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Everything posted by Eastwood
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Robinhood traders right now:
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Yeah, as far as for what I'm preaching, I don't care about 2021. I'm going to cash out when what I think is going to happen happens, then reset my long position after it dips back down to sub $6. There is some near term upside to be had, long term uncertainty, but looking at their cash, current investors, and the new members of the board, I think something is in store for the future. If they make it through 2021, 2022 is going to be a fun year for the stock. Speaking of their investors, BlackRock owns 16.13% of all outstanding shares last month. Ryan Cohen, who is touted as the guy who beat Amazon at their own game in the pet supply space, now owns 9% of all outstanding shares. His Chewy co-founder was added to the board in March, as well as Reggie Fils-Aime, who is largely responsible for Nintendo's huge turnaround in North America. Michael Burry bought 5% back in December. Any time he gets mentioned, it gets an eye roll but all in all, GameStop is loaded for bear for what might be their last year to make it work. They've added influential people who have had great success before. Maybe GameStop is beyond saving, but the odds are insanely better than they were in 2019. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a sale of all existing real estate that they have left and a total rebrand, including a name change. We'll get some news of future plans next Wednesday, a little more in the Q3, and some time in 2021 we'll have the full reveal.
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Last night after the bell, GME filed an 8K showing that BoA just lent them another 9 figures. Shares popped 12%, dropped to only 2% this morning, and looking like it is going to climb higher. I know for the bulk of you guys in here that it is too much of a leap of faith to go long on GME, but there is profit to be made on it in the last quarter, being console launch and holiday season. Especially if it hits $10 and the Robinhood millionaires show up. Even more so if another round of direct stimulus is announced.
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All these nicknames that Don like to throw out are so easy to counter. If I were Biden's campaign manager, I'd have him walk out into the debate with a big stein mug. He'd then pour water out of the glass pitcher in one hand into the stein mug in the other and take a big gulp. Across the stage, Don will be two-handing a high ball glass, guaranteed. Then I'd get the social media department to get #DaintyDon or #SippyCupTrump trending.
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I worked for GameStop for a couple of years starting with just before the PS3 launch and into the beginnings of digital download. They were asleep at the wheel during that entire time when it came to digital presence and further damaged their brand by continuing to reduce the trade-in value of games. The margin on the used inventory was better than on the new inventory and instead of keeping it where it was, they continued to squeeze as much blood from that turnip as they could while, simultaneously, more and more games were being offered digitally. Players were getting less and less for their physical copies while physical copies were less and less playable right out of the box due to day 1 updates and installs. So, the reasonable and understandable position of the consumer became "why would I buy a physical copy of a game if I have to download half of it anyway and only get $15 for it even though a used copy is still $54.99 on their shelf?" While the consumer became disgruntled, GameStop continued to base manager pay heavily on hitting 3 metrics: trade-ins, preorders, and Game Informer subscriptions, which is now known as a Power Up membership or something like that. So when the consumer came into the store, they couldn't leave without being hard sold with the same old script. They'd come in empty handed, pick out some merchandise, and go to checkout. I little chit chat about the item they picked quickly followed up with "do you have any trade-ins for today? (they came in obviously empty handed but unless we ask literally everyone, someone up the food chain is going to give us a ton of shit) *rattle off the latest special about trade-ins* Anything you want to preorder? *talk about the cool new games coming out* Would you like to subscribe to Game Informer? You'll get 10% off of your used purchase today and for one year blah blah blah blah..." GameStop quickly lost all of its charm as a haven for gamers and became so obviously revenue driven that it is now viewed the way it is today, disdainfully corporate. It's only real value, now, is hardware and collectibles. That can change, however. Cut back B&M a ton because every strip mall does not need a store. There are GameStops literally across the freeway from each other in every major American city and they own very little of their own real estate. All those leases weigh heavy on the books. Stop all the hard selling. The Power Up program is useless because there is no brand loyalty left to speak of and its only real value is for trade-ins, which is dying. Game Informer doesn't give anything that the internet doesn't and people don't want to get magazines in the mail, anymore. Their best bet is to focus on obtaining some partnerships for exclusive hardware, merch, and collectibles. GameStop sat around while little upstarts like Optic Gaming, 100 Thieves, and NRG came in and locked down streamers and create their own merch. They let Amazon beat them to the punch when Amazon bought Justin.tv and made Twitch. Gaming is such a huge space that there is plenty of room for GameStop, but they need to find a way to make room for themselves. That starts with completely abandoning their business model. GameStop is essentially a blacksmith that needs to learn how to become a mechanic as soon as possible. I have a lot more on the industry, as a whole, but I don't want to derail the thread further. GME is up another 12%, shorted shares are 99% of float, it's only a matter of time that people start getting margin called and it's off to the races. Yesterday was the last day to get cheap OTM calls, probably.
