Texas Jeff

Texas is doing a pretty good job on this, at the dashboard previously linked. You can click on any county in Texas and it will give you the stats just for that county, or click on nothing and get the stats for Texas as a whole. Since the vaccine is being distributed almost per-capita to the states, I would expect the the numbers for any state are about the same. The only variable is how many people choose to get vaccinated. The data for vaccine distribution is pretty new. I expect that some of the national aggregators will eventually include that in their websites. I like to follow Covid Act Now, which shows how things are in each state and county. They don't have vaccine data now but I bet they will include that in the future. It will be pretty cool to see the colors start to change on the national map as the number of vaccinations reaches critical mass.

I just realized that list does not include about 125,000 Pfizer first shot doses headed to long term care facilities. Hang in there Grandma, help is on the way!

Texas has allocated vaccine for week two, adding Moderna to the mix: https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/updates/COVIDVaccineAllocation-Week2.pdf The Pfizer vaccine is going almost exclusively to hospitals and the Moderna vaccine is being split up all across Texas at mostly local providers. It is great that they are getting it to so many places but I wonder how they are going to coordinate the vaccine phases with most sites having such small quantitates. This seems like a week where a lot of pharmacies and clinics are going to get their first few shots and learn how to distribute the vaccine. Travis Co is getting 16600 Moderna and 2900 Pfizer doses, compared with about 13600 Pfizer last week. At this pace, by the end of the year around 5% of residents will have had a first shot and more people will have had a first shot than have tested positive for COVID. Travis Co needs to receive 40,000 first shot doses per week to get it to everyone over 16 in the first six months of the year. This is a good start; hopefully the allocation rate can continue to climb over the coming weeks.

Hopefully the data is just lagging reality. Some unfortunate people have to enter data into a tracking system for each dose given. Texas allocated 224,500 doses to providers during week one. So the number of delivered doses should come up to that value pretty soon, and the number of vaccinated should rise to about that number a few days later. If it does not, something's broken or people aren't getting vaccinated.

Texas DSHS has a vaccine dashboard up.

Washington's IHME has a projection: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Using that model, deaths start to drop in February. By March 1st deaths are around 1300/day with the vax vs 2000/day without. By April 1 we are around 400/day vs 1300/day without. Universal masking could really cut death down in January if implemented now. Infections follow the same Feb/Mar drop. The projected infection rate is cut in half by April 1st. Current projections show a max strain on our healthcare system in late January.

Gonna try again at 4:40 CST

https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/

Yes, I think you are correct ... insurance or some other program is likely to cover the admin fee in many cases. Stephanie Hayden was asked a question like "Is the vaccine free and who is going to pay for giving the injection?" and she answered something like "the vaccine is free but the provider can charge an admin fee". She didn't go into who ultimately would pay that fee. Sorry if I mislead anyone...

From the talk I watched, most places will be pharmacies or hospitals. Maybe you will make an appointment online, then go in for your first shot, then get a reminder when it is time to go back for your second shot. You are likely to only be exposed to a few people at the pharmacy. CVS has described this as a likely process. Booking these online appointments might be the 2021 version of searching for toilet paper last spring. Maybe there will be a process for determining if you "qualify" for a shot ... maybe there will be enforcement of the priority groups or maybe it will be on the honor system. Who knows? It would be nice to sort these things out. Our leaders should ensure that no doses are wasted because shots were available but no one was there to get it and the vaccine spoiled.

The Travis County Medical Society and Dell Medical School hosted a town hall on vaccines featuring local leaders Mark Escott and Stephanie Hayden. It's about 30 minutes of powerpoint followed by 30 minutes of Q&A. Some takeaways: They are developing a points based ranking system to determine priority for the vaccine -- it is still under development. They didn't specify if this was countywide, statewide, or nationwide. The vaccine will be free, but providers may charge an admin fee similar to an office visit to cover their costs. The amount might be set by the provider, still TBD. The AstraZeneca vaccine is cheaper than the mRNA vaccines (like $4 a dose vs $20 a dose) and may be available in higher quantities worldwide. Guidance for those under 18 and those who are pregnant/lactating is not complete. Maybe adults get vax but kids do not? I would not expect large vaccination centers. The state is enrolling existing providers (pharmacies, hospitals, etc) instead.

