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Texas Jeff

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Everything posted by Texas Jeff

  1. The "there are only seven notes in this song" is what Longhorn Band and many other SWC bands sang in the stands when SMU played their fight song. Ah, the SWC, where did it go? Sing along the next time you hear SMU play their fight song....
  2. Last May Abbott "reopened" Texas. By mid-June he was looking for an out. Man, just when numbers were on the way down and everyone had water and electricity again...
  3. They probably had a phone, but it was rotary dial and no one knew how to make a call.
  4. I don't know the words either, however I do know: There are only seven notes in their song There are only seven notes in their song There are only seven notes There are only seven notes There are only seven notes in their song.
  5. Currently 39% of Texans 65+ have had a 1st shot.
  6. Here's a look at the Texas vaccine allocation vs reality through the end of February. Solid lines show what was allocated, dashed lines show what actually happened. Allocations run ahead of shots. You can see that Texas was catching up with the allocated amounts through mid Feb, got knocked back by the storm, but is now getting back on track.
  7. What's the demographic like at the UT site? Average age and obvious co-morbidity or not? I am registered with UT and willing to wait my turn but it would be nice to know how they are selecting people and about what age they are currently inviting, so that I could judge my place in line.
  8. Some of the data you want is here: https://www.dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid19/COVID-19-Vaccine-Data-by-County.xls You can see how many 1A and 1B, total allocations, people with one shot and fully vaccinated, over 65, people with a medical condition, all broken down by county.
  9. Texas Week 12 is out: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week12.pdf In Travis Co, APH stays the same at 12k. UT ramping up, now over 9k shots per week. Seton really back in the game with 14k Moderna. This is the first week that Travis Co's first shot weekly allocation has cleared the bar to vaccinate everyone over 16 in six months. Some other counties in central Texas are pretty far behind, particularly Bastrop, so these extra shots should help the region catch up with state averages.
  10. Texas Week 11 is out. Welcome to Texas, FEMA... https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week11.pdf FEMA will be setting up sites at Jerry World, Fair Park, and NRG Stadium. 42k doses for DFW, 42K for Houston. UT and Seton getting more allocation in Austin, along with some other non-APH sites. Shots at Fair Park cost 10 tickets and come with a fried item of your choice.
  11. Best you can do today is watch the control room sweat it out. Here's Curiosity's view of landing on Mars, from 2012. I think the thing dropping at the beginning is the heat shield.
  12. Earth again invades Mars today, good luck JPL and NASA: https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/ Landing is around 2:55 central time this afternoon. Here's a preview of the landing: This rover has a drone helicopter attached. They are going to attempt powered autonomous flight on Mars. JPL is no place for the meek.
  13. Interesting, I stand corrected... Right now they show 1000 first shots in inventory, I was going on that. They really need to be aiming for the 5k mark per day county wide for first shots, for all of the hubs in the county -- 35k first shots per week. A capacity of 10k shots per day. However you get there, hubs, HEB, whatever. 35k first shots per week gets you to 100% of the over 16 population in Travis Co in 30 weeks from when you started, which is around August or so. Right now Travis Co has a seven day average of 1841 per day, or about 12,900 per week. They need to double or triple capacity and hope that the vaccine supplies increase, and be ready when they do.
  14. I am pretty sure they are getting rid of their shots. I don't think they have enough allocation to service the area at the same rate that other areas of Texas are getting shots.
  15. Some milestones: Over 1/8th of Texans over 16 have had a first shot About 1/3rd of Texans over 65 have had a first shot Senior Texans are still tracking to be 50% first shots around March 6th and 100% first shots around May 1st. They are still getting about half the vaccine statewide. It will be interesting to see at what point the senior curve starts to flatten; so far it's a straight line. The date for Texans over 16 has pulled in a bit, now June 18th for 50% first shots and Dec 1st for 100% first shots. Travis Co is not doing as well as the statewide numbers. Seniors are getting a lower share of vaccine and Travis Co is overall about a week behind the state averages. Travis Co has fallen a week behind in a month of giving shots, so the 50% and 100% numbers are pushing way out. Travis Co could use additional allocations, either more to UT (Dell Med) or an additional vaccination site for APH, or give vax to local pharmacies.
  16. Did any of the city officials appear to be speaking from Cabo?
  17. 50% of seniors will have at least 1 shot by March 3rd if the past 7 day rate holds until then. Add 3-4 weeks for "both shots" dates.
  18. Texas first shots crossed 10% today, seniors with first shots are at 26%. At the 7 day rate, seniors will reach 50% coverage on March 3rd, everyone over 16 will get to 50% on June 7th. I'm using estimated 2021 Texas population -- the official websites are using a 2018 number.
  19. There are now are more people in Texas who have received their first shot than have had a confirmed case of COVID.
  20. Congrats to the UT CS admits! If your kid wanted UT CS but didn't get in and is dissapointed, fear not. Encourage them to go to another school and code their ass off. After they are done coding for the day, code some more. Learn the tools. Crank out some projects. I interviewed a lot of CS grads and some really could code and some really could not. It might be a little harder to get that first job but a little hustle and sweat will go a long way. Oh, and if your kid has a dream company, tell them to go for it to the point of annoying hiring managers. Eventually they will find one that may want them on the team.
  21. They said they have 188k that are eligible now, but they have a "points" system based on criteria and they email only the people on the list that have points over a threshold. In theory anyone could go claim an appointment if you are eligible but there is no way I have found to claim on if you are 1B and you have not received the "preferred" email. They are not disclosing the algorithm that determines points and there is no way to find out how many points you have.
  22. Regarding the olds .... yeah a lot of olds I know have found a shot and many of them have younger people advocating for them. The ones I know are still connected to the younger generations. Many aren't. The reality is that only 25% of Texans over 80 have had a shot. There are six DKRs of 80+ folks yet to have a shot, more than three million to go over 65. About 50% of the vaccine is going to the senior population across the state and less than 50% in Travis County. They are getting more than their share of the vaccine because of their age, but it's not over for them. Everyone over 65 should have a chance to get a first shot by maybe mid-May. At some point the state needs to focus on these hard to find elderly. They can't compete with younger people for online appointments. They may be shut-ins but they are all one fall away from being in a hospital.
  23. Here's a chart that is my argument for doing it by age, if your goal is to prevent death. I created this from data in late December. Vertical axis is percent of population over 16, horizontal axis is percent of death. For example, the "80+" dot shows that people 80 and over represent about 4% of Texans over 16, but about 34% of all COVID deaths. Just doing the 75+ population should take out half of the death. Get to 50+ and you cut out over 90%. Healthcare workers helping COVID patients should have gone first. After that, just create large vax centers and put a big sign up that says "80 and over". When the line goes down, lower the age on the sign. If the sign in Amarillo says "50 and over" and the sign in Austin still says "80 and over", then give Austin more vax. Do something special for the homebound and hard to reach. You could even have an express line that says "80 and over" when the regular line says "70 and over", for those that can't wait in line. Keep the express line age high enough so that the wait is no more than 10 minutes.
  24. APH and UT are getting almost 100% of the vaccine sent to Travis County. Last week it was 98% of all vaccines sent to the county.
  25. My charts are based on 100% of Texans over 16 years of age. No phases or people who want it or don't want it, just 100% of those over 16.
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