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The bull argument for the holiday season is that there are not enough retailers to meet the demand for the new consoles and launch titles coming out, so GameStop still serves a purpose there. In the meantime, they have been shuttering stores to reduce overhead and expanding their business to niche collectibles, such as retro gaming clothing, figurines, etc. The writing was on the wall for their used game business model when digital downloads started becoming prominent, but instead of doubling down they are actually slowly shedding that side of the business and putting less emphasis on used games and using those resources to slowly build a better online presence. It also gives them more wiggle room to offer more competitive deals. For example, they were churning out better online deals than Amazon in April. What they do after the holiday season will be their make or break, in my opinion. The Chewy co-founder having a significant share of the company, and supposedly having a significant voice, has apparently given investors some confidence this morning. They have the inventory, especially since they are shuttering stores. All they really need is an overhaul of their online presence and Cohen has proven he has the know-how to make that happen. Also, full disclosure, I have some long shares and I bought OTM calls this morning. I'm up 10% on the shares and time will tell on the calls.
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Today's spike is because the co-founder of Chewy, Ryan Cohen, revealed that he owns 5.8 million shares, which equals about 9% ownership of GameStop, in his 13D filing.
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Poking my head in again to remind everyone that GME currently has OVER %100 short interest outstanding and is showing a decent 12% spike this morning. To put that into perspective, there are more shares borrowed to short than there are actual shares in existence. A lot of that short interest was accumulated when the stock was around $5 a share, so a bunch of people are underwater with their shorts. It is currently sitting at $6.8, right now, with earnings coming on 9/9 and a new round of consoles coming this holiday season, which will push numbers up further the following quarter. If pre-orders for the new consoles begin before the earnings call, those preliminary numbers would certainly be reported during the earnings call, which could also send the price higher. If a bunch of people get margin called over it, it could be a short squeeze of VW/Porsche proportions. There is absolutely zero, literally zero, share liquidity to cover a cascade of shorts being margin called.
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Trump retweeted a random QAnon account that was quoting a Facebook post that was misinterpreting CDC data and now political and societal tensions may get higher than ever over it. A lot of people are clinging to that 6% number, which is actually the number of deaths due to COVID without any other underlying diseases, and coming up with all kinds of rationalizations.
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Not sure what you're trying to gif over, here. NY failed miserably in the beginning. All this self patting on the back by them is like a plumber busting a pipe and then claiming he did a good job after fixing it. If NY is an example of anything, it's an example of how much damage can be done by being unable to make an unpopular decision that will save lives in the end.
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After watching what happened in places like NY and Italy, states put COVID measures like lockdown and masks into effect. Numbers stay low. People point to the low numbers as to why we don't need COVID measures. Government relaxes measures and numbers spike. Government reinstitutes measures. Numbers start to drop. People point to dropping numbers as to why we don't need measures. It's the damnedest thing.
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It's kind of like my dad saying my grandma died of a heart attack. Sure, she went into cardiac arrest and died, but she was in a hospice care facility after a long battle with lung cancer because she smoked a couple packs a day since she was 16. The heart might have given out, but let's not forget what got her there. It's just my dad's attempt to take away some of my grandma's agency in her own death. She slowly killed herself with her smoking habit. That's the reality and it's hard for my dad to deal with that. Therefore, the heart attack got her, not the cigs. I have a feeling that kind of mentality plays a lot into some people with COVID deaths.
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In times like these, my grandparents run theirs in the garage. However, their garage has a large window that they open all the way. It might be that a lot of people run their generators in the garage with not enough airflow to let the CO escape and it seeps into the house overnight.
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I wonder if the San Antonio area code combined with the no hablo was intentional.
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It would be hilarious if KA was the Rogue Melania twitter, but 2020 doesn't have those kind of surprises in store for us.
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Karnes?
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Due diligence on the leasehold side of these things really has become an exercise in determining just how bad the company rushed everything. The business model of the decade was to get as many barrels per day on the balance sheet as fast as possible so they could flip it. That has left a lot of legal landmines that were buried and forgotten.
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Field of battle?
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Never saw a SFOD patch on an Army football helmet. Wonder if that is a green to gold guy.
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With COVID, I might as well live in Samoa. All online now, anyways.
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7 run lead isn't big enough to bitch about that. He lets that one slide and takes, gets out, scores no one, and the Rangers score 4 in the bottom of the 8th, it's a 3 run game with an inning to go. Complaining about that is like complaining about a team throwing deep passes while up by 21 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter. There's still enough game left to be played for that win to still be in a little doubt. Especially in the pros.
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After trying to transition to a similar career and not enjoying it, I decided to get a law degree to give me more options. It's a gamble, but at least I'm not twiddling my thumbs and checking the price of oil twice a day, right now. I have over 10 years on the land side of things and experience in other legal areas of real estate, so I've already been receiving a good bit of interest from potential employers. All I need to do now is pass the bar exam.
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That was me on 01/02/2016. Thankfully, I made sure that didn't happen this time.
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I think we need to conserve as many natural resources on federal lands as possible. It's not needed, right now. It might be needed later. Why tap it now? If some other black swan event swings supply the other way, we're going to need it then.
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