40acredropout

I mean… Nicole did just tell us she got a $9k raise. I didn’t think it was that far fetched.

Yeah... pretty bad take. I don't think anybody complaining about talent level is oblivious to where our recruiting classes have ranked. Recruiting services miss, players don't develop and players leave. 247 composite talent rankings at least accounts for transfers/departures but it still is far from perfect. Yes, we have some exciting young talent. But look at what is left of our highly rated 2018 and 2019 classes. Those are the 4th and 5th year guys who should be the heart and foundation of our team. There's 14 of them left. I don't have the answer but I'm willing to bet that is a way smaller number than other healthy programs. Then there's the part where half of them fucking suck. There's also a reason that the majority of the former 4/5*'s transferring out this offseason ended up at places like SMU, Houston, Sam Houston State, or Sacramento State. Previous staff did not know how to assess talent and/or develop it.

This is what I'm talking about. Really? An argument doesn't exist to support idea of him being a good coach? UW in 5 seasons before Sark and during Sark's tenure: WINS: 1-2-5-4-0 -> 5-7-7-7-9 RECRUITING RANK: 23-66-35-36-24 -> 68-28-23-21-18 Is that not the body of work of a good coach? I'm not trying to play gotcha. Really- what would Sark had to have done at UW for you to have considered him a good coach? Yes- wheels fell off at USC. After he won 9 games in year 1 with scholarship sanctions. I completely disagree with the notion that an argument cannot be made that Sark has demonstrated himself to be a good coach. Are we now disagreeing on the definition of good? Maybe. I see someone who has shown they are more than capable and could be a winner at Texas. I'm not "insisting he will be" successful. We don't know yet. Which again, is my whole fucking point. I'm pushing back on this idea that any optimism could not possibly be rooted in fact or reason.

As long as people continue to claim as a FACT that Sark cannot possibly be a good coach because (in his first season) he dropped 6 in a row, including to Kansas at home, I'm going to bring it up. Because that argument is fucking stupid. You point out how Saban won a national championship prior to his UL-Monroe oopsie... it validates my point. We obviously disagree on what we think Sark's resume says about him. That's fine. I don't really have the appetite to spar with you on that. I'm fucking retarded and it gives me a headache trying to anticipate the ways you'll shit all over every thing I type. I've laid out in previous posts why there's reason to believe he proved himself a capable head coach, given the circumstances. All I'm really fucking saying is that it's too early to know what Sark is going to be at Texas. I know you aren't refuting that, but others 1000% are. At this point, sound reasoning and logic can support both pessimistic and optimistic viewpoints. You obviously think your position is superior, but stop acting like anybody who disagrees is solely wish casting and pumping sunshine out of their ass.

I'll be labeled a sunshine pumping Sark apologist but I still think it's way too early to tell what we have in Sark. Called "Seven Win Steve" like it's all he could possibly be. Zero room for nuance. The UW program he inherited averaged 2.4 wins in the 5 seasons prior to him taking over and winning 5, 7, 7, 7 and 8 games. He inherited a USC program that was down to 44 scholarship players in the bowl game before he took over. Believe the scholarship count was at like 65 in his first season in which he won 9 games. What it would've ended up like if not for his personal failures, who knows. Saban went on a 4 game death spiral and lost to UL-Monroe at home in his first season. Is it also a statement of fact that a good coach couldn't possibly do that? Lets just be patient and see. Sark has the endorsement of several elite football minds. He knows as well as anybody what a elite program looks like. And whether you want to give him credit or not for recent recruiting / NIL / portal windfalls, it is also a statement of fact that he is accumulating elite talent.

Fun tidbit, Gary seems to know something about bounce back seasons at TCU: 2004 (5-6) -> 2005 (11-1) - 6 Game Improvement 2013 (4-8) -> 2014 (12-1) - 8 Game Improvement 2016 (6-7) -> 2017 (11-3) - 5 Game Improvement

Since 2006: Teams see YOY increase of 5+ wins: 126 times, 7.9 per season. Teams see YOY increase of 5+ wins, reach 10+ total wins: 66 times, 4.1 per season Why not us, motherfuckers? Notes: Ignoring the 6 consecutive losses because I don't have the data Filtered by min of 5+ losses in previous season (controls for most COVID weirdness)

We're back motherfuckers. My favorite play of week 0: Nebraska -13 v. Northwestern (in Dublin) Last Season: Both teams 3-9. Nebraska 6th ranked SOS vs. 66th for NW Nebraska won head-to-head meeting by 49 points Both 0-7 against mutual opponents. Average margin of defeat: 5.7 and 22.0, respectively Returning production: Connelly's SP+ Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 44, 54, 33 Northwestern- 69, 107, 60 note this weighs returning players (plus transfers) and also weighs quality of recent recruiting Action Network's Transferring Assets & Returning Production Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 33, 28, 46 Northwestern- 60, 70, 61 Other notes: Nebraska's scoring offense held them back last season (73rd points/play, 79th points/gm, 23rd yards/play, 71st turnovers/game) They trade out Casey for Adrian Martinez which I think is an upgrade, assuming health. Also bring in Pitt's OC who should open offense up a bit and I think help with scoring. NW is likely starting Hilinski at QB who was... not good last season. Ranked 150 out of 156 FBS QB's, per PFF player grades. Yes, fuck Casey. But otherwise, tell me why I'm wrong.

Oh shit, good point. So it's completely irrelevant. Zero room for nuance here.

47-13, good guys. Bijan- 123 total yards- 89 rushing, 34 receiving.

Bold. I knew you were on something today.

