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Texas Jeff

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Everything posted by Texas Jeff

  1. I've got a rising high school junior, so I'm focused on the high school experience. I give teachers a pass on the past spring because they were thrown into it. However now that we've had some time to prep I expect more this fall. Specifically, I would like them to provide direct instruction via zoom for at least part of each classroom period, meaning some kind of lecture, class discussion or some direct interaction and guidance. A lot of teachers in the spring just provided video links and offered office hours. Some videos are OK, like links to math videos to back up what a teacher presented in class. But videos need to supplement learning and not be the primary source of learning. The kids need to have an assigned time to show up for "class" and have some interaction with a teacher and fellow students. After direct instruction, I would like teachers to provide some kind of assignment or activity for the kids to do. Some reading or a problem set or something that can be graded. Give the kids something to accomplish ... at least one thing to do per class per week. And I would like the teachers to grade at least some of the work and provide the kids with feedback. Lots of work today is graded for completion without much feedback, which means some kids turn in poor work and just get a checkmark if something was submitted, even if that something is completely wrong. The kids need to know if they are on track or not on track to master the material. Many high school kids have four classes per day, two before lunch and two after in a long-format "block". I am not asking teachers to keep the kids in a zoom session all morning and all afternoon, but maybe two hours in the morning (one per class), and two more in the afternoon would be enough. That is a four-hour school day. The rest of the time could be used for assignments. Many of these kids have had their extracurriculars put on hold, which sucks socially, but they have more time now for the core subjects than they ever have. I recognize that these are tough times to teach, but school in the spring was not much. It needs to be more rigorous. Some class-time instruction, some homework, and some feedback would be good for now, but it needs to be more than it was.
  2. No they have not and yes they would need a state app. Apple provided sample code for the app and Google provided a sample server, just had to wire it all together. Texas said not so fast my friend....
  3. I assume those are the numbers for Travis County ... if not I apologize. They line up pretty close with the Travis County data. Look at the numbers for the Asian population. They represent 7.2% of the Travis County population yet in your table they represent about 1.1% of all cases. Travis County's website shows the Asian population at around 2% of all cases so far. Mask wearing in the Asian population is more acceptable and a normal way of dealing with outbreaks. I would expect that this population has been wearing masks here in Travis County more than the general public. And their numbers are lower. I am sure there are other factors at play. That is good news. It is some evidence that if we all wear masks, we can dramatically reduce our case counts.
  4. For those of you discussing segregation, there's a map that shows racial identity in America, along with density, by plotting one dot for every person. Here's what it looked like for the 2010 census: https://demographics.virginia.edu/DotMap/index.html
  5. If you check out healthweather.us, they are showing that this outbreak may be centered right now around Austin/San Antonio, the hill country, and areas going south down to the border and coast. Those areas of Texas are showing higher temperatures than the rest of the state. DFW and Houston show elevated temps but not as bad as central and south Texas. Texas as a whole is "hotter" than the surrounding states, indicating more illness.
  6. Me too, they are a nation of rule followers... however... Cases from yesterday among various Texas counties and the Federal Republic of Germany: Travis: 636 Dallas: 570 Bexar: 495 Hidalgo: 402 Tarrant: 393 Friggin' all of Germany: 371 El Paso: 284 Nueces: 188 Williamson: 169 Hays: 117 Harris: 113 They don't have the COVID. BTW, Friggin' all of Italy put up 126 cases yesterday. Still more than Hays, but better than WilCo.
  7. A valid argument there are currently small states, I acknowledge that. I just don't want more of them. Vermont and New Hampshire could be combined and I would be fine with that. I wonder what the maximum ratio of big state population to small state population was in 1789. Was any ratio as high as some of the ones we have today?
  8. Easier to look at 7 day averages and it's not pretty: Today's 7 day average for Travis Co: 322 cases with a 636 on the scorecard for today. 7 days ago: 238 14 days ago: 121 21 days ago: 61 28 days ago: also 61, pretty much flat between 50-60 going back to mid-April Basically up 5x in about three weeks after a really long plateau.
