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Texas Jeff

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Everything posted by Texas Jeff

  1. IHME just updated their model and added a few new features: All of US: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Just Texas: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas They are now estimating total infections vs reported infections and also showing social distancing and testing numbers.
  2. Man that second shot is totally the Millennium Falcon ... headed for Earth a long time ago from a galaxy far far away
  3. Dude's complain-tweeting about reporters receiving "Noble prizes" when I think he means "Nobel prizes" and I think he also means "Pulitzer prizes"
  4. Pro tip: The lines at Central Market on north Lamar seem to be shorter later in the day. Not sure if this holds true for other stores or not.
  5. "The Death of Stalin" is now on Netflix, if you missed it. It's a dark comedy about ... the death of Stalin.
  6. Carrollton/Farmers Branch ISD names most of their schools after obscure former administrators so that when you tell people what high school you went to, no one has ever heard of your school. Almost everyone I know who stayed around Carrollton moved to Frisco, home of about forty 5A schools.
  7. It goes. Sometimes it doesn't go...
  8. Ha ha, but I'm not that Jeff. I might be able to kick a wind-aided extra point.
  9. Try subscribing to the podcast here: https://omny.fm/shows/the-jeff-ward-show
  10. The valuations only really determine how much tax you will pay relative to everyone else. Looks like this year is mostly frozen for residential. The real kicker will be when tax rates are set, which determines how much you'll pay. Will our city and county government have the courage to raise taxes as much as the legally can during a recession? I'm thinking yes... They will say if they don't raise it to the max they lose out on the ability to raise it even higher in later years.
  11. The survey results are here https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hgp-3ol9cEvQXjuoaRrMJf1rlJWJSZRO/view The question you are talking about was 19A. They polled 2,020 people, 694 identified as Democrats, 579 identified as independent, 517 identified as Republicans. I guess some people did not identify with any of those three categories, because those last three numbers do not add up to the total surveyed. About 413 R's said they trust Donald Trump for medical information about the outbreak (80% of 517) but only 747 people out of the total said they did (37% of 2020). So only 334 out of the 1503 non-Republicans in the survey said they trust Donald Trump for medical information (22%).
  12. If you're not a big runner but want exercise ... or if your favorite trail is now closed, you can build your own 5k using the gmaps pedometer: https://www.gmap-pedometer.com Start at your house and plot a route through your neighborhood that adds up to 5k, or however far you want to go. Then go walk or run it. You'll likely be separated from other folks since not everyone is on the same trail, and at the end you can say you did a 5k. You can preview the elevation change and make it hard or easy. My favorite route goes out away from my house a bit, then circles back and spends the last half mile going around streets near my house, if I decide to cut it short.
  13. The numbers look a lot better for Texas, we don't come close to running out of ICU beds or hospital beds in their new model. The old model had a ICU shortage for about two weeks in mid-April. The peak for Texas was pulled in from around May 5th to April 19th and the tail going into May is shorter. Great news!
  14. You can read the law here: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239/FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.pdf See Sec 2201 starting on page 144. The money is a tax credit for tax year 2020, but they are giving checks to taxpayers now. It looks to me like the $500 per kid is lumped in with the $1200 (or $2400 for married folks) to figure the amount of your credit. It starts to phase out at $75,000 AGI for an individual, $112,500 for a head of household, and $150,000 for a joint return. I think they are going to guess the amount of your credit due based on a previous year's tax return when they send you a check, but ultimately you will see some math on your 2020 taxes to figure out what the actual credit should have been.
  15. C'mon Pittsburgh, get creative... ... The Steel Corona Curtain ... The Immaculate Injection
  16. Texas just updated their numbers. They recorded 500 new positives and 223 new tests. Somehow that math seems wrong... The percentage of tests that are positive has been rising for four straight days now.
  17. Their website models "normal" flu behavior, so it decreases over time during the spring. It declares an area abnormally high if the incidence of fever is higher than what would be expected at this time of year according to the model, and abnormally low if lower... It is showing that there was an abnormal spike higher than expected from the end of Feb until about eight days ago, then the trend reversed, and now it is lower than expected. COVID-19 may explain the higher spike. More distancing or simply more people taking their temperature may explain the lower spike. Maybe this is causing normal flu season to end a little early, or maybe COVID infections are dropping, or both. But the data went higher than the model and is now lower than the model, indicating that something may have happened to increase disease and we may be responding to stop it. It's pretty cool that we can measure it.
  18. Our social distancing and shutdown efforts may be having an effect, according to the "US health weather map" https://healthweather.us/ Kinsa makes wifi thermometers and uses the collected data to forecast hot spots of disease. They make a public national "weather map" showing trends and with the ability to drill down to any county. Around Feb 29th, the amount of people with a high fever started to increase and deviate from their expected seasonal model. The deviation kept getting worse until about Mar 19th. The trend then reversed sharply, fell through the expected range, and is now below the expected range for this time of year. If you drill down to counties, you can see this happening all over the country, but in different degrees. So, something is happening. Either normally healthy people are taking their temperature more than expected and the weather map does not account for that, or social distancing is working, or some other factor is at play.
  19. Our social distancing and shutdown efforts may be having an effect, according to the "US health weather map" https://healthweather.us/ Kinsa makes wifi thermometers and uses the collected data to forecast hot spots of disease. They make a public national "weather map" showing trends and with the ability to drill down to any county. Around Feb 29th, the amount of people with a high fever started to increase and deviate from their expected seasonal model. The deviation kept getting worse until about Mar 19th. The trend then reversed sharply, fell through the expected range, and is now below the expected range for this time of year. If you drill down to counties, you can see this happening all over the country, but in different degrees. So, something is happening. Either normally healthy people are taking their temperature more than expected and the weather map does not account for that, or social distancing is working, or some other factor is at play. (sorry folks, I meant to post this in the main thread!)
  20. Sorry, I messed up the math.. 11% in Travis Co with 4% of the population...
  21. Texas has a dashboard a lot like the Johns Hopkins dashboard, but not as informative (no data over time): https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83 Using that data, right now 79 of 715 cases (11%) are in Travis Co. But, Travis Co has about 4% of the state's population. So, is Travis Co simply more disease-ridden than the rest of the state or simply testing more and finding more cases? Honestly, I could go either way on that one...
  22. 86 cases in Austin as of 7pm today. That's a great number if that's it for today... The previous four days were +18,+17,+4,+17 cases. Today was +7, lowest number of new cases in six days.
  23. Fauci was on CNN and was asked about not being there every day. He said they are trying to rotate people at the pressers because everyone has their normal role to play, it takes time to do them and he has duties at the NIH. He said he was shuttling between the NIH and the White House a bunch and that he was working with the NIH folks on vaccine trials, that some days he just needed to be present at NIH to keep progress going. He said he was fine and not to worry, but don't expect him to appear in the briefing room every day.
  24. One more chart about testing. I was curious to know what percentage of the population has been tested, and the positive test rate for each state. My data is 2-3 days old and I accidently grabbed the 2010 state populations instead of the 2019 populations, so it's a little off, but here's what it looks like: The purple diamond is Washington, the red circle is New York, the green triangle is California and the orange square is Texas. Texas is not testing much but also not seeing a big positive rate. I would like to see us testing more but either they are not finding the positives or we have a low infection rate at the moment. New York is having a huge outbreak even with a 20% positive rate. You might want to avoid the four dots on the right (low test rate, high positive rate) ... New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio and Delaware. The little dot with high testing rate but low positive rate (to the left of the red circle -- California) is New Mexico, a safe place to be.
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