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Everything posted by Eastwood
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My heater has been running non-stop for over an hour now. Heat pump system with aux heat set to 65. Outside unit is close to 10 years old. Hope it makes it through this.
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As long as it isn't Coors. I see what happens when their train rolls through a town.
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These are desperate times, Shank. We're going to need more. Time to start slamming back Dart Bowl enchiladas and Wolf Brand chili. Be our warmth.
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That's not a Mercedes and that's not Tarrytown.
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I went outside to check on things and there's already freezing drizzle at my house, which is about 8 - 12 hours ahead of schedule. Honestly, I know you just spent a boat load on BBQ, but you might end up spending a lot more than that if you try to make that trip.
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We're dry in the north part of Bexar County, but we didn't get back over freezing this morning like we were supposed to and there is a patch of freezing drizzle coming up from the south, which is earlier than forecasted. If you get down here, you might not get back to Austin without a struggle.
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DO NOT blowtorch. Hair dryer will work just fine. Heat it evenly all over until it starts flowing freely.
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It's a funny word... Spigot... Spigot...
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Are you hoping the air bubbles are enough space to allow for expansion? Won't the air bubbles be displaced when you use other faucets since they're all on the same line? No idea about the front spigot, but I had to replace the entire main line to the house in June of '19 and we found out that the back spigot is actually pex pipe that is run off of the main line and dug all the way around the back of the house and the pipe comes out of the ground and connects to the back spigot. The front spigot is in the wall next to the garage, so I'm not too worried about that one and I have a spigot cover. The back line, though, in theory, should have some air cushion because it has it's own line off of the main line and not a part of the house lines.
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I'm going to cut the water to the house and run the outside spigots until they are empty, close them back up, then turn the water back on. It won't completely empty them and some water will get back in, but I'm hoping it will open up enough space to allow expansion if they freeze.
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I'll echo the same thing I've been echoing since December: do not short GME and do not sell naked calls. This thing is likely still coiled up and prone to launching on a catalyst. It's just that the barrier to entry on the trade is so expensive now that it is much more of a gamble than it was even in November when the price was $20. It's a gamble, at this point, that I'm more than happy to watch from the sidelines.
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Does the timing of the high price, right now, not give anyone hope? Is nobody dedicating more Capex to projects this year? This same time in 2016, people were gearing up to take advantage of the lower costs.
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CRSR has earnings tomorrow before open. Interestingly enough, institutional ownership is 90.07% and short float is 33.86%. EagleTree Capital owns a whopping 76.3% of the shares. Might make for a volatile situation soon.
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I wouldn't think about shorting it until official short float info comes out. If share liquidity is still low due to a greater than 100% institutional ownership and a high short float, which is what got us here in the first place, it's still a powder keg that will go off on any positive catalyst. This is a lotto ticket stock until the whole situation unwinds. Anyone betting on either side with everything going on around it outside of the market is gambling.
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Yeah, GameStop was caught flat-footed when a sea change began in the industry. Video games were, and are still, becoming more of a lifestyle brand than brick and mortar retail industry. They threw Sherman in as CEO, and he did great in the brick and mortar space, but it was a huge signal that the GameStop board still just didn't get it. I initially bought in due to the short interest issue, but Cohen was a tremendous surprise and a game changer for the company. What the older generations, even a large chunk of Generation X, doesn't understand stand about video games as an art form is the emotional attachment to the experiences provided by the games. Cohen lapped the field with Chewy because he understood the emotional connection with pets and created a "customer centric" rather than a "product centric" model that capitalized on that. If he can accomplish the same with GameStop, then I could see them capturing at least 35% of the total North American video game sales alone, which is going to be over $50 billion in a couple of years, and that still leaves online services revenue, their rewards membership revenue, their revenue sharing with Microsoft, and their expansion into PC hardware and collectibles. Like I said prior, GameStop may just be shaping up to be a very dangerous company in this space and I'm excited for them.
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I warned that there would be shenanigans starting up in all this. I still don't see how they can possibly unwind the entire short position and will be buying back in for a small amount if the price gets right, just to see what happens. But no one, absolutely no one, should be or should have been yoloing at this. It proved out that I wasn't tilting at a windmill, but once I saw the exact size of the giant, I turned my horse around real quick. Yolo time cutoff was June. Even more surprising in all this is the market jumping up so much. I had orders ready to go for VXX calls and SPY puts for this week and canceled them Monday morning. I think we saw the market shudder twice under the weight of the situation, and I was confident that a correction was going to be triggered this week, but now it is acting like a great weight has been lifted. It would be amazing to see GME be the biggest bear trap in history, and therefore be the greatest bull trap for the broader market, but with all the shenanigans you will essentially be gambling that Wall Street actually does lose to the little guy. Might as well take that yolo money to a roulette table.
