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TKthunder2

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by TKthunder2

  1. I don’t disagree with the analysis but I feel like including conference championship games and post season bowl/playoff games skews the data even more significantly toward those having good seasons. I assume your just referencing the top 25 chart on sportmediawatch, but the post season significantly skews our success criteria. Oregon/Washington drew 7 million and was the most watched game of the week during the regular season. Auburn was the number 2 game of the week twice last year against UGA and Bama drawing more than 6 million each time. All of these examples were overall top 15 games out of the 13 week regular cfb seasons. For the Auburn example you could counter that they only draw because they played Bama/UGA and but Kentucky DID NOT draw 7 million playing those same teams. This to make shows there is a clear distinction from Auburn and Kentucky which is why I separate them into a different tiers based out their outcome driven values. I typically consider 5 million+ viewers to be a major indicator of your program/year. Only 32 games pulled 5 million+ last year. Sure their are a few outliers like TCU, Colorado St, Duke, Maryland, and Georgia Tech where the Colorado or a power program is carrying most of the load, but in general those games are between teams in the top tier or one clearly in the elite of your second tier.
  2. “Old” does not equal “Historic”
  3. I think they should just declare a G5 regular season champion that is selected to play in the CFP, and the rest play in a G5 playoff tournament. Let two teams declare themselves national champions it don’t hurt nobody. This would be better TV than watching the top ranked MAC team gets spanked by a 7-5 Big Ten team in the Little Cesar’s Pizza Bowl.
  4. Find a rivalry game (UW/WSU, UO/OrSO, UTSA/TXSt, CU/CSU,) Find an end of year FCS patsy. Schedule 3 regular OOC games like most schools. and if all else fails, schedule UConn. Is it ideal? No, but it’s better than paying out ridiculous money for MWC going jumping from the Colorado River to past the Mississippi River for an opponent that isn’t much better than what you could get OOC. If you add UTEP or a Northern Illinois you have to play them EVERY YEAR. Do you think the networks will pay to see those matchups? If they are already not paying much, keep the circle tight and everyone gets a bigger piece of pie. Colorado State already has 4 OOC scheduled out for the next 3 years playing 2 P4 opponents (but not Colorado), an FCS, and a G5. I don’t think it will be that difficult to find a 5th game.
  5. My guesses: PAC adds Texas State for 8. Texas State fits their footprint and sounds like a big boy school to those who don’t know better, I’m guessing they offer them a lesser cut than those of the MWC like the ACC did with Stanford/Cal. TX St is awkward in either conference geographically speaking, but would rather take the money and join the Western schools than be paired with the more regional/directional universities of the Sun Belt. This would immediately change their external perception and put them in the conversation for the best of the G5 Texas schools along with UTSA. MWC doesn’t have a lot of leg to stand on here. They have money but they just gave away a good chuck of it to keep AFA/UNLV. I think cooler heads will prevail and they’ll come to their senses and do the sensible thing and just take UTEP and NMSU for 8+Hawaii fb while keeping watch for Western FCS upgrades like SacSt, Utah Tech, and Southern Utah, while trying to see if they can land any combo of the Montana/Dakota schools. CUSA holds at 10 but keeps watching for Eastern FCS upgrades (like Eastern Kentucky). Sun Belt doesn’t need any more teams, they just continue forward with unbalanced divisions of 13 for the time being, but I think they might start talking about bringing MTSU and WKU back into the fold along with Missouri State. That would get them to 16 and cover every Southern-ish state East of Texas other than Florida. Still I don’t see them wanting to move right away unless their TV deal requires a certain number of members. They’ll likely hold for now and watch how everything else shakes out and see if there is any stronger candidates emerge. MAC and AAC hold pat.
  6. Back in the day I actually assumed Texas State would have more potential than UTSA to be successful in FBS and would have been pulled into a better conference. To date I was clearly wrong, maybe this changes that going forward.
  7. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41462529/mountain-west-conference-gets-commitments-7-remaining-members MWC looking at Texas State and NIU.
  8. Yeah, I respect your takes on here, so we can just agree to disagree. I doubt see any way shape or form Houston and Cincy are in the same category as Auburn or Oregon. I can buy Okie St and Utah when ranked are about equal to those teams when unranked. I think you clearly have 3rd (Washington State) and 4th tiers (Sam Houston) I agree ESPN is close but the numbers prove out that it is a step below the OTA channels. It’s the clear tier 2 but to your point there isn’t a close third. Third is ESPN2, FS1, and now the CW apparently. Fourth tier would be conference networks, ESPNU, and now apparently truTV. Not sure how to count streaming since it’s not well tracked or reported.
  9. I find it hard to believe, but I guess we’ll see, shit leaks out fast nowadays…
  10. They only need a single football playing member. They don’t need an all sports member. UConn, Toledo, and NIU I are their desperation moves. Sam Houston isn’t even on the radar.
  11. I think UTEP will finally get its MWC invite. CUSA might even waive the exit fee if they take NMSU with them now that they have Delaware and Missouri State upgrading. CUSA was looking real hard at Eastern Kentucky previously, I’m confident they’d trade the extra travel to UTEP/NMSU for EKU and shrink their conference travel costs significantly.