The SWC was awesome. You could get a few buddies together, drive to almost any game in the league, see the game and find a place to eat, then get back in the car and drive back. Gas was a buck a gallon and tickets were cheap. We did not play in Iowa or Kansas or friggin' West Virginia. A&M, Arkansas and OU on the schedule every year in every sport. Somehow we screwed that up.

Cabo Steve. Dude held an outdoor wedding for 20 people at a time when gatherings were supposed to be limited to 10, breaking an order he signed.

People living in these facilities have had a pretty miserable life since March. My parents are in an independent living place, a mix of small homes and apartments with central common areas. Pre-COVID, it was a very social place. Much of the living space is common and a lot of the apartments are small one-bedrooms. The common spaces have been closed during COVID and a lot of the residents have spent most of their lives in their tiny apartments. They get food delivered to their room twice a day but that's about it. Every doctor trip is a chance for one of them to catch it and maybe spread it and maybe die. One of my parents' friends took just one trip out to see family with masks and distance and it wasn't enough ... she was dead less than two weeks later. Vaccinating the staff and the residents of this place would change their world. Show up, hit 'em all on one day, show up three weeks later, hit 'em all again, wait a week or so .... and these people can all go outside their rooms and see each other again without as much fear of dying from COVID or killing their friends. Mentally, it would be a huge boost for everyone living there. Yes, we all want to do these things too but I can go for a drive, or a walk, or even risk going to a restaurant if I want. Many of these folks can not, and they've been stuck with the same four walls since March with little contact with friends or family. Yes they are old and yes they are more likely to die anyway, but I am willing to wait a few weeks longer if they can move closer to the front of the line.

The Texas antibody testing has been consistently showing around 15% of those tested for antibodies actually having antibodies, since about Aug 1st. And that's kind of a self-selected population, since the tested people thought they might have them. 5x of the Texas cases is about 19% of the population. Use the 5x number or the antibody number, it still isn't enough for 70% herd immunity. Texas hospitalization data shows that the slope of the increase in the November wave was less than the July wave. Maybe this is antibodies at work or some other factor.

Yep, I think this is correct ... Travis County has to get back to Stage 1 to remove the mask requirement which means close to zero average new hospital admits over the past seven days. Counties and cities have their own requirements. So we are likely to all stop wearing masks at the same time, but it might be county by county and city by city, at least in Texas.

I was curious about how big these vaccine shipments might be so I looked it up. Pfizer's ultra-cold vaccine comes five doses to a vial, 175 vials to a tray, up to five trays per box. So one box can hold up to 4,375 doses. To get everyone vaccinated in Travis County in six months, we would need about three boxes per day of vaccine. The Army logistics general suggested that cities might get weekly deliveries, so maybe we would get 20 boxes per week. The vaccine is going to come with supply kits. Each kit has materials for 100 injections. No idea how big they are, but we will need about 130 kits a day in Travis County, or about 920 a week. Of course, the kits need no refrigeration, just a closet somewhere. The kit supply could run a bit ahead of the vaccine supply, so long as you had storage. This stuff just isn't that big. Assuming we can get those quantities of vaccine and kits, I think the biggest problem will be local distribution. Who is allowed to get a dose, who needs a second dose, how to sort out all of the super cold vials to get to multiple distribution sites, making sure you have kits and vials at the same place. To me, a big central vaccination site makes the most sense, maybe with some mobile trucks driving around to nursing homes and other less mobile populations. The Erwin Center would be a great spot.

Another angle ...

The NY Times has a great vaccine tracker. Make sure you're figuring in second shots when you count doses vs people who are immune. When Pfizer says they have 20 million doses I think they mean they can make 10 million people about 90-95% immune. Hopefully Pfizer and Moderna can get the run rates up, at least for a year or two. Pfizer and BioNTech have a partnership with a goal of producing 1.3 billion doses in 2021, which is just over 100 million/month. Moderna is a much smaller company. Not all of the production will go to the US. The rest of the world wants this crap to end too. So, yep there are likely to be other vaccines out in addition to the ones with results already announced and hopefully they all can scale.