  9. The DC residents should have some ability to vote for representation and similar control over their future that I have. Joining Maryland makes sense to me ... or maybe giving them a rep and allowing them to vote in Maryland's Senate elections, although I can't claim to understand the politics of the area. However, I'm not sure statehood is fair to many of the rest of us. Austin has a million residents and no serious influence in the Senate. Texas citizens have one senator per 14,000,000 people and DC would have one senator per 350,000 people, a ratio of 40:1. Solve the Senate problem and it's a lot more reasonable to me. Without that solution it seems like DC would go from no representation to an outsized influence.
  10. I was a kid during the Carter administration, but I rememberer how the Iranian hostage crisis just took over the news during an election year and whatever Carter tried, it didn't work. Most Americans were not affected day to day, but there were yellow ribbons everywhere supporting the hostages. Ted Koppel had a show after the local news (which became Nightline) with "Day XXX" as the headline and news of the crisis, which after a while wasn't much news at all. At first it was Day 20 and later Day 50 but by the time it was Day 300 it sucked. There was also economic trouble, with high inflation and high interest rates. Times were uncertain. This feels to me like a worse version of those times. Now we are all affected by the shutdown and maybe less than a month away from real sickness and maybe death. A lot of us are out of work, or a paycheck or two away from real trouble. Reagan beat Carter, scared the crap out of the Iranians and the hostage crisis was over. It was a turning point for America; after a year of gloom we had a happy day. The economy turned around by 1983. By 1987 we were all talking about "greed is good" and Wall Street. I'm not glorifying Reagan, he blew up the deficit and got us on track to more and more debt. But he did scare the crap out of Iran, I remember that. But I think Trump is toast, using the 1980 election as a reference. Carter tried and failed to solve his crisis and it took a change in leadership to do that. Trump seems to not be seriously working on solving his crisis; it won't be solved by his administration. America will want to turn the page. Unfortunately Biden can't just scare the crap out of coronavirus.
  11. Sorry if I upset you, I wrote "health care workers" originally and changed it to "health care heroes" because y'all are on the front lines taking risks, trying to save folks and learning how to do it better on the fly. Didn't mean to offend...
  12. Comparing today's Travis County new cases to new cases for today in various European countries: 1. UK: 1221 2. Travis County, Texas: 506 3. Germany: 359 4. Spain: 334 5. Poland: 311 6. Portugal: 292 7. France: 284 8. Italy: 224 Wear a mask people, jeez....
  13. Yesterday in Travis County was the first day over 400 cases, today is the first over 500. Sundays are usually low numbers. The last three Sundays in Travis County: * June 7: 35 cases (this was a pretty low day...) * June 14: 84 cases * June 21: 506 cases Yikes...
  14. Just curious, what effects are you seeing regarding the seasonality of the virus and why do you think that is happening? Mortality does seem to be dropping. Some possible causes I have considered are the higher temps, the higher intensity of sunlight and more hours of sunlight, and behavior patterns in the summer vs in the fall (at the beach vs stuck in school). Hopefully our health care heroes are just getting better at treating this or maybe viral loads aren't as high because of masking/hand washing/distancing. Hopefully the decline in deaths is not seasonal, but I'm interested in thoughts on what might be causing the summer decline in deaths.
  15. SafeGraph's COVID numbers, which track cell phone movement, show a bottom both nationally and in Texas around June 9th. Since then people are staying home a little bit more than before, but the trend is only slightly upward. It is a small effect so far but at least it is trending in a good direction. Hopefully people are getting the message and becoming a bit more cautious. If lower mobility translates to lower cases, we might see a peak in reported cases in Texas maybe 15-22 days (a pure guess) after the bottom in mobility, or somewhere between June 24th and July 1st.
