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Texas Jeff
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One more chart, showing overall vaccination rates for Texas. The yellow line shows percentage of Texas over 65 that have had their first shot. The blue line shows the overall percentage of Texans over 16 that have had one shot. The orange line shows the percentage of Texans over 16 that have had two shots. Using the most recent 7 day pace, we will vaccinate: Texans over 65: 50% in 37 days (March 9th) and 100% in 98 days (May 10th). Texans over 16: 50% in 149 days (June 30th) and 100% in 328 days (December 25th).
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Here's a peek at vaccination rates as of yesterday. The solid lines show vaccine allocations and the dashed lines show shots in arms. The blue lines are first shots and the orange lines are second shots. You can see the dashed blue line slightly pulling towards the solid blue line. That is great, it means that we are getting a little more efficient at getting first shots in arms. The delay between allocation and vaccination is shrinking. The second shot line headed up right on schedule. Again, that's good because it means that vaccination centers were able to manage the increased second shot volume while also doing better on first shot volume.
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Man, Collin County has five hubs all working off the same waitlist. They are getting almost 43,000 doses next week. Everyone on the waitlist evidently has a number and you can search the waitlist. They are about a week behind the state average but at this rate they are going to sprint ahead... Congrats to them...
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I thought about this a bit today and ended up on "that makes sense". Give some more vaccine to the areas that are hard to serve. Not a ton more, but maybe a little more. If you get it in a rural area, you are more likely to end up at a crappy hospital. An outbreak can overrun it pretty quick. You have to drive farther to get to medical stuff. Urban areas are a little more flexible. Hospitals are not as far apart and maybe can lean on each other a bit more. I don't know, maybe my thinking is flawed. But maybe it makes sense to try to put out the fire in hard to reach areas quickly and then focus more effort on the cities. it is a little crazy to think that Austin may be shortchanged now because we have put more effort into masking, resulting in less disease. I was really hoping Austin would get a 3rd hub this week not under control of the city or the university, but alas there it is....
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Dell Med (UT) is running out by mid-week, they are kicking butt. Austin Public Health is getting through their allotment by the end of the week, people are having trouble scheduling appointments and their website/scheduling/selection does not appear scalable, but I have heard that the Delco site is pretty well run once you get there. All of the other 300 or so Travis County possible providers could help if they had vaccine, which they don't.
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Texas 1B definition is: 1. People 65 years of age and older OR 2. People 16 years of age and older with at least one chronic medical condition that puts them at increased risk for severe illness from the virus that causes COVID-19, such as but not limited to: Cancer Chronic kidney disease COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease or cardiomyopathies Solid organ transplantation Obesity and severe obesity (body mass index of 30 kg/m2 or higher) Pregnancy Sickle cell disease Type 2 diabetes mellitus
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In the US: Pfizer: 4.37 million doses per week allocated for next week Moderna 5.78 million doses per week allocated for next week Over the last four week of allocation (which is roughly a month, add a bit) Pfizer: 17.1 million doses Moderna: 18.4 million doses Each person requires two doses.
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Yes, early on. Probably not as much in the last week. Hard to tell. To date, only about 40% of the shots have gone to those over 65 in Texas, and 35% in Travis County. But over the last week, about 51% statewide have gone to seniors, and 46% in Travis County. Four weeks ago, the number was probably 10% of shots to seniors, 90% to everyone else. It was defiantly 1A healthcare workers plus others who were in position to get it thanks to privilege or connections.
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The numbers include everyone vaccinated in Texas. They come from ImmTrac2, the statewide tracking system. I assume everyone getting vaccinated is having their data put into that system. I am getting my data here: https://tabexternal.dshs.texas.gov/t/THD/views/COVID-19VaccineinTexasDashboard/Summary?%3Aorigin=card_share_link&%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Amobile=true&%3AdeepLinkingDisabled=y For example, the Travis County numbers are not the same as the numbers for the Austin Public Health hub. Travis County residents can go elsewhere for shots and the Austin Public Health hub can serve people from outside Travis Co. The numbers I am using are where people live who got the shot, not where they got the shot or how they got the shot.
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I've been looking at the vaccine data statewide to try to determine if seniors are really getting priority. After about a week, it's about a 50/50 mix of those 65 and older and those below 65. Travis County has similar numbers. Statewide, Texas is averaging about 28k shots to those over 65 each day. At that rate, we have 60 days to go until 50% over 65 get their first shot (projected March 28th) and 120 days until 100% get first shots (projected May 27th).
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A lot of Tarrytown is already SF-3 (duplexing allowed). The code allows more density in Tarrytown today than in many other parts of the city. Try suggesting SF-3 zoning to other parts of the city that are SF-2 or SF-1 (less or no duplexing) and watch the rebellion occur. Even if you increase zoning in Tarrytown, it's not on the new rail lines and the bus service to downtown that was in place has been removed. You are going to get car-based living. If you wanted to allow more housing in Tarrytown today and the city actually talked to the residents rather than just impose a map on them, you might discover some areas of possible density. There is a biological lab and low density married student housing on Lake Austin Blvd. Residents want to keep Muny and maybe think about ways to expand it beyond just golf. The Austin State School has a huge chunk of low density land and I think they are down to a few hundred residents. Camp Mabry just north of the neighborhood has room to march and land helicopters. You could build on all or some of that and connect it with buses up and down Exposition that ran into downtown. There are reasons that these areas stay as they are but if you just want density .... you could do it without tearing down the neighborhood today. There is honestly land all over town, including a really empty Robinson Ranch with rail already running through it and a 15 year old zoning agreement that allows almost unlimited density covering the land. The rail connects to downtown and Leander and is a short distance from Apple. But the city council just does not consider solutions like this.
