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Texas Jeff

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  1. Yep, I think this is correct ... Travis County has to get back to Stage 1 to remove the mask requirement which means close to zero average new hospital admits over the past seven days. Counties and cities have their own requirements. So we are likely to all stop wearing masks at the same time, but it might be county by county and city by city, at least in Texas.
  2. I was curious about how big these vaccine shipments might be so I looked it up. Pfizer's ultra-cold vaccine comes five doses to a vial, 175 vials to a tray, up to five trays per box. So one box can hold up to 4,375 doses. To get everyone vaccinated in Travis County in six months, we would need about three boxes per day of vaccine. The Army logistics general suggested that cities might get weekly deliveries, so maybe we would get 20 boxes per week. The vaccine is going to come with supply kits. Each kit has materials for 100 injections. No idea how big they are, but we will need about 130 kits a day in Travis County, or about 920 a week. Of course, the kits need no refrigeration, just a closet somewhere. The kit supply could run a bit ahead of the vaccine supply, so long as you had storage. This stuff just isn't that big. Assuming we can get those quantities of vaccine and kits, I think the biggest problem will be local distribution. Who is allowed to get a dose, who needs a second dose, how to sort out all of the super cold vials to get to multiple distribution sites, making sure you have kits and vials at the same place. To me, a big central vaccination site makes the most sense, maybe with some mobile trucks driving around to nursing homes and other less mobile populations. The Erwin Center would be a great spot.
  3. The NY Times has a great vaccine tracker. Make sure you're figuring in second shots when you count doses vs people who are immune. When Pfizer says they have 20 million doses I think they mean they can make 10 million people about 90-95% immune. Hopefully Pfizer and Moderna can get the run rates up, at least for a year or two. Pfizer and BioNTech have a partnership with a goal of producing 1.3 billion doses in 2021, which is just over 100 million/month. Moderna is a much smaller company. Not all of the production will go to the US. The rest of the world wants this crap to end too. So, yep there are likely to be other vaccines out in addition to the ones with results already announced and hopefully they all can scale.
  4. OK, some numbers: Thinking a bit about logistics, we just had an election in Travis County and about 610k voted. To get to 100% COVID vaccinated in Travis County, we're going to have to hit 1.3 millon people 2 times each. That's about 2.6 million shots ... about 4x the number of people who voted. Travis County set up 37 early voting places for about three weeks for the 2020 vote. There were lines, but the lines were not that bad. If we had a goal of getting 100% inoculated over six months at 37 sites county-wide, that would mean about 380 shots per day per site, say 400 per site. Put 10 competent injectors at each site plus another 10 people to process paperwork and each person would have to inject 40 people per day, about one every 12 minutes for an 8 hour shift. That's 800 people county-wide just to inject shots and handle paperwork, for six months. Maybe another 200 people to handle receiving the vaccine, mixing it up, and keeping the sites stocked with stuff. A big effort but doable. The county would be consuming about 15,000 shots a day at that rate and 7,500 people per day would be newly immune, starting about a month after this starts. The US population is about 328 million. About 1 in 257 live in Travis County. So, for Travis to get 15,000 shots per day we need to be making 3.8 million shots a day nationwide, or about 118 million per month. Hmmm, that sounds a little high. I'm not sure what Pfizer/Moderna are going to be able to pump out but maybe that's in the ballpark, maybe by February. So, that's what it looks like with 100% vaccination from January 1st to July 1st. Seems possible. If 30% don't take the vaccine, lines are going to dry up sometime in April. Anyone who wants a vaccine should be able to get one then. We will reach 50% vaccinated around April 1st, and 50% "immune" around a month after that. Activities should shift outside again by March, which will slow the spread. Life looks good starting sometime between Easter and the end of the school year, if this model matches the eventual numbers. It is probably going to be easier for the urban centers to set up vaccination centers and plans than rural areas. Maybe we have really big centers in the cities and people drive in to get shots. Even with the rural folks driving in, I bet this plague goes away in the cities faster than in the country just because it will be easier to get to a vaccination site.
  5. Unknown. They aren't clearly in a high-risk category and aren't clearly not in that category, according to the CDC. The CDC guidelines said that their guidance would be updated as new info arrives, and specifically mentioned pregnancy, so I don't think they've figured that out yet. If you are rural, obese, incarcerated, homeless, or have another underlying condition AND pregnant, well, you're high risk and a Phase 1b'er. Each state is going to come up with their own guidelines based on the CDC guidelines, and counties are going to have guidance based on the state and CDC, so the eventual rules and recommendations could vary from place to place.
  6. I thought it might be helpful to have a separate topic related to the vaccine. If this is too much duplication, mods please delete this thread. I thought it would be good to talk about who can get the vaccine, where they can get it, what side effects people are seeing, and in general what is going on with distribution. The CDC has published vaccine distribution guidelines, and if you care, they are worth reading. They are dividing the timeline into: Phase 1 - Potentially limited supply of COVID-19 vaccine doses available Phase 2 - Large number of vaccine doses available Phase 3 - Sufficient supply of vaccine doses for entire population Who you are will determine if you are eligible for a vaccine in the various phases. Phase 1 is divided into a Phase 1a and a Phase 1b: Phase 1a - Mostly healthcare workers Phase 1b - Other essential workers, people with higher risks, people over 65 If you are eligible to get the vaccine and they have in in stock and you want to get it, it is important to go get it. Both of the first two vaccines can spoil, so if a dose is sitting there and you aren't there to get it, they might have to throw it away. Both vaccines require two shots. It is important to go get that second shot. Who fits in phase 1b and who has to wait until phase 2 might be a sticking point. The "people in higher risks" category includes a lot of folks, maybe more than you would think might be in that category. Hopefully we can quickly get to phase 2 so that we don't spend too long arguing about who is or is not in Phase 1b. Anyway, I'm interested in everyone's experience with the vaccine and especially getting the word out for those that can go get it, so that every dose ends up in an arm rather than in the trash.
