UH, and most people do…so…

True but imo Whataburger’s bigger issue is they still haven't figured out how to expo online orders. Multiple times I’ll pull into curbside and checkin then see a car go through the drive thru and have their food and be driving off before they deliver mine. Works the same way if you pickup inside too. People who order after I check in end up with their food before they bring out mine. This happens at multiple locations as well. This shows that this is a problem with their ordering system, which likely hasn’t been updated to optimize online orders, which should be a major focus for them…I hope.

Maybe Florida State University will be closing its doors and selling its likeness and facilities to a completely unrelated entity called University of the State of Florida of Tallahassee. Check…and…mate…ACC/ESPN Joking not joking…losing out on $400 million dollars over the next decade might trigger some extreme solutions.

Go down to town lake animal shelter and tell me how many non pit/pit mixes you see. I took my kids down there to get a dog (like I did just after college) and the overwhelming majority of dogs had pit in them. I was told by the employees that they didn’t have any dogs that they would feel comfortable introducing to children on site. I’m a huge animal lover but we seriously need to stop treating pit bulls like they are in the same category as poodles or labs.

Until we get robots cooking the food this will happen but currently you have 2 points of failure, the person typing in your order and the person reading it, with the kiosk/app your removing one point of failure and which should increase accuracy.

Yep, timing is not on FSU’s side.

Since COVID year FSU/Clemson account for 11 of the top 17 games in the ACC. UNC accounts for 4, ND/Pitt/NCSU/WF 2, Miami/Syracuse/GT 1. You take FSU/Clemson/UNC out of the ACC and put them in the SEC those brands would add to the already dominant SEC ratings. Right now those teams get ratings while playing NCSU/Syracuse/WF/GT. Now image how good those rating would be against the SEC…well you don’t have to because the top 4 ACC rated games were against SEC teams and SEC/ACC games account for 7 of the top 17. Gives FSU/Clemson/UNC an SEC schedule and they’d have even more games with major ratings. ACC isn’t top tier content. SEC is. If ESPN can make their investment in the SEC now and prevent opening the door for their favorite ACC brands to join the Big Ten I think they would push for it. With FOX owning the BTN and ESPN owning the SECN long term success of these conferences, means far more than their second tier investments. Still the ACC would need to get something out of this. Giving the ACC a new contract to give them more per school than they currently get, which while still behind the SEC/B1G, will keep them up with the B12 and not put them in an embarrassing situation like we’re seeing with the P12. New contract in exchange for releasing the teams the SEC/ESPN desire and getting a fat exit fee might be enough.

You and me agree on all except the sovereign immunity part. From what I can find Texas never sent the GOR to the state legislature. The only way you can waive sovereign immunity in this state is if the legislature signs off on it, which they do regularly for larger contracts. GOR have been a norm in Hollywood true, but how many of those included a government entity? Yes Spider-Man was a transaction between Marvel and Sony but FSU’s is between the state of Florida and a private entity (ACC). I’d be weary of anyone that claims to have an iron clad contract against the government. Again not a lawyer, so I can be completely wrong, but if anyone has case law where a GOR was used against a government entity I’d love to see it.

I’m no lawyer, so perhaps you’re right, but what would they sue for?

They would likely sue ESPN/SEC/FSU for broadcasting rights they didn’t own. Also ACC in based out of NC so I assume they’d file in court there. But yes that’s the thing I’ve always wondered about the GOR, how do you enforce them on a State entity?

Not certain, you can argue anything but if the contract language is air tight then the reasoning doesn’t really matter. That being said, I’ve always thought GORs weren’t as iron clad when you’re dealing with public institutions as they are with private institutions or individuals. Not sure about FSU but I always assumed Texas had massive leverage as they could have theoretically just walked away from the Big 12 and claimed sovereign immunity if they tried to sue. The fact that we didn’t play that card publicly either means we did so only privately and didn’t want to rock the boat in the state since other Texas institutions were involved, or we were concerned about setting that precedent for future partnerships. Still if Texas was facing a budget gap like FSU is, I’d think they use it pretty quickly.

FSU could go Big Ten which add another layer, but yes ESPN could be on both side of the transaction. Let’s say FSU is worth $60 million/yr ESPN could theoretically facilitate moving them from the ACC to the SEC and negotiate down the ACC’s deal and up the SEC’s deal so that they don’t lose money. But the ACC would be losing that $60 million much of which went to subsidize Duke/Syracuse/Pitt/whoever so the ACC would take a hit and even if ESPN was good with this, the ACC would have damages.

https://frankthetank.org/2022/07/22/dissolution-is-not-a-solution-to-break-a-grant-of-rights-agreement/ The dissolution angle has been thrown around here (I am guilty of it as well) but according to this guy it’s not that easy.

Yeah seems not super informed. FSU leaves, ESPN sues ACC for breach of contract since they had a GOR. They could settle for a lesser payout and then the ACC could sue FSU for breach of contract for their losses. Using their numbers, FSU leaving would cost the conference $30 million a year (excluding FSU’s share but they could ask for the full 60) then that times 12 year’s remaining on the contract would be $360 million (likely more since TV deals are backloaded and go up each year). This could be doubled if they include FSU’s share to $720 million (but that seems unlikely to hold up). In a worst case scenario, ESPN uses this to cut ties with the ACC altogether (unlikely but not impossible) then FSU could theoretically be on the hook for significantly more damages if they end up having to settle for a subpar TV deal like the PAC12 is looking at. Don’t get me wrong I’d love to see FSU challenge the GOR in court for my own curiosity, but unless they find a loop hole I have a feeling they are stuck.

While true if you assume Texas has aggy as a rival basically you have up to 4 teams (OU, Ark, LSU, ?MSU?) that could possibly have 2 games in the state in a single year that occurs once every 4 years. If someone like Oklahoma or Arkansas have both UT and aggy as rivals they’d get 1 game a year in the state every year. Every “non rival” of UT/aggy gets 1 game in the state every other year which is basically what the SEC West and South Carolina had after aggy joined. The only teams that will get an increased Texas presence are those in the East. Also Oklahoma’s presence in the state, as a result of this move to the SEC will decrease. Currently they had 2-3 games a year in the state, now they be down to 1-2. Arkansas’s presence may also decrease if they don’t get both Texas and aggy as rivals. They’d go from playing aggy in Dallas every year to playing @Texas every other year and @aggy 1 out of every 4 years. Only LSU’s presence in the state will increase slightly assuming they are rivals with aggy but not Texas.