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Eastwood

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Eastwood

  1. The Judiciary takes their role as a 3rd branch of government fairly seriously. Sure, the R judges will generally rule favorably for R causes, but one thing that has been fairly consistent is the Judiciary's pushback on the other two branches attempting to treat them as puppets. If the Rs or the Ds push something to the courts basically demanding that the Judiciary do their bidding, the Judiciary will push back and tell them to bring a legitimate cause of action or get lost.
  2. I have a gif/video idea if Texas turns blue, but I don't want to execute until the deed is done. But if there is a photoshop/premiere guru out there that wants to help, let me know.
  3. I think this would have a legitimate chance at creating a 3 party system over the next 10 years, if that's the case. If Rs get trounced this election, it will cause a panic in establishment Rs who have been there a while. I could see the Republican Party fracture into McConnell Rs and Trump Rs.
  4. I'm coasting this weekend because I'm going to be litty fuh-gitty on Tuesday night. And the 3 and 5 year old will be up bright and early at 6 AM like clockwork.
  5. We have reached Charlie Strong levels with the snap.
  6. If this happens due to a court-assisted flip of PA, this whole thing falls apart. Civil unrest will be at a level not seen since the Civil War.
  7. I'm talking the people who never had a year to begin with. Every penny that comes in goes out by the end of next month. I'm in the situation you describe, right now. It's going to suck building this all back up, but I'd rather be doing that than biting my nails down to nubs with worry over whether or not I'm able to pay my mortgage over the next 12 months.
  8. This pandemic has really laid bare why those making $400k or more get insanely wound up over tax increases: A lot of them are paycheck to paycheck just like poor people. They might have a $1.2 million home, a 5 series, and a Range Rover, but they are redlining just like the family of 5 in a rented 2 bedroom duplex with a 20 year old Camry with a busted out window. It was amazing to watch the hand wringing when the shutdown hit and people who should have the means to build up a year of expenses with no problem are suddenly claiming that the lockdown will break them. Let's lump corporate America in there, too. It's amazing to see companies with hundreds of millions in market cap all of a sudden pushed to the brink when 1 month of income went out the window. As it turns out, we really are a welfare state. From the very bottom to the tip top.
  9. Sorry to hear that, man. If I'm remembering you correctly, we went to junior high together. If you need someone other than family to talk to, feel free to reach out.
  10. The true idiocy of the trucks harassing the bus is that you can guarantee license plates were taken down. If Biden becomes president, welcome to the FBI watch list, boys.
  11. These assholes really tried to get it green during power hour. Getting a real "coiled" feeling here. I think if we have clear results Tuesday night, we're going up in a hurry.
  12. If I remember the story correctly, it was during a shutdown so the Whitehouse kitchen was unavailable. McDonald's was his alternative. But you are right, if he was a billionaire, he should have no problem dropping 50 Gs to make sure guests he invited to his house got the same experience as the previous year's.
  13. Yeah, this whole thing is exactly why I'm not worried about some kind of 4D chess election shenanigans. These are the same people who declared victory when Trump "wrestled control of the nation back from scientists," as they see it. These people felt challenged... By scientists specializing in virology and immunology... During a pandemic. This is reaping what the anti-intellectual movement of the early to mid 2000s has sown.
  14. There's a lot of "counter-culture" and "shock value" voting in that demographic. My neighborhood has a group of recent high school grads that have Trump bumper stickers and Trump flags on their trucks. Being a Trump supporter in that demographic is the same as any teenage fad. It gets them attention, regardless if it is good or bad, and gives them something to rally around with their peers. Just based on my own observations, I have a good hunch that it will be a phase that they look back on and wonder what the hell they were thinking, like all teen fads.
  15. Urban doesn't need to string Texas along just to get Herman fired and then back out. That's short-game, littleman narcissism. Urban is a big man narcissist. He knows Tom is dead in the water here. How does Tom getting fired do anything for him as a way of payback? A narcissist like Urban is the kind that will want to step into the exact role of someone he hates, do everything that person couldn't, then walk away like he didn't even care about it. Pure smug spite. And that's exactly what Urban intends to do.
  16. I'll dig even deeper on this. The more orthodox evangelicals don't think Catholics are christian, at all. They think Catholicism is a polytheistic religion that worships a living man as fervently as God, himself, as well as viewing the saints as separate entities that are worshiped. And it's funny you mention the works/repentance aspect of it. Evangelicals actually think that Catholics have an easier path to heaven in their religion because all they have to do is "buy" their way in with hollow good deeds rather than true repentance. How else could you explain a religion embraced by adulterers like JFK and entire societies based on crime like the mafia. That's their words, not mine, by the way. If I had to classify myself as anything these days, it's as a "Golden Rule Agnostic."
  17. It's a great read, but it won't make a difference with evangelicals. If I sent this around to my evangelical family members, their first response will be that he's Catholic. Catholics don't count for Southern evangelicals. I can't speak to other regions, though. I could ask them if they've ever even seen anything remotely resembling a similar behavior in Trump, and they'll counter that Biden probably had someone write that for him and he didn't even give any input on it. Biden needs to keep it up, though. Although there aren't many undecideds left, this election is less a straight up competition and more like a late season college football game. You can't just win. You gotta dominate and look great doing it because it has to pass the eyeball test.
  18. The concerning thing I see if that PA is down to +5. It was +7 before the final debate, I think. So, it is possible the oil comments caused a ding there, but as long as Biden holds +5 in PA through 11/3, I think the election is safe. If Biden falls within the MOE in PA, MI, or WI, then it's a nail biter. If not, it's a 300+ EV win.
  19. Get ready to hear about Bush v. Gore over and over and over again on November 3rd. It solidified the state legislatures as the sole bodies that sets election laws in the states. The Texas Supreme Court threw out the Republican challenge to the Abbott extension solely because they did not timely file in the Court's eyes. It is unlikely for that case to end up in front of SCOTUS, but look for any similar challenges to the of amending state election laws due to COVID to show up in front of SCOTUS before December rolls around.
  20. I had a group of calls for December, so that's a yikes. Kind of tempted to hold until election to see how the market reacts.
  21. I really don't think it will come down to some final showdown in the courts. If Biden gets up over 300 EC votes, and I think he will, this is exactly how Trump will be treated by the Rs:
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