Rusty Shackelford

Also the 99% for allowing it to happen for decades and completely missing it.

The real problem here isn't the 1%. It's our unstable (insane) monetary system. Central banks are distorting interest rates and QE is fueling this fire. Bingo, this also doesn’t belong to any political party, but since this thread is in the politics forum we get the cheerleaders trying to blame it on the red team / blue team.

Sounds crazy, right? I mean what kind of tinfoiler would say something like this? Sorry for the thread derail, but I will award 1 "thanks" trophy to anyone who can tell me who said this and when.

I think he will be proven correct, but for now the Fed and other central banks will continue pumping out that QE because the market didn't approve of the little QT experiment. Hey look a new ATH on the S&P today! Central banks will not change what they are doing unless there is a radical change in world order.

Looks like NYC has it figured out... https://nypost.com/2019/10/26/nyc-homeless-initiative-sends-people-across-us-without-telling-receiving-cities/ New York City generously shares its homeless crisis with every corner of America. From the tropical shores of Honolulu and Puerto Rico, to the badlands of Utah and backwaters of Louisiana, the Big Apple has sent local homeless families to 373 cities across the country with a full year of rent in their pockets as part of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s “Special One-Time Assistance Program.” Usually, the receiving city knows nothing about it. City taxpayers have spent $89 million on rent alone since the program’s August 2017 inception to export 5,074 homeless families — 12,482 individuals — to places as close as Newark and as far as the South Pacific, according to Department of Homeless Services data obtained by The Post. Families who once lived in city shelters decamped to 32 states and Puerto Rico.

Small U.S. oil and gas companies get cold shoulder from large banks NEW YORK (Reuters) - The largest banking lenders to the U.S. oil and gas sector are becoming more cautious, marking down their expectations for oil and gas prices that underpin loans in a move expected to put further financial stress on struggling producers, industry and banking sources said. Major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N), and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) have, as part of regular biannual reviews, cut their estimated values for oil-and-gas companies’ reserves, which serve as the basis for those companies to receive reserve-based loans (RBLs), according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the activity. While the size of the RBL market is unclear, it is estimated that a few hundred companies take such loans, with the cumulative size in the billions of dollars. Those lenders have marked down the perceived value for both oil and natural gas for the coming five years, with the changes kicking in as early as this month. Expected natural gas prices have been cut by around $0.50 per million British thermal units, about 20% below levels set in the spring. Industry sources are forecasting some firms face a 15% to 30% reduction in loan size as a result. Oil prices are expected to be about $1 to $2 lower than spring estimates. “Some banks believe they have too much energy exposure and want to reduce some of this risk,” said Ian Rainbolt, vice president of finance at Warwick Energy, a private equity firm with upstream investments in Oklahoma and Texas. That is a threat to smaller companies, which are already struggling to find other methods of financing - such as issuing stock or bonds - as investors grow restless with years of poor returns in the shale sector even as the United States has risen to become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Investors are bracing for weak returns for the third quarter from shale producers due to lower oil and gas prices. Reduced funding could slow growth in U.S. oil and gas production, and also threaten more bankruptcies in the sector. Bankruptcy filings among U.S. oil and gas producers are at levels not seen since 2016, when U.S. crude slumped to $26 per barrel, according to law firm Haynes and Boone. Companies heavily focused on natural gas drilling may be the most threatened. Banks are forecasting natural gas prices between $2 and $2.35 per million British thermal units for the next 12 months, and up to $2.50 at the end of the five-year term, all lower than in the spring. “I expect the biggest issues to be with over-leveraged natural gas producers, especially those without firm transportation in geographically-disadvantaged areas,” said Brock Hudson, managing director at investment bank Carl Marks Advisors, who referenced companies in Appalachia, the Rockies and parts of Oklahoma. Smaller RBLs can have huge consequences: Alta Mesa Resources, an Oklahoma-focused producer headed by former Anadarko Petroleum chairman Jim Hackett, filed for bankruptcy a month after its borrowing base was slashed by almost half in mid-August. A number of banks, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N), declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment. REDUCED AVAILABILITY Eight sources indicated larger banks have set their price decks, the industry term for the value they will ascribe to hydrocarbons behind the RBLs, with oil between $46 and $51 per barrel for the next five years. There are fewer financing options available to help bridge the gap from lower RBLs. Just one U.S. producer, Contango Oil & Gas (MCF.A), has issued any new equity in 2019, while there has only been one high-yield bond offering by a shale producer since March, according to Refinitiv data. Since 2018, the S&P 500 Energy Sector .SPNY is the worst performing sector in the Standard & Poor’s 500, falling 18% against a 12.8% increase for the broader index, and many publicly-traded shale companies have done even worse. Those facing lower loan guarantees also can not rely on selling unwanted assets to raise cash as mergers and acquisitions activity is at its lowest level in a decade. Profiting from further production is also difficult, as the number of active oil and gas rigs is at its lowest level since April 2017, according to Baker Hughes. Scott Richardson, head of U.S. energy investment banking at RBC Capital Markets, said any uptick in bankruptcies would likely come from the SCOOP/STACK area of Oklahoma and the gas-heavy southern portion of Texas’ Midland Basin. Loan covenants are also being tightened, according to a Dallas Federal Reserve Bank energy survey published Sept. 25. The survey said some participants noted banks had lowered the maximum debt level permissible to 2.5 to 3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), from 3.5 to 4.0 times. Some regional lenders have kept prices for oil and gas in fall’s redetermination higher than the larger institutions, according to three of the sources. Warwick’s Rainbolt, who has oversight over four RBLs, said it was switching to regional banks, which offered better price decks. One bank priced gas starting at $2.37, rising to above $3 in the final year, with crude at $52 rising to near-$60 a barrel.

