The Pentagon has said that if congress doesn’t get their shit together, Ukraine is about to be outgunned. That’s factually correct and says nothing about Ukraine’s longer term prospects for victory. As is, Russia will have a ~1 month window where they have a large advantage in terms of men, artillery, and Ukraine will be starved of air defenses. Ukraine is about to needlessly suffer and undoubtedly lose territory and infrastructure because of the US House. It’s hard for me to think of a recent example of US Politicians more directly having blood on their hands.
But since you apparently haven’t been paying attention, I’ll spell out how Ukraine wins:
1 - Ukraine immediately receives a stockpile of Patriot missiles and ~7+ patriot systems from the ~100 spread across the EU. Russia has only been able to take out so much Ukrainian power production recently due to a shortage of Patriot missiles. Aside from reducing civilian suffering, this greatly diminishes Russia’s ability to use glide bombs on Ukrainian fortifications at the front because when patriots get near the front, Russia starts losing a jet a day on those glide bomb runs. Russia has only been able to achieve pockets of air superiority recently due to the patriot shortage.
2 - Ukraine receives artillery, mortars, etc… they’ve proven they don’t need to match Russia’s 10k shells per day to prevent Russian advance because they’re more efficient. But they’ll start receiving the 1-2+ million shells from the Czech led initiative in June. If the US could get them something like 6k shells per day immediately, they’d be able to hold the lines until June.
3 - Ukraine continues playing defense, smoking Russians at a 4:1 to 10+:1 clip … Ukraine receives F16s and enough long range weapons to permanently push Russian support hubs and 100+ miles from the front. Yes, Ukraine has had to give up some land since Avdiivka fell, but they’ve retreated to naturally advantageous positions. They now have water barriers and the high ground and Russian advances have largely stopped again.
4 - Ukraine takes out that bridge in the east and the rail lines over the land bridge to Crimea and chokes out the peninsula.
5 - Ukraine continues relentlessly targeting Russian oil and gas, Russian manufacturing, power plants, etc. Starve the machine of oil. This is the most obvious way to break Russia.
6 - Sustain the lines and keep Ukraine mostly clean and productive for 2+ more years. Russia is losing about 1k men per day. Their infrastructure is failing. They’re hemorrhaging billions of dollars a day in lost o&g revenue. Their stockpiles are demonstrably running low and they’re about to be completely dependent on their own production rates (which appear very insufficient) and supplies from their shit stain allies. Inflation is already very high in Russia and will get much worse due to shortages. Russia will break. Go fuck yourself