  16. This is probably obvious. When reopening you either get to choose a date-driven policy or a data-driven policy. You don't get to choose both when relaxing restrictions. We picked the date-driven policy because people were evidently sick of staying at home and there was a lot of economic pressure to turn on the machines again. And so here we are... Unfortunately, the latency from super spreader event to folks crashing in hospitals is really long, so data based policy is tough. Getting the test sucks and it takes too long to get a result, aggravating the data problem. We could choose a data based policy based on some leading indicator. Consider if we could randomly deploy thermometers to the public and require everyone to just take your temperature once a day, with an automatic anonymous data report to the cloud. Aggregate the data and decide what to do in real time based on the data coming in. Shut down if it gets hot and relax if it cools off. Or, send some people out to count mask wearing at some sample businesses. If you see mask wearing at 20%, slow down. If you count 90%, maybe open up a bit. Nothing needs to be invented here and there is no magic, just metrics. You could supplement that with a date based policy to further limit the spread. What if we agreed to put in two week "firewalls" every three months where we really tried hard to lockdown, then relaxed more during the other times. This would allow people to plan ahead for a two week break from in-person work and be less disruptive. We could even plan to provide paychecks to people for those two weeks so that they can eat, pay rent, keep going with their lives. You can combine date and data driven policies together to add to the solution, but when you just pick a date-driven policy and ignore the data, you should expect what we have now. It should not be a surprise.
  17. BTW, I screwed that one up ... Paul wrote Hey Jude but John's still pissed that it's playing at a Trump rally. The song after that was "We are the Champions" so add Freddie to the pissed off list...
  18. C-SPAN has a feed from inside the rally. It is currently showing the My Pillow guy taking selfies with guests on the floor while "Hey Jude" plays, everyone sways and John Lennon rolls over in his grave...
  19. Ranch starter pack: 1. Buffalo (the roaming kind) 2. Deer and antelope (capable of playing) 3. Lack of discouraging words 4. Clear skies If located in Texas, you should also add: 1. Stars at night (should be big and bright) 2. Prairie sky (wide and high, but this may be covered by #4 above) 3. Sage (should be in bloom and have a pleasant odor, like perfume -- should remind you of someone you love) 4. Wailing coyotes, rushing rabbits, singing cowboys and bawling dogies, in various quantities I think if you've got all of that you can call it a ranch.
  20. I have been looking at other areas that had protests to see if they are seeing a spike in cases like we are in Texas. So far, it looks like some are and some are not. Texas, going up. DC, going down. Minnesota down. New York down, kinda stable. It's difficult, IMHO, to attribute a rise to the protests right now, unless Texas protesters were just less cautious than other states. Maybe the protest spike isn't yet reflected in the data.
  21. I bought masks from two online locations: https://rendallco.com https://us.takecaresupply.com Both were too big for my kids but fit me great. Lead time was long, like 3-4 weeks between order and arrival. In Austin, I know Mozarts Coffee Roasters and Sue Patrick are selling them online. We bought some at the physical Mozarts location today that fit my kids better, but did not have a pouch for a filter. I bought some filter material from https://filti.com and am cutting pieces of material to stick in the pouch.
  22. One caveat, I think they are using math to estimate recovered cases, rather than actually determining how many have recovered. Something to keep in mind when you look at the state numbers... The math is something like: Take total cases and subtract out the dead. Because they aren't recovered, they are dead. From the remainder, guess than 20% or so probably went to the hospital. Guess than 80% did not. For the 20%, count them as recovered if their case is more than 28 days old. For the 80%, count them as recovered if their cases is more than 14 days old. The recovery estimate is always going to be a function of the total case numbers minus deaths, with some time delay.
  23. Fair enough, but that's a bold strategy .... don't count them when they occur so your numbers are lower then and then dump the data later but say it doesn't count because they should have been counted earlier but were not. Even removing the prisoner cases, 2,622 cases is a single day record for Texas. Hospitalizations statewide also hit a new record and went above 2,500 for the first time.
  24. 4098 new cases in Texas today! Finally made it to the top of the list of states for cases per day. Texas is COVID country....
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