I'm rooting for Wells cause I want Tech to win, but I'm def not excited to have him as HC and never thought he was the right choice either.

I’ve enjoyed many Allsup’s burritos on road trips but I never ate from the one in my hometown. It’s now been replaced by the new fancy store but the old one smelled like rancid grease, no pay at the pump and god help you if you went in the bathroom. What used to bother me the most was the cashier who had the thickest mustache I have ever seen on a woman (no tranny) Anyone ever bought the Allsup’s brand bottled water? I got it once cause it was cheap and it tasted like a feed lot. Then I read the label and it said the water source was the City of Amarillo water supply.

Glad the VIX is staying low, I'm going to have to buy some 11/1 VXX calls https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/goldman-sachs-predicts-the-fed-will-make-two-big-changes-next-week.html Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will make two big changes next week Key Points The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next week, but that would be the last such move for a while, according to Goldman Sachs. Fed officials are likely to say this is the end of the “mid-cycle” adjustment that Chairman Jerome Powell alluded to in July, the bank predicts. In addition, the central bank could remove the language stating it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” that has been in play since June.

Yes, I read some more into it last night and saw the same things pointing to JPM. Now the only question is their intent for pulling their cash out of the overnight market. Did they do it because they needed the cash to meet the reserve requirements or did they do it to force the Fed to loosen up, or maybe they just don't want to lend to shitty banks that are in trouble?

I like turtles

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCSRESNS “Excess Reserves” are half of what they were at the end of QE3, but still at $1.3 trillion if you believe the Fed. My guess is that one or more of the big banks are in serious trouble and the other banks know it and are unwilling to loan them money at any interest rate, so the Fed is stepping in. They need to tell us who is involved in these repo operations, it is bullshit that they keep it confidential.

> $10,000,000 salary?

The Fed just announced that POMO is back. USC cheerleader dot gif

What??????! I thought The Onion and the cackling hens on the view made it clear that this was a binary situation over there, and the US is making the obviously stupid choice.

What about Thomas Leggett?

And here comes the other side to that coin (savers pay for the debtor's reward) I'm sure the wealthy will gladly pay that penalty https://www.reuters.com/article/unicredit-rates-idUSL5N26U440

Those are cool. The Ok State trilogy really sounds like it was written for the nintendo

You did. Welcome to the ignored list next to ButtFumble.

Tyner sucks + he gets the start over Jett @ OU = Wells is a QB genius? OK got it.

I’m sure Tyner would make a fine QB for the USU aggies.

Yeah, the banks supposedly have all these reserves: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS Well maybe not every bank? https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details

paywall for me so I don't know if this was expanded on more, but I have been reading that Germany is not playing ball and has been "gasp" running a budget surplus instead of a deficit like Draghi wants them to.

Now at 47.8 That doesn't look good, but I just cnn.com and no mention at all so it's probably nothing.