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I'm not sure what real time data the funds have access to, but people have been pouring through this data... https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm Failure to deliver: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp If you crack open the Zip files on the SEC page linked above and Ctrl+F search for GME, you can put together a list of number of shares and strike price for failed deliveries. Here's a watered down version of what GME looked like on that list in December, being date/ticker/number of shares: 20201201, GME, 91971 20201202, GME, 1061397 20201203, GME, 1787191 20201204, GME, 999475 20201207, GME, 1002379 20201208, GME, 872292 20201209, GME, 721361 20201210, GME, 605975 20201211, GME, 880063 20201214, GME, 284296 20201215, GME, 170655 20201216, GME, 10784 20201217, GME, 500162 20201218, GME, 872523 20201221, GME, 619404 20201222, GME, 744478 20201223, GME, 700507 20201224, GME, 839699 20201228, GME, 351316 20201229, GME, 283294 20201230, GME, 648513 20201231, GME, 228358 That's a lot of shares, Flip Flop. All in the $13 - $20 range. If you crack open the Zip files on the SEC page linked above and Ctrl+F search for GME, you can put together a list of number of shares and strike price. It's more of the same in the first half of January, but I don't want to Long Cat the thread. We are waiting on the second half of January numbers. Again, this isn't Retail's fault. Retail can't produce failed to deliver numbers like that. The brokers can, though.
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The short float got up to 140%. The shorts can get the float down below 100%, but they can never get it to 0% with all the synthetic shares out there. That's why it was such a big deal. There are more shares committed to buyers than there are existing shares. That situation needs to be made whole somehow. Some shorts need the share price to drop below $50 before they can start covering, as well, lest they face bankruptcy.
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TDA wouldn't let me sell cash covered puts on GME, just FYI. Looks like they are locking down options on it.
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I think a move could be that all institutions, banks, and hedge funds that sold naked shorts and created synthetic shares should pay GME the fair market value (today's price, in other words) for the amount the naked shorted or created. This takes infinite loss off the board and still leaves the float in short squeeze territory long enough for retail to plan an exit. Lest we forget, short squeezes start becoming a thing under various conditions above 30% or so, even more so when it crosses the 50% threshold and institutional ownership is high. The float would still be 100%. GME can't budge here. Cramer wants to blame GME for not speaking up or issuing shares, but why would they? This wasn't their mess. Now they have a metric ton of customer good will. Their public image has been completely saved. Imagine the amount of buying in store and online GME is about to experience. If they interject now, they sour all of that.
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All the Melvin, et al shorts are still climbing while the rest of the market is selling off. I think we're seeing a large liquidation occurring.
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CNBC has had a funeral type atmosphere all week long.
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I'm absolutely convinced that BlackRock just gobbled up a couple hedge funds. They had some 9 figure positions in companies that were being heavily shorted by those funds and I have no doubt that they waited until the funds were overextended and then lit the match. Retail doesn't have the volume or the liquidity to send that many companies parabolic. AMC had over a billion in volume on Wednesday while GME and other stocks were cranking out hundreds of millions in volume. Retail can't do that. Additionally, $91 billion was wiped off of short books this month, per CNBC. That is $11 billion more than what Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America were going to pool together to stave off the damage created by the subprime mortgage fiasco in 2008. If $91 billion actually left Wall Street and into the hands of retailers, we'd already be seeing more than just the brokers freezing up the buying of shares. It would be absolute calamity. I think the bulk of that $91 billion when to BlackRock and any pilot fish funds that caught on and positioned themselves to pick up the crumbs. The money is still on Wall Street, and therefore, funneling back into the big banks.
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Actually, yes. GME has two decades of customer data, brand recognition, and a revenue sharing agreement with Microsoft where GME gets a share of the revenue from all products purchased online through XBoxes sold through them. It will actually go beyond online, however. I believe that their direct competition will actually be Steam. Anyone familiar with Steam knows that it is an online platform that not only allows a person to purchase games, it also has a social media element to it that allows friends to engage directly with each other in an incredibly streamlined fashion. Their ecommerce numbers have already gone about as parabolic as their stock price. All they need now is Cohen's customer heavy focus and online market touch to utilize the name recognition, which by the way has now been massively boosted further through all this, and run the customer data through similar algos that Chewy used. Additionally, their stores are already in the process of becoming PC building stations where customers come in, pick out parts, and build the PC in store with the assistance of GME staff. When this is all said and done, I think GME is going to be a very dangerous company in the video game space, which has exploded into a multi-hundred billion dollar industry. That's why I'm starting to look at selling some puts so I can get my shares back when the dust settles. Then I'm holding very long term.
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Which is absolutely false. After they survived Q2, they had enough cash on hand and assets to pay off 100% of their debt in the event of a bankruptcy and would actually have funds left over to pay shareholders. Companies in that position don't go bankrupt. Company's that are about to go bankrupt don't have someone like Ryan Cohen dump $75 million into it. Anyone saying the GME was going bankrupt in 2020 after Q2 was writing hit pieces. It's exactly why I went long on it in May. Someone gambled the house on it going under and all of the indicators after Q2 said otherwise. That's also when Cohen stepped in.
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