  7. The neighbors could all get together and ... I don't know ... buy some tickets or something. Maybe some food. Just a thought. Some folks today have more money than normal because they aren't spending what they usually spend at the Alamo. Just pretend-spend a bit and the locals could stay afloat.
  8. Austin High football plays Westlake Friday night, so yes they have a "game" on the schedule .... if you define "game" to mean a predetermined blowout.
  9. Austin's 7 day average case numbers and daily hospitalization numbers are looking really similar to the middle two weeks of June, right before the big rise. Now would be a great time to stop breathing on each other.
  10. Not sure if we've covered this already, but Rudy's first witness at the Four Seasons Landscaping press conference was a convicted sex offender from New Jersey.
  11. In the all-new Yeti 747. Smaller Yeti 737's will be available for distribution to medium sized towns. Tiny towns will be visited by the Yeti Citation. If that doesn't work ... maybe Santa? He's used to the cold and has time on his hands after the big rush in late Dec. Seriously, does anyone know why this vaccine needs to be kept that cold?
  12. I was on their campus this morning. Unbelievable facilities. They have four on-campus turf fields. I think Austin ISD has five turf fields in the entire district right now, including three shared stadiums. Even the softball field looked great and they are building a huge robotics facility. Westlake has one or two pre-district possibly competitive games of their choice, plus Lake Travis, plus the playoffs. Everyone else is cannon fodder. They usually end up in the smaller school playoff which makes the bracket easier. I don't see how anyone in the region other than LT will ever play a competitive game.
  13. Most of the LHB scholarships come from donations that LHAB members have made over the years, going back to the 60s. They literally "pass the hat" at reunions for donations. I think it's the same hat from decades ago. There are lots of little LHB/LHAB traditions and the alumni hat is one of them. The scholarships are small although they are growing. I think most of them are 100's of dollars. No one is doing it for the scholarship. LHB is an awesome place to meet people from across the university, have fun and do something a little different if music is not your major. I'm not that plugged in to alumni band, but I think LHAB is trying to give out small scholarships to many band members, so that eventually everyone gets a little bit. Standing with your friends in the middle of the band after a win, having the football team come over while celebrating, and then playing the Eyes of Texas is an awesome experience. I wish everyone could have it.
  14. 1. Issue pardons, pardons, and more pardons. 2. Give Medals of Honor out like candy to friends and family. 3. Start signing whatever happens to be around him and selling the Sharpies online.
  15. If that post-it note is accurate and the remaining county mail-in percentages match the already counted mail-in percentages for each county, then Biden will will Georgia by 4400 votes.
  16. 270towin has a simulator that lets you see how tomorrow night might play out: https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/ You push "Run Simulation" and watch the results roll in by poll closing time. If your guy doesn't win, push "Run Simulation" until they do!
  17. Under Vice President Joe Biden, face mask sales were at a record low! Now we've brought those jobs back, we're cranking 'em out! In just seven months, we've produced billions and billions of face masks. Everyone's buying them, nobody's ever seen anything like this! Nobody said we could do it but we did it, bigger than anyone's ever seen before.
  18. My uncle, a small business owner, said that the goal of every person in corporate America was to never open the door and hear "Hello, I'm Mike Wallace with 60 Minutes, do you have time for a few questions?". He said if you hear that you're screwed. Did Trump not know that 60 Minutes has been asking tough questions since forever?
  19. I think there is a big wave already underway in Texas and it's only showing up in the hospitalized data. The hospital numbers for both Texas and Travis County are up sharply but overall case numbers are not spiking in the same way. Pandemic fatigue has set in and people are just blowing off getting tested. Now would be a great time to deploy those 15 minute $5 tests. Where are they?
  20. Just voted at the Austin Rec Center (near House Park). Zero line at 6pm. Walked right up. Austin ISD is hosting a football game but there is a ton of parking in the ACC garage next door.
  21. Austin ISD spends about 11 cents building and repairing schools for 75,000 students, about 59 cents on everything else, and is forced to give about 41 cents to the State of Texas. If you are going to show Prop A as a separate bar from the City of Austin then you should make recapture separate from AISD funding. Austin ISD also does not get the benefit of a 1% sales tax. Cap Metro will get $250 million from that tax just next year, even if zero passengers board a bus.
  22. I saw a post from a Travis County poll worker that said that the wait times are really a rough guess. If you want, you can help the poll workers and all of us by starting a stopwatch when you get in line, then telling the poll worker how long you waited in line once you get to the front. I think they can enter that info into the system rather than having to guess at the wait time. Something you can do to help others while you are waiting in line...
  23. When there's something strange... In your briefing room... Who you gonna call? COVID BUSTERS!
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