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Eastwood

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Eastwood

  1. For parents of middle schoolers and high schoolers with gaming PCs or XBox, the game Sea of Thieves has announced they will be free to play for the next 5 days. It is an absolute time suck and will keep them busy. It is a multiplayer with communication, so they may experience some foul language from other players, but those settings can be adjusted to where they don't receive communications from strangers.
  2. Stay safe, stay calm, make good choices. A lot of us have been in this business over a decade. There will be a place for us when the dust settles. Just keep your powder dry until then.
  3. We've got 13 days left under the current OPEC+ agreement. Best case scenario is both Putin and MBS see the light during that time and come together on a new OPEC+ agreement. Worst case scenario is that these guys have made it personal. Then we'll be hurting as long as both of them is still in charge. My bet is on MBS going first, for sure.
  4. If Russia and SA pump at full capacity playing their game of chicken? I think we could hover around $20 until one of them blinks. Then we'll have a lot of oversupply to dig through with whatever demand is left. The more this all plays out, the more I think they bail way sooner than later. They were barking at each other before the shit really hit the fan. I wonder how much of where we stand today, as an entire world, entered into Putin's calculus when he took the first shot across the bow by telling SA to take a walk on extended cuts. After Putin pissed them off, they countered by saying they'll open ever spigot sticking out of the sand starting April 1. Both of those ideas aren't looking so hot now.
  5. Almost all major manufacturers are coming out with an EV model this year or next. They aren't going to just dump all the marketing and R&D because of it. Hell, even Hummer is releasing an electric model. EVs are no longer priced as luxury vehicles, especially the models on the horizon. The days of the Tesla Roadster, Model S, and whatever letter they gave their SUV are over. A popular product at an affordable price compared to ICE models that are slowly becoming unpopular. I think a lot of people in the industry are seriously underestimating how bad a large chunk of millenials and nearly all generation Y and zoomers are wanting an electric vehicle over an ICE vehicle. Generation Y and Zoomers are within 5 years of having the purchasing power to do it, too.
  6. I think the fundamentals are showing, and some articles (including CNBC) are indicating, that we aren't going to break out above $40 for the foreseeable future. IF Russia and SA truly do flood the market next month, we're going to probably see 30 year lows in price that might linger just long enough (5 years or more) for electric vehicles to get significant market penetration and other renewables to get a lot of steam before the economy recovers from all of this. There is some simmering fear that we may have hit peak demand. But if one thing is absolutely certain, it's that people are shitty at predicting what the oil market will do. Iran and SA could start tearing each other apart in a hot war and send prices spiking to $100 in 2022 for all we know.
  7. Every generation has their life-altering event. We had 9/11. Let's hope this is her one and only.
  8. I'm getting a slight cough that has me getting all paranoid. We went to Hawaii last week in a whole family trip. If it was a trip paid for by me, we wouldn't have gone. But here I am now with most likely seasonal allergies being paranoid about every cough that happens once an hour.
  9. It only took 2 days trapped in the house to realize how being able to go out and grab something real quick was seriously taken for granted. If I feel like a certain beer, food, or item, I go out and get it. Not anymore. Now, I have to go in and consciously focus on not touching anything I don't have to, keeping my hands off my face, keeping my distance from people, getting the item, sanitize the item when I get home, wash my hands, and then have a small nagging worry in the back of my head if that was the time I went out and brought it home. It doesn't take up a whole lot of my head space, but enough to not make trips worth it. My power supply for my PC absolutely died yesterday right when the work day started. Ordered a new one from Best Buy instead of Altex because Best Buy was closer. The parking lot was half full and people are just walking around the store browsing. Not there for any other reason, which is asinine at this point. Go there to pick it up and wait in line at the very end of the line area to make room for the person at the counter. Person is clueless and walks away to talk on the phone about what he needs to pick up. I get waved up, I'm ready with everything I need, and the dude who just got out of line walks up and gets literally shoulder to shoulder with me. Just complete idiocy. And those people, who have zero disregard for what is going on in the world right now, are everywhere. The point is: stay home unless absolutely necessary. The quicker we all do that, the quicker all of this is over with. I work from home and needed that power supply. If I didn't need it, I wouldn't have gone out there. I immediately regretted doing so the moment that goober decided he wanted to be at the counter the same time as me. One sneeze right there is all it would take. Avoid idiots. Stay home.
  10. The Saudis have more people to get under control and a more expensive welfare state, as far as spending goes. Putin's handful of oligarchs to keep happy is smaller in number than the Saudi Royal Family. Also, SA is more likely to go to war. They are an oil economy surrounded by other oil economies who all hate each other. Specifically, Iran. It's not a matter of if, but when, at this point. Russia's only skin in the game is their market share and being able to squeeze the EU on their natural gas supply, which the US is very slowly trickling into with the new transportation methods. Never get into a war of attrition with Russia. That shit is damn near a third their national identity with the other two thirds being how they handle winter and vodka.
  11. We resume classes on Zoom on Wednesday. Profs getting settled in with it today and tomorrow.
  12. It does not impact and probably for the best. Fortnite is just fine for preteens outside of the random person that might end up in the squad and uses foul language. Just turn off voice communication all together if that is a concern and they can play just fine.
  13. The son's birthday got canceled, so I bought Mario Party as his gift, got some cupcakes, and we're going to break it out today. Lots of standing and movement, so I hope that takes care of the rainy days. We walked to the small grocery store yesterday and killed 2 hours that way. Now we plan on only walking the neighborhood, as we are stocked up on calories and we are now full self-quarantine. Everything that I have has moved 100% online, so the vast majority of my time will be spent on this 1/4 acre lot.
  14. I canceled my son's 5th birthday that was going to be with family. Half of the attendees would be over 60, having multiple sets of grandparents, and one set of very mobile and capable great grandparents in their late 80's. He was bummed out, but he'd even more bummed if we were taking him to his great grandfather's funeral because we didn't cancel one birthday party. We'll do some cupcakes and his big gift tomorrow. We'll do a joint party with his little sister in June if all this blows over by then.
  15. The meat of my question was more along the lines of why would a company keep their end of a contract that forces them to pay twice market price. For some companies, it might be cheaper to breach then buy at spot price. But, again, I know close to nothing about that side of the business.
  16. Disclaimer: I know very little about hedge contracts. What is the likelihood of companies committing an efficient break of a hedge contract? Some companies are hedged at $60 for millions of barrels.
  17. No, what you really did was introduce a bigger, badder monster to your stomach to destroy the stomach bug. You basically fought Stomach Bug Godzilla with Food Court Chinese Mothra.
  18. "I've been cooped up all day, I should go to the mall" is definitely a boomer move. What is this, 1992?
  19. Hold on to your butts.
  20. I'm flying to Hawaii in a couple of weeks with a 4 and 2 year old. It would be great if the flight was half empty and I could get the kids away from everyone for everyone else's sanity.
  21. Probably worse than that. Asia is the biggest chunk of new demand growth, followed by India, IIRC
  22. Another thing that scared me about WWZ was how he portrayed the outbreak going full swing. It was moderate news coverage and then absolute chaos within a few hours.
  23. Black Death knocked out 25% of the world population. That would be 1.75 billion today.
  24. I've been a lifelong baseball fan. The only reason I don't participate in baseball talk on this board is because baseball fans are the worst, closely followed by college football fans. I only have enough energy to argue with one or the other and I choose college football. It would be exhausting beyond belief to spend my time arguing about both.
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