Reminds me of an experience I had with a stonk (nasdaq, so maybe not really a stonk) some years ago.
Cousin tipped me off on said stonk on the eve of FDA approval for a drug that was effective at dosing iron to chronic kidney disease patients through dialysate. Seemed like a good drug within that sphere, with a need. And potentially elsewhere, as iron is notoriously difficult to achieve uptake in anemia and similar patients.
So, I made a tidy sum on approval, but held back a few hundred shares to see where it went. Several analysts following the stock long and short, mostly analyzing efficacy and management, cash burn rate etc.
Sales were not forthcoming. The analysts pontificated on why. The company tried to get CMS to approve it and put it in the "dialysis bundle," but failed.
For all of this, none of the fucking analysts pointed out and I finally stumbled on it myself: 95% of dialysis patients in the United States are on Medicare. CKD/ESRD and ALS qualify you for Medicare regardless of your age. So, 95% plus of dialysates are purchased/paid for/approved by Medicare. If you don't get it in the bundle, it's never going to sell. Apparently, AMGEN getting EPO into the dialysis bundle was what kicked off their success.
The stock has now been delisted.
I lost a lot of faith in the "price discovery efficiency" of the stock market based on this. Other than general trends via funds, it's fucking gambling and no one but insiders know more than anyone else.