  12. It’s not so bad, been there many times, it’s a nice enough place for a high school playoff game, it just small for FBS. I never believed they go to FBS until the news broke. I figured with the old capacity requirements they would have to make the stadium bigger first, but those just aren’t enforced at all anymore it seems.
  13. This is dumb. They have like a 12,000 seat stadium. There is no way.
  14. Washington, Oregon, USC, Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan State are all worth scheduling just for their brand/status. UCLA, Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland are all good travel destinations. I don’t really have any desire to play Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, or Purdue but I assume a Big Ten fan would feel the same way about Arkansas, Mizzou, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Kentucky. While I generally don’t like the idea of a scheduling agreement, I do think it’s probably the easiest way to get more money out of the TV networks. They don’t pay much for OOC games because most of them suck. This way they’d potentially have 16 games of interest from 25 of the top 30 brands in the sports, and would avoid years like this year’s Ohio State’s OOC schedule and last year where Georgia and Michigan played nobody OOC.
  15. Texas State would be a legit option that somewhat works geographically speaking. Stick at 8 play round robin and do 4 out of conference games. Washington State Oregon State Boise State Fresno State San Diego State Utah State Colorado State Texas State or Toledo and Northern Illinois? I’m mean for shit’s sake they could just stick a 7 and add UConn football until the 2032 when UNLV is available again.
  16. Seriously, leave the MAC alone.
  17. We’re not far off, I was mostly using your post as a way to post my own thoughts and musings. I think our only disagreement is around the term second tier. I don’t think the Big12 has any that I would permanently put in that tier with Oregon and Auburn, but on the year to year metric I could make that concession speaking of relative attractiveness of a team in a specific week/season. Last week Arkansas/Auburn on ESPN had 2.0 million viewers while Utah/Okie St got 2.1 million on OTA FOX. So a ranked undefeated v ranked undefeated over the air match up barely out drew an unranked one loss team v and unranked one loss team on basic cable. By this metric I feel comfortable enough to say the brands of Aub+Ark > Utah+OkSt when you equailze the scenario/network/etc. Which then feels odd to say they are both 2nd tier teams.
  18. Colorado is what it is. You can’t derive value out of them long term for Colorado or the Big 12. When BY presents his numbers with the Prime years included in them the first thing the networks will do is strip them out or discard those years altogether because it’s not representative of the value you’re paying for in their new contract. Now if Prime stay and finds the next Travis Hunter and continues to draw 4million viewers against FCS teams and 3 million against G5 teams for years to come then they will count. But for now those just aren’t representative. After 4 weeks, other than Colorado who accounted for every 3 million+ viewers thus far, the FOX games have driven 5 of the 10 2 million+ games. ABC 1, ESPN 1, CBS 2, NBC 1. Repeating myself but this exposure with FOX is the biggest advantage the Big 12 has. They should be doing everything they can to take advantage of it. 3 rivalry games account for that too placement on NBC/CBS, a matchup with the SEC got them on ABC. The traditional conference games will primarily end up on FOX and ESPN. The Big 12 should continue to pursue more rivalry OOC games. Bedlam, Border War, Backyard Brawl, etc would enhance and boost their profile. If the goal is a bigger TV deal next time around, this is a major opportunity toward that. Teams with 2million+ games Colorado: 4 Oklahoma St, Utah, Baylor: 2 ISU, KSU, AZ, WVU: 1 Nothing too shocking other than Baylor in this list (likely just because they played Colorado and Utah but facts are facts) The “Late” window has been used 5 out of the 6 weeks scheduled and I expect this to be a common theme for the new Big 12 when the 4corner schools play a lack luster game at home. They pull a million or so which is a good way to prop up a below average game with inflated viewership to help the overall picture. The Big 12 also has had 6 weeknight games (mostly Friday) with another scheduled for next week. Colorado’s kick off game pulled ridiculous numbers, but other than them AZ/KSU on FOX did a respectable 2.5 million while the other averaged about 1.14 million.
  19. Big 12 got a new deal with CBS for basketball. https://awfulannouncing.com/cbs/big-12-multiyear-agreement-mens-college-basketball-games.html
  20. Gonna make your wifey preggers and grab her natty tuddies
  21. PAC7 and MWC7…just so dumb
  22. If there is a Taylor Doyle celebration thread on shaggy you all should be ashamed of yourselves. I was pissed off when he made that offer.
  23. So what are the Big 12’s secondary teams that are on the same level as Oregon or Auburn? Because I can’t think of any. That’s the part I don’t agree with. In a mock draft of college football teams I think you’d see more what you call 3rd tier SEC and Big Ten team come off the board before you get to the first Big 12 selection.
  24. If they fired him, what are the odds he goes to Tulane next? It’s like he’s Benjamin Buttoning his own career reliving his greatest hits… 1983 Appalachian State 1985–1987 Tulane 1988–1997 North Carolina 1998–2013 Texas 2019–2024? North Carolina ?2024-2026 Tulane…? Appalachian State better watch out
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