OK, some numbers: Thinking a bit about logistics, we just had an election in Travis County and about 610k voted. To get to 100% COVID vaccinated in Travis County, we're going to have to hit 1.3 millon people 2 times each. That's about 2.6 million shots ... about 4x the number of people who voted. Travis County set up 37 early voting places for about three weeks for the 2020 vote. There were lines, but the lines were not that bad. If we had a goal of getting 100% inoculated over six months at 37 sites county-wide, that would mean about 380 shots per day per site, say 400 per site. Put 10 competent injectors at each site plus another 10 people to process paperwork and each person would have to inject 40 people per day, about one every 12 minutes for an 8 hour shift. That's 800 people county-wide just to inject shots and handle paperwork, for six months. Maybe another 200 people to handle receiving the vaccine, mixing it up, and keeping the sites stocked with stuff. A big effort but doable. The county would be consuming about 15,000 shots a day at that rate and 7,500 people per day would be newly immune, starting about a month after this starts. The US population is about 328 million. About 1 in 257 live in Travis County. So, for Travis to get 15,000 shots per day we need to be making 3.8 million shots a day nationwide, or about 118 million per month. Hmmm, that sounds a little high. I'm not sure what Pfizer/Moderna are going to be able to pump out but maybe that's in the ballpark, maybe by February. So, that's what it looks like with 100% vaccination from January 1st to July 1st. Seems possible. If 30% don't take the vaccine, lines are going to dry up sometime in April. Anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to get one then. We will reach 50% vaccinated around April 1st, and 50% "immune" around a month after that. Activities should shift outside again by March, which will slow the spread. Life looks good starting sometime between Easter and the end of the school year, if this model matches the eventual numbers. It is probably going to be easier for the urban centers to set up vaccination centers and plans than rural areas. Maybe we have really big centers in the cities and people drive in to get shots. Even with the rural folks driving in, I bet this plague goes away in the cities faster than in the country just because it will be easier to get to a vaccination site.

Unknown. They aren't clearly in a high-risk category and aren't clearly not in that category, according to the CDC. The CDC guidelines said that their guidance would be updated as new info arrives, and specifically mentioned pregnancy, so I don't think they've figured that out yet. If you are rural, obese, incarcerated, homeless, or have another underlying condition AND pregnant, well, you're high risk and a Phase 1b'er. Each state is going to come up with their own guidelines based on the CDC guidelines, and counties are going to have guidance based on the state and CDC, so the eventual rules and recommendations could vary from place to place.

I thought it might be helpful to have a separate topic related to the vaccine. If this is too much duplication, mods please delete this thread. I thought it would be good to talk about who can get the vaccine, where they can get it, what side effects people are seeing, and in general what is going on with distribution. The CDC has published vaccine distribution guidelines, and if you care, they are worth reading. They are dividing the timeline into: Phase 1 - Potentially limited supply of COVID-19 vaccine doses available Phase 2 - Large number of vaccine doses available Phase 3 - Sufficient supply of vaccine doses for entire population Who you are will determine if you are eligible for a vaccine in the various phases. Phase 1 is divided into a Phase 1a and a Phase 1b: Phase 1a - Mostly healthcare workers Phase 1b - Other essential workers, people with higher risks, people over 65 If you are eligible to get the vaccine and they have in in stock and you want to get it, it is important to go get it. Both of the first two vaccines can spoil, so if a dose is sitting there and you aren't there to get it, they might have to throw it away. Both vaccines require two shots. It is important to go get that second shot. Who fits in phase 1b and who has to wait until phase 2 might be a sticking point. The "people in higher risks" category includes a lot of folks, maybe more than you would think might be in that category. Hopefully we can quickly get to phase 2 so that we don't spend too long arguing about who is or is not in Phase 1b. Anyway, I'm interested in everyone's experience with the vaccine and especially getting the word out for those that can go get it, so that every dose ends up in an arm rather than in the trash.

The neighbors could all get together and ... I don't know ... buy some tickets or something. Maybe some food. Just a thought. Some folks today have more money than normal because they aren't spending what they usually spend at the Alamo. Just pretend-spend a bit and the locals could stay afloat.

Austin High football plays Westlake Friday night, so yes they have a "game" on the schedule .... if you define "game" to mean a predetermined blowout.

Austin's 7 day average case numbers and daily hospitalization numbers are looking really similar to the middle two weeks of June, right before the big rise. Now would be a great time to stop breathing on each other.