40acredropout

3-1-1 on year so far. Full card this week. U60.5 LaTech @ Mizzou O51 WVU @ Pitt Purdue +3.5 v Penn State O52.5 NMSU @ Minnesota U51.5 Temple @ Duke Houston -4.5 @ UTSA BYU -11.5 @ USF U57.5 Troy @ Ole Miss Utah -3 @ Florida O54 Army @ Coastal Kentucky -16.5 v Miami (OH) Georgia State +12.5 @ South Carolina Boise State +3 @ Oregon State bets places but please still tell me why I’m going to lose.

Your persuasion skills are slipping.

I've spent a lot of time thinking about this one. I'm probably trying to build a case around my fairly uninformed bet but this is what I've come up with. X-Factor here is Minnesota bringing back Kirk Ciarrocca as OC. He was in same position at MINN from 2017-2019 and was also Fleck's OC at WMU from 2013 to 2016. Look at Fleck's teams PPG with Ciarocca (2013-2019) and since (2020-2021): 2013 WMU- 17.2 2014 WMU- 33.8 2015 WMU- 36.0 2016 WMU- 41.6 2017 MINN- 22.1 2018 MINN- 28.9 2019 MINN- 34.1 2020 MINN- 27.3 2021 MINN- 25.5 He comes back to right the ship. Of note, QB Tanner Morgan is in his 6th year and will be leading the offense. Look at Morgan's year over year decline within the offense and notice what he did in 2019 (Ciarrocca's last season calling plays): They only return one O-lineman which is concerning but I have to think they will be able to hold their own against NMSU. Their #1 WR and best RB are both back so there is skill talent there. Here's to the over on this one and Fleck bitch slapping Jerry in public.

“See babe…I told you it wouldn’t be like what you thought. Lot of normal, smart, funn-" "Muledick?" "Oh hey, Derka.. meet my gf”

Travel logistics are obviously a challenge. No clue on if it would ever happen or not but if it did, I don't see recruiting being an issue. Woman's roster size is 17, assuming men's would be same. UT / Austin seems like a super attractive option to recruits considering half of the 54 programs are tiny ass colleges you've barely heard. Just based off RPI, it appears talent flocks to the prestigious / brand name schools in cool places... shocker:

From AVCA: https://www.avca.org/maps/college-mens-programs.html

That would be fucking awesome. Would it make sense though? Looks like there are only 54 men's indoor programs, solid amount of schools I've never heard of, and the closest on a map is... Grand Canyon?

This is great. Will they play at IM sand courts or is there a better spot I'm not thinking of? No clue if they could be brought up to the quality needed to host an event but it would be pretty fucking cool if they could host a tournament at Zilker with skyline. I know they built up stands around courts at Krieg for AVP Open in Austin.

In. Let me know if you didn't receive Paypal.

We will know we are living in some sick, fucked up simulation when new Texas HC Garry Patterson hires his buddy Jerry Kill onto his staff.

Man, I'm jazzed up for this weekend. Will be in Columbus for the ND @ OSU game. Can't stand either team, but go to a random game every year with my best friends from growing up. Will be tough to top doing that and then Texas vs. Bama the very next week. As for other games... the obvious match-ups have been mentioned above but two other games/story lines I thought were fun: Army @ (-2) Coastal Carolina One of my favorite elements of college football is the contrasting styles you see. While both teams were top 15 in rushing % last season, they could not look much more different. Coastal has McCall back at QB but... not much else. They rank 129th in returning team production. Army doesn't fare too much better (89th) Definitely two scrappy programs... I think this will be fun to watch. NMSU @ (-36.5) Minnesota- Jerry Kill medically retired in 2015 and has spent the last 7 years publicly bad mouthing TJ Fleck Most recently, said he wasn't sure if he'd shake hands with Fleck. Not saying he's right or wrong, but at least makes it interesting. NMSU is dog shit. 1-10 last season against FBS teams. On average, lost by 20 points per game. They also bring back nothing, ranking 116th in returning production (Minn at 50th). This is Kill's first season. Fleck has downplayed any drama but you know he wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. By SP+, Minnesota (31) is 100 teams better than NMSU (131). Same as Tennessee (10) and Ball States (110). Vegas has Minnesota at 36.5 point favorites, compared to Tennessee at 33.5. Tennessee is actually capable of scoring in bunches. Is Vegas pricing in an old fashion grudge fuck?

You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points. But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota. Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed. Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. And he can. NMSU is very much ass. 1-10 last year against FBS teams. They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average. They gave up 40.9 points per game. I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over. I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here. Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.

I'm sure I talk myself into adding more but what I have so far for Week 1: U60.5 La Tech at Mizzou O51 WVU at Pitt O52.5 NMSU at Minnesota U51.5 Temple at Duke Houston -4.5 at UTSA BYU -11.5 at USF Utah -3 at Florida Kentucky -16.5 vs Miami (OH) Boise State +3 at Oregon State

Second season in a row that I've lost my opening bet because of Nebraska. Lesson fucking learned lol. Starting to dig into Week 1 matchups a little bit. Right now I'm liking Houston -4 at UTSA and BYU - 11.5 at South Florida. Road favorites... I think I'm a sucker because that definitely seems to be one of my tendencies. Speaking of tendencies... I looked back at my picks from last season and I need to start doing more O/U betting. Was 14-6 on those (70%) and then only 33-34 on picking winners against the spread.

Momma didn't raise no bitch, did she @immamac?

So the TE's actually do read the board?

I alluded to it in Fall Camp thread but one of biggest reaons for optimism (IMO) is Quinn should be a day 1 upgrade at throwing the deep ball. Not to pile on Casey, but his 2021 ranks among 125 FBS QB's with at least 25 deep ball attempts (20+ yards): Accuracy %: 95th Turnover Worthy Play %: 104th Big Throw Rate: 78th Average Time to Throw: 24th, which makes above even shittier. Anybody who watched games knows that his poor performance in this area wasn't some function of scheme or opportunity. Really sucks we won't get to see Neyor as a deep weapon but our ability to keep defenses more honest should be a lot better anyway. Respect the home run threat with deeper safeties or keep a cleaner box for Bijan. Choose your shit sandwich.

Nice- great place to visit. Send Casey our best.

Nothing we didn’t already know but Gotdam Sam got that dawg in him. Don’t have an NFL team and don’t really typically care to watch but have a feeling Sam might change that.

If Quinn’s feel for the deep ball is half way as good as advertised I think people here are going to be very pleasantly surprised with what we are going to be able to dial up offensively. Don’t have it in front of me but looked earlier and of something like 120ish QB’s with 20+ deep passing attempts (20+ yards), Casey ranked 98th last year in adjusted completion percentage ((completions + drops) / attempts). While he did dial up a nice deep ball on his derp derp 3rd down conversion today, I also counted 3 deep balls that were easy TD’s if he put it anywhere fucking close to his receiver. Which he didn’t. Just like all of last year.

Wait, what? What’s the story on this? Sorry if I missed this somewhere.

Suddenly?

Here we go. Hit 54% on my picks last season but was (am) a regard and my bet amount allocation put me down overall on the year. This year is different... I've got: Nebraska -13 v Northwestern Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii U44 Wyoming v Illinois U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU UNT PK @ UTEP Placed bets Thursday... line moved in my favor on 4/5 which is validating. But doesn't make a shit... feels like I end up losing those ones way more often than I think I will. Lets go!!

Woke up like a kid on Christmas. God I love college football.

I’m ashamed to admit that the one and only time I tried a curry dish was a decade ago at Jester City Limits. Probably a poor introduction.