Trying to change the facts? Ok fine, toss out my question of how Tom would have fared in 2021. Nevermind that this is Surly and all we do is hypothesize. It felt relevant to the discussion at hand (comparing the two coaches) when we are judging Sark's 2021 results which are inextricably linked to the roster he inherited from Tom. And roster management is... you know, a fairly important component of being a HC. And I pointed out that Tom needed a last second FG to escape a home loss to KU. In his 3rd year in the program. I pointed this out in response to seeing Sark critics using a Kansas loss as indisputable proof that a guy doesn't meet the Texas standard. How is pointing that out trying to change facts?

You think Herman puts together a winning record last season? No Sam. Roster ranked 115th in returning production. Same glaring fucking holes on defense he was responsible for. "Ohhmergurd but Sark lost to Kansas." Fuckface almost and probably should've put up an L at home to Kansas in his third year on campus.

I appreciate your enthusiasm but you must be high as fucking balls. But since Surly is for entertainment I want to give your argument a little more juice. While QBR likely fails to fully capture VY's dynamic skillset, he put up a 86.1 QBR in 2005. People are putting up an emotional hedge with QE since he's effectively a true freshman who didn't play his senior year of HS. Well... I can only think of one other player who fits that profile that played meaningful snaps in their freshman season: Caleb Williams. He happened to put up an 86.5 QBR last season.

Agiye, come on man.

Thank you for case study on Cox. I don't think it's exactly apples-to-apples (his recruitment out of HS was derailed by an ACL injury, had to redshirt as he had been a QB in high school, but then produced immediately at his FCS school), but nonetheless it is a good example of an FCS guy stepping in and producing. "Without getting significantly better at LB, I don't see the defense materially improving" is what I said and I stand by that. I don't know if I see a "significantly improved" unit but I'm not an X's and O's genius so will come as no surprise if I'm wrong. What I see: Ford was just okay last season. I can see him improving but I do not see him as an all-conference talent. Overshown took a big step back last season- a rebound is more likely than not. DTD - nobody knows. I understand your expectation for material improvement over Brock but we will need to see it. If he balls out, he will be my favorite player on defense. You are going to have to get snaps out of guys who aren't your starters. Who do we have after those 3? Richardson, Brock, Gbenda, Bush. And two freshmen who I wouldn't expect to contribute right away. I do not feel great about that group providing relief or stepping in for meaningful playing time if one of the starters goes down. While the top 3 names may seem like an improvement over last season, I still think our depth is suspect.

I'm not writing Ford off and would expect improvement there. And I think Overshown bounces back. But that's two guys. You need 4-5 guys over the course of a season. DTD didn't produce until his 4th season at an FCS program (I acknowledge JMU is a solid program). His big season last year was in his 5th year on campus. He is a guy who had to wait his turn on a roster of FCS talent. To his credit, he seized the opportunity and produced. But I'm sorry, I don't think it is absurd to question how that guys productivity translates when put in a brand new system, trading out FCS competition for Alabama, OU and other P5 rosters.

There is a difference between saying our defense is going to suck forever and looking at this roster and reasonably expecting us to suck balls again in 2022. This was our defense last year: Points per Play - 93rd Yards per Play - 100th Turnovers per Game - 99th Sack % - 103rd 3rd Down Conversion% - 94th Red Zone Scoring % - 93rd Punts per Play - 85th That wasn't a young unit being thrown into the fire. 65% of defensive snaps were taken by 4th+ year players. This won't be a brand new defense. Returning players account for 72% of snaps from last season. We have an incoming freshman class and the only two portal additions are a FCS LB and inexperienced 2nd year CB. Is it reasonable to expect marginal improvement due to a 2nd year in PK's system or GP being added to the mix? Sure, maybe. Addition by subtraction sending guys like Foster packing? Maybe. I really don't think the lack of talent at LB can be overstated. Tell me how you see that unit being materially better. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see DTB moving the needle. Without getting significantly better at LB, I don't see the defense materially improving. Hope I'm wrong.

There's a lot more natural talent at edge than LB. The lack of talent at LB is the very reason I pushed back on idea of that unit reaching top 30 level production, even in a best-case scenario. We know damn well high recruiting rankings don't equal production (or the inverse) but I think they're worthy data points in assessing raw talent. Take a look at the pedigree of everyone in the LB room not named Overshown or Gbenda: 5 of 7 veteran LB's ranked outside top 1200 as recruits. Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and OU have signed 219 LB's since 2005. Those four schools during a 18 year stretch have signed 1 LB outside the top 1200. Think about that for a minute.

For fuck sake! Using those PFF metrics above, Overshown belongs on the 118th ranked LB unit (384/422x130) and Ford would be on 79th ranked unit. And you’re adding an undersized FCS linebacker. Acting like top 30 production out of that group is a reasonable best-case scenario is like me claiming that fucking Sydney Sweeney is a best-case scenario for my weekend.

Damn... we were on her case years ago. Surly sleuthing never ceases to amaze me: edit- @smuggs already dug it up in APD Booking thread.

LB at top 30 is biggest stretch to me. PFF player grade ranks (Big 12 and National): Overshown: 29/31, 384/422 Brock: 31/31, 421/422 (!) Ford: 17/31, 256/422 I’ve seen ppl shit all over PFF player grades but this doesn’t feel that off from the eyeball test. Can’t imagine an off-season plus a 5’9 FCS transfer is going to elevate performance to top 30 level. Maybe top 50 if things go really well?

Fuck. Y'all are welcome! Lets beat Bama, Quinn!