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Eastwood

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Eastwood

  1. This is where I stand. If Trump really was a useful idiot, his time in office has outlived his usefulness. They'll take what they got out of the last 4 years and punt if it really is Biden by more than a 300 EVs projected. They absolutely cannot risk the civil war that WILL happen if SCOTUS comes in and overturns votes cast to flip the EV counts of Biden and Trump. Trump might be a "King of the Ashes" type, but the established Rs that rode the Trump train are not. McConnell isn't a "King of the Ashes" kind of guy. He will circle the wagons and, for lack of a better term for McConnell, turtle up and let the next two years play out to reposition and reset. The Rs won't push all in on a guy who has been nationally embarrassing and insulting him when he sees fit. Once there's blood in the water, the establishment Rs will be the first ones to swarm him.
  2. Very hard to believe that the independent vote is anything but a heavy Biden vote. People who are Trump voters are way more likely to identify as Republican than Independent.
  3. 1. dead/ fake/ burning ballot votes to disenfranchise plenty of folks 2. ??? 3. Profit
  4. Tip of the cap to Fud for standing in the pocket. He didn't come in here and throw out a couple of one-liners and disappear.
  5. Look, everyone, I can put this whole oil thing to rest... I went to TexAgs last night and they were throwing a Trump victory celebration over the comment. They are convinced that Biden just sealed his fate in literally every swing state and Lean D state over that comment. They think Trump is getting over 350 EC votes. When TexAgs is that sure of something, it is doomed to be the exact opposite.
  6. I talked ad naseam about the oil comment last night. Republicans are dancing in Biden's grave in PA over it. PA isn't an oil state, it's a natural gas state. They're second only to Texas. As long as this nation needs natural gas, there will be jobs for it in PA regardless of what happens to oil.
  7. I worked wind farms for just over 4 years and worked a couple BP projects. Natural gas is not only the main source of energy in the US, but it is also the back-up power for wind farms when they aren't producing enough power on their own. All the massive refineries in the nation have their own power generation that is also run on gas turbines. Replacing natural gas as the main source of power in this nation isn't happening in the next 50 years.
  8. Present. But the Trump voters outnumber everyone else 10 to 1 in the man camps, service offices, and land offices.
  9. My final take on the oil comment and those who are concerned about PA now... https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php PA doesn't even crack the top 15 in oil production. Also note that Democratic states CO, NM, IL, and CA all produce more oil than PA. What PA does produce a lot of is natural gas. Joe came out and said he isn't banning fracking. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=46&t=8 This topic might be a rallying point for some, but I really don't think this moves the needle in a damaging way in PA. It certainly doesn't move the needle in NV, NC, GA, IA, WI, or AZ.
  10. That's because companies that shed crews during the '15 bust started shipping experienced crews around the nation rather than train locals like they did in the 00s. Most frac crews these days are imported from elsewhere. You'll get some jobs with the local service companies and some jobs from people maintaining the play after the drilling is done, but the it isn't like Pennsylvanians are making up the majority of the man camps, right now. With the advent of online public records, the same goes for the legal side of things, as well. An attorney in Texas can be licensed to practice in PA and get his title work from a land crew based out of Louisiana. The industry was already nomadic to begin with, but the lean times has upped that by many magnitudes higher.
  11. I made way more money in the industry under Obama/Biden than Trump/Pence. By a lot. Trump did nothing to bring the industry back and the average spot price wasn't much higher than $40, outside of a couple of spikes. I will repeat until I'm blue in the face that anyone who doesn't realize that the industry was healthier under Obama than Trump and truly believes that Biden will significantly damage the industry wasn't voting for Biden in the first place.
  12. Those of us who have been in O&G in the last two decades know that isn't possible over the next two decades. Those who truly believe that it's even possible to shut down the oil industry during Biden's potential 8 years weren't voting for Biden to begin with. They talked a big game in '08 about coming down hard on the oil industry and what happened? The exact opposite. I'm extremely surprised that you have as many Biden voters in your circle because my circle in the industry is a straight R ticket voter every election.
  13. I don't think so. I can tell you from personal experience that there are very few votes for Biden in the oil industry and the industries in its orbit in Texas. The people who will parrot this line that Biden is going to kill the oil industry already thought the Democrats were going to kill the oil business. They'll beat the drum hard on it, but the reality is that Biden isn't losing any ground over oil comments. That ground wasn't his to begin with.
  14. Trump acting like he's got Biden in a corner over the oil industry. Biden isn't gaining or losing any votes in the oil industry in this election. Also, an expansion of American oil production occurred under the Obama/Biden administration.
  15. I could go for a fried shrimp po boy with a nice remoulade sauce, right now.
  16. Welp, I hope some of those people who showed up for their hearings in the early days and now have obtained citizenship remember the low IQ dig.
  17. Damn, Trump pulling a play out of the early 2000s illegal immigration argument playbook.
  18. *Godwin's Law has entered the chat*
  19. Trump's gameplan not working out like he thought, so he's going back to what's comfortable.
  20. This might be where we go off the rails, here
  21. If Trump had acted like this during the first debate, his campaign might have been more competitive leading into early voting.
  22. Converse, Universal City, and Windcrest all have a significant black population. Windcrest is also full of olds, though. On the flip side of that, Converse and UC aren't what they used to be in the late 90s, early to mid 2000s after the base closures. Those areas have really gone down hill, so the majority of the white male population in that area is fitting the Trump demographic of non-college white males.
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