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I am amazed that people below the poverty line can live in Austin. If they own a million dollar house and are poor, man, take the capital gain and enjoy life somewhere else. If they are renting a million dollar house ... yeah, they aren't renting a million dollar house. Many people that can't afford where they are living move someplace cheaper. Sounds crazy but it happens. They don't just say "Well, I guess I'm homeless." It sucks for people that can't afford Austin, but many people moving here think it's cheap compared to where they were.
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Tiny correction -- the petition validation stuff happens at the city clerk level. They do indeed try to toss out petitions if they can, in my opinion. The standard operating procedure is to first try to invalidate the petition, then have the city council claim that they can't support it because it is illegal, then wait for a judge to step in and say you have to put it on the ballot, then make the ballot language so confusing that no one can understand it, then find funding for a campaign against the petition so that voters say no. That always works. Dana DeBeauvoir is actually at the forefront of voting reform. Wired did an article on her efforts before the last election. Not saying she may not have been involved in hijinks before, but her recent efforts seem well meaning.
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HHS released allocations for next week. Texas's Pfizer allocation stayed constant at around 165k first shots but the Moderna allocation rose from 167k first shots this week to 220k next week, an increase of 53k first shots next week. That's an extra half-DKR of folks that will get it next week. Texas has now been granted allocations to eventually cover 13% of the population, even if no further allocations were made.
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Sometime today, the number of people in Travis Co that have received their first dose will exceed the number of people in Travis Co that have had a confirmed case of COVID.
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From my googling and reading, I think the way it is works is: 1. Sites are putting in requests for doses, so a hub might request 10,000 doses for next week. Hubs are supposed to have the capacity to inject those doses during the week, not to hold on to doses. 2. The state is granting requests via their weekly vaccine list. 3. During the week after the grant, those quantities of doses arrive ... probably shipped directly from the manufacturer. There are kits that come with it with all of the stuff you need to inject the vax. 4. Three (Pfizer) or four (Moderna) weeks later, a second identical shipment arrives for second doses. So the doses are probably coming directly from the manufacturer but the trigger for the whole thing is to get on the state allocation list. The state isn't getting a giant bulk drop and then parcelling it out to the sites.
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Over the past 7 days, Texas has averaged around 56k-60k "first shots" per day. Texas has given 478k shots in the last seven days (first and second shots), about 68k shots per day. The number is growing as more second shots arrive. Eventually the second shot number should roughly equal the first shot number if vaccine allocations remain constant.
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Texas Week 7 is out: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week7.pdf Very similar to Week 6 for the hubs. That is good because the hubs need predictable supply to just keep going. In Travis Co, if you don't have a friend at the DSHS Central Warehouse, or are not affiliated with UT, or are not 65+ or don't have insurance, you really need to look elsewhere. I *hope* those with the vax in Travis Co are focused on the 65+ category.
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That article said he moved to Bee Cave, but he was complaining about Belterra and NW Austin. I think that dude never figured out where he was. He complained about open spaces while being just a few minutes from the Wildflower Center, the greenbelt, Zilker, Barton Springs, the hike and bike trail. Not sure he looked that hard...
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I was just looking at that this morning. In Texas, 65+ accounts for about 72% of all deaths. 80+ is about half the death. If you think about a little herd immunity effect once you start vaccinating all of the seniors, you are probably right with the 80% number. I don't have trend data yet, but I can say that in Texas, about 12.7% of folks over 65 have already had at least one shot (about 480k out of 3.77M seniors). Consider that the first two weeks were just Phase 1A, so really we have been working on the 65+ group for 3-4 weeks. You can project that out, but it's going to take a while. Even if Texas just focused on 65+ and continued to receive about 330k first shots per week, it would take 10-11 weeks to get first shots to 100% of the 65+ group.
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At current 7 day average first shot vaccination rates, Texas will cross 50% of the over 16 population on July 21st and 100% next January 18th. Believe it or not, that's progress. About ten days ago, the 100% date was in June 2022.
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HEB's website is awesome. Simple to use, easy to understand, appears to scale, appears to function...
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The allocation numbers are from the feds for Texas, going back to week 1. I got them from the HHS website. I think they reflect all doses manufactured and allocated, but I am not certain. The feds may have held back some for themselves. The "actual" numbers are from the Texas dashboard.
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OK, a little chart for today. I have been tracking vaccine allocation to Texas and the amounts vaccinated as reported by the state. This chart shows you a solid blue line showing total first shot federal allocations for Texas, combining Pfizer and Moderna. The date on the chart is the first date of the week of the allocation, so the earliest possible data that shots could have been received. The vertical axis shows the percent of Texans that could have been covered by the allocations. The dashed blue line shows actual first shot results, shots in arms reported to the tracking database, and then shown on the dashboard. The orange lines show the same thing for the second shot, solid orange represents allocations and dashed orange is shots in arms, reported and shown on the tracking dashboard. The lines go flat on the top because I assume that there will be no more allocations other than what Texas has been promised so far. That's probably not true, they will probably continue upward. There will always be a lag between shot allocations and shots reported to the dashboard. Right now the lag is pretty big, like 2.5 weeks. The state can narrow the gap by getting better at giving shots, but ultimately can't go any faster unless allocations increase.
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In theory a second shot should follow the first shot at the same place you got the first shot. Three weeks later for Pfizer, four weeks